Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

JMA wants to slam the big -NAO in December....we've seen this from a few seasonals. I'm skeptical of seasonal models but if there's a theme that starts emerging, I want to see if it actually verifies.

 

 

That is a pretty prevalent theme.

I agree RE your stance on seasonal guidance; while the overall track record warrants a healthy dose of skepticism, they are tools from which you can elicit salient clues.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a pretty prevalent theme.

I agree RE your stance on seasonal guidance; while the overall track record warrants a healthy dose of skepticism, they are tools from which you can elicit salient clues.

Last season featured the same but the damn pna forced shortwaves into a meat grinder upon approach. If we can reduce the troughs in the SW this time, we’ll have a December to remember. 

[ORH_wxman]

48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Last season featured the same but the damn pna forced shortwaves into a meat grinder upon approach. If we can reduce the troughs in the SW this time, we’ll have a December to remember. 

We didn’t have a very poleward Aleutian ridge either last December. We still could’ve done well with a slightly less ridiculous PNA trough out west, but a much better EPO region would’ve made things a lot easier. You push the meat grinder region further southeast in that scenario….and we end up a lot colder with a little more space to maintain shortwaves. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

JMA wants to slam the big -NAO in December....we've seen this from a few seasonals. I'm skeptical of seasonal models but if there's a theme that starts emerging, I want to see if it actually verifies.

 

 

 

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a pretty prevalent theme.

I agree RE your stance on seasonal guidance; while the overall track record warrants a healthy dose of skepticism, they are tools from which you can elicit salient clues.

Count the CFS in on the early start to winter-NAO train...EURO, French, JMA and CFS.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Count the CFS in on the early start to winter-NAO train...EURO, French, JMA and CFS.

 

95/96 incoming?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

95/96 incoming?

Nah, nah maybe just Novie through January....more of a Feb 2015 and March 2018 second half.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, nah maybe just Novie through January....more of a Feb 2015 and March 2018 second half.

So you’re thinking Feb 15 and March 18 during November through January?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you’re thinking Feb 15 and March 18 during November through January?  

Nope...I'm thinking 1995-1996 like Novie through January, transitioning to Feb 2015 and then March 2018.....

 

 

 

And them I'm changing my initials to JB.

[ORH_wxman]

We're definitely overdue for a big -NAO December....haven't had one since the back to back jobs in 2009 and 2010.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're definitely overdue for a big -NAO December....haven't had one since the back to back jobs in 2009 and 2010.

This is also in accordance with central-based la nina climo.

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope...I'm thinking 1995-1996 like Novie through January, transitioning to Feb 2015 and then March 2018.....

 

 

 

And them I'm changing my initials to JB.

Bahahaha…..I was like what’s this guy saying here????  .    Gotcha. Lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Bahahaha…..I was like what’s this guy saying here????  .    Gotcha. Lol. 

In all seriousness, I don't think this season will suck.....IMBY porkies not withstanding.

[Typhoon Tip]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope...I'm thinking 1995-1996 like Novie through January, transitioning to Feb 2015 and then March 2018.....

 

And during that entire 5 months span ... the world mean experiences 2 or 3 of those months as the warmest ever recorded, and the other 2 or 3 in 2nd or 3rd place, while we are enabled in our little denial bubble.

no doubt. 

[WinterWolf]

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And during that entire 5 months span ... the world mean experiences 2 or 3 of those months as the warmest ever recorded, and the other 2 or 3 in 2nd or 3rd place, while we are enabled in our little denial bubble.

no doubt. 

Lol…hey when it’s warm in one place, it’s cold some place else..I’ll take my chances/roll the dice with a -NAO to start off the winter like the some modeling is showing.  If it snows in our bubble it’s all good. 

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…hey when it’s warm in one place, it’s cold some place else..I’ll take my chances/roll the dice with a -NAO to start off the winter like the some modeling is showing.  If it snows in our bubble it’s all good. 

I didn't renew my VT camp lease. Big NE winter incoming.  

[ORH_wxman]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…hey when it’s warm in one place, it’s cold some place else..I’ll take my chances/roll the dice with a -NAO to start off the winter like the some modeling is showing.  If it snows in our bubble it’s all good. 

The northeast has actually been one of the warmest regions relative to average in the entire country since the 2015 snow/cold blitz. So a little regression on that front wouldn’t be surprising. 

[raindancewx]

On 3/15/2022 at 12:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My early money on a weak to perhaps moderate el nino....perhaps modified version of 1976-1977, 2002-2003, or 1986-1987.

