Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

Not a bad thing to have a consolidated PV to start....we want that source region very chilled. The key is to eventually perturb it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/9/2022 at 9:27 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that one was very widespread too. Got into BOS and PVD. 
 

Tolland prob came close in Nov 2002 as well but the real high-end stuff was more in NW CT. I think Tolland prob had more like a third to a half inch of accretion in that one. There was another in early January 2005 that dropped similar amounts to the 2002 event in N CT at elevation…we actually had mostly/all snow in ORH in that one with like 8-10”. 

I remember that one....I was recovering from my drunken escapades the night before...drove home to Wilmington from the hotel near KBOS, crashed again and woke up to an inch or two of slush transitioning to rain...kicked off a great winter.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a bad thing to have a consolidated PV to start....we want that source region very chilled. The key is to eventually perturb it.

Yea. We don’t want to perturb it too soon. Otherwise it’s LBTE which no one, especially our spouses, wants. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/9/2022 at 5:59 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Sticking with 83 here . Think 2000-2001 is a strong contendah for best analog year

No one is rooting for a 2000-2001 redux more than I am lol. Its a fair analog....main issues are QBO and la nina maybe a touch stronger, buts its not bad.....its actually very good match to location of the anomalies within ENSO, like 2010 was last season.

The French seasonal guidance for winter that I posted, which was a pants tent, was a spitting image of 2000-2001 with respect to la nina.

1975 is the best analog in terms of QBO, but la nina def. won't be that strong...still has some value, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

N Foster, RI seems to be about identical with Wilmington, MA snowfall, climo wise...just an anecdotal observation....

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mostly confined to Litchfield county...so I don't think it can be considered in the same league as a storm like 1921. It was pretty devastating where it stayed ice though....just not a huge area like some other storms.

That limited effect seems similar to Jan. 1953 (trivia: 45 years to the day before the 1998 event), which affected mainly the hills N & W from NYC.  Our home was about 30 miles west of the Big Apple at 700' elev and we lost power for 6 days though the ice fell off on day 3.  Every large tree lost branches, and some snapped off below the branches, leaving a stub.  The town to our north was lower in elev, about 450' where we shopped next to the Pequannock River, and they had mainly cold RA.  The taller hills, ~850'+, had numerous "asparagus trees", naked stems with all branches piled about the base.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That limited effect seems similar to Jan. 1953 (trivia: 45 years to the day before the 1998 event), which affected mainly the hills N & W from NYC.  Our home was about 30 miles west of the Big Apple at 700' elev and we lost power for 6 days though the ice fell off on day 3.  Every large tree lost branches, and some snapped off below the branches, leaving a stub.  The town to our north was lower in elev, about 450' where we shopped next to the Pequannock River, and they had mainly cold RA.  The taller hills, ~850'+, had numerous "asparagus trees", naked stems with all branches piled about the base.

Widespread damaging ice storms are pretty rare whereas the localized ones are more common for obvious reasons.

An often-overlooked biggie was Dec 3-5, 1964....that was prob the benchmark for post-1950 ice storms in interior SNE until December 2008 happened. The December 1964 ice storm was particularly damaging across eastern