While my snowfall forecasts have been decent overall, they have definitely been somewhat "hit or miss"....but my ENSO calls have been pretty lethal.

I mean...honest to god this is the stuff that aggravates me.  Everyone is wrong, but you claim to be right now matter how perfectly opposite you get things. That's the only thing that consistently pisses me off - the dishonesty of it all. You were dead sure even into May, even June of an El Nino this year weren't you? Even with all of the giant flashing lights showing the opposite? I had January warm last year - but I've never once claimed it was some kind of amazing call, I was dead wrong. It is interesting that no one chimed in to suggest you had original ideas though isn't it? I do genuinely think you're an idiot, but that's not the reason I get angry.

I do find it funny when people with 50,000-100,000 posts on a weather forum claim I'm the one who is socially inept. Most of you literally don't have anything better to do than this stuff? Really? Do you just not value face to face interactions or what? It's hard to think of a bigger waste of time than posting here excessively. Whether you're perfect or a moron, the weather does what the weather does.

I'm actually getting pretty bored with all of this stuff. Going to delete all of my stuff in a few years once I retire permanently. I realized a few months that even though I'm already in the ~top 5% of wealth by American standards, I could really live like a king in Mexico - so I've been rummaging around that country looking for fun places to live and buy properties for much of the past year. Once I've finished my exploration of the 32 states in a few years, I'll pick five or six spots to buy buildings, and you all can go back to predicting severe cold/snow every winter without a peep from me.

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I mean...honest to god this is the stuff that aggravates me.  Everyone is wrong, but you claim to be right now matter how perfectly opposite you get things. That's the only thing that consistently pisses me off - the dishonesty of it all. You were dead sure even into May, even June of an El Nino this year weren't you? Even with all of the giant flashing lights showing the opposite? I had January warm last year - but I've never once claimed it was some kind of amazing call, I was dead wrong. It is interesting that no one chimed in to suggest you had original ideas though isn't it? I do genuinely think you're an idiot, but that's not the reason I get angry.

I do find it funny when people with 50,000-100,000 posts on a weather forum claim I'm the one who is socially inept. Most of you literally don't have anything better to do than this stuff? Really? Do you just not value face to face interactions or what? It's hard to think of a bigger waste of time than posting here excessively. Whether you're perfect or a moron, the weather does what the weather does.

I'm actually getting pretty bored with all of this stuff. Going to delete all of my stuff in a few years once I retire permanently. I realized a few months that even though I'm already in the ~top 5% of wealth by American standards, I could really live like a king in Mexico - so I've been rummaging around that country looking for fun places to live and buy properties for much of the past year. Once I've finished my exploration of the 32 states in a few years, I'll pick five or six spots to buy buildings, and you all can go back to predicting severe cold/snow every winter without a peep from me.

Here’s a prediction for you…stay the hell out of Mexico if you know what’s good/safe for you.  And You can take that one to the bank.  

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The northeast has actually been one of the warmest regions relative to average in the entire country since the 2015 snow/cold blitz. So a little regression on that front wouldn’t be surprising. 

Really -

source? … not trying to challenge it’s just that the monthly publications from NOAA dating back seem to have a relative sink near by or inside much of the time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I mean...honest to god this is the stuff that aggravates me.  Everyone is wrong, but you claim to be right now matter how perfectly opposite you get things. That's the only thing that consistently pisses me off - the dishonesty of it all. You were dead sure even into May, even June of an El Nino this year weren't you? Even with all of the giant flashing lights showing the opposite? I had January warm last year - but I've never once claimed it was some kind of amazing call, I was dead wrong. It is interesting that no one chimed in to suggest you had original ideas though isn't it? I do genuinely think you're an idiot, but that's not the reason I get angry.

I do find it funny when people with 50,000-100,000 posts on a weather forum claim I'm the one who is socially inept. Most of you literally don't have anything better to do than this stuff? Really? Do you just not value face to face interactions or what? It's hard to think of a bigger waste of time than posting here excessively. Whether you're perfect or a moron, the weather does what the weather does.

I'm actually getting pretty bored with all of this stuff. Going to delete all of my stuff in a few years once I retire permanently. I realized a few months that even though I'm already in the ~top 5% of wealth by American standards, I could really live like a king in Mexico - so I've been rummaging around that country looking for fun places to live and buy properties for much of the past year. Once I've finished my exploration of the 32 states in a few years, I'll pick five or six spots to buy buildings, and you all can go back to predicting severe cold/snow every winter without a peep from me.

 The el nino thing was a wild first guess from back in March, dude...not a forecast. Look at the title of the thread....."Winter Conjecture". That is all that opening sentiment was.

 I check out from weather every spring, so it was literally a wild guess before detaching from weather. I am about as transparent as can be with respect to my results...anyone here would tell you that. Its unfortunate that someone as talented as you seems to have such egregious internal demons/strife ....really no need to call me an idiot and attack me like that. I hope whatever perceived shortcomings you have in life are ultimately sorted out, so you can stop using your passion for weather to overcompensate for all of your insecurities and cease to project that venom onto others. 

Good luck with that-

 

[ORH_wxman]

10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really -

source? … not trying to challenge it’s just that the monthly publications from NOAA dating back seem to have a relative sink near by or inside much of the time. 

Prior to 2015 maybe that was the case, but not since then....the eastern US has been a torch....only the far southeast US has been warmer than our region.

 

[ORH_wxman]

I would argue we weren't the center of the cold either in the 2007-2015 period.....we did have the record-breaking cold in Feb 2015, but the cold anomalies were largely centered to our west otherwise

 

[Great Snow 1717]

21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And during that entire 5 months span ... the world mean experiences 2 or 3 of those months as the warmest ever recorded, and the other 2 or 3 in 2nd or 3rd place, while we are enabled in our little denial bubble.

no doubt. 

Candidate for post of the winter even though it's not winter...

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 The el nino thing was a wild first guess from back in March, dude...not a forecast. Look at the title of the thread....."Winter Conjecture". That is all that opening sentiment was.

 I check out from weather every spring, so it was literally a wild guess before detaching from weather. I am about as transparent as can be with respect to my results...anyone here would tell you that. Its unfortunate that someone as talented as you seems to have such egregious internal demons/strife ....really no need to call me an idiot and attack me like that. I hope whatever perceived shortcomings you have in life are ultimately sorted out, so you can stop using your passion for weather to overcompensate for all of your insecurities and cease to project that venom onto others. 

Good luck with that-

 

At least he can stroke it to his bank account.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least he can stroke it to his bank account.

Not sure there is anything more insecure than going on a weather forum and chastising people and then bragging about your wealth.....you hate to see it. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure there is anything more insecure than going on a weather forum and chastising people and then bragging about your wealth.....you hate to see it. 

 

 

The irony is that he claimed that we spend so much time on a weather forum because we are socially inept and fear direct social contact, when the reality is that we spend so much time here because we have all met in person and developed friendships over the years as a result of our shared passion for the weather. Mutual interests are among the most powerful vehicles for social cohesion, which is a concept that is apparently every bit as foreign to him as a warm DM Albuquerque outlook.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would argue we weren't the center of the cold either in the 2007-2015 period.....we did have the record-breaking cold in Feb 2015, but the cold anomalies were largely centered to our west otherwise

 

With Maine standing out as the only neutral temps east of the Rockies.  At least it's not the ridiculous deep red of 09-10 when Maine stuck out like a hammered thumb (though that "winter" is a main reason for neutrality). 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would argue we weren't the center of the cold either in the 2007-2015 period.....we did have the record-breaking cold in Feb 2015, but the cold anomalies were largely centered to our west otherwise

 

We seem to be due for a flip soon. Likely not as cold vs prior periods due to continued effects of cc but much colder than we've been. 

Could this winter be the beginning of that. I hear 2000-01 being thrown around as an analog. Could be fitting since it marked the change from the mild/BN snow years of the mid-late 90s. 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We seem to be due for a flip soon. Likely not as cold vs prior periods due to continued effects of cc but much colder than we've been. 

Could this winter be the beginning of that. I hear 2000-01 being thrown around as an analog. Could be fitting since it marked the change from the mild/BN snow years of the mid-late 90s. 

Yeah those colder early 2000s winters (sans '01-'02) had the cold centered right over NY/New England. We haven't really seen that since on any sustained basis except maybe for that 8-10 week period in 2015.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

You could maybe throw in December 2017 into early January 2018 for another semi-sustained period where the cold was centered over us. But yeah, it's been pretty tough on a longer timeline since those early 2000s winters.....most of the cold has been centered over the plain states and into upper Rockies.....theyve had colder winters in the past 10-15 years there than they did in the 1990-2005 period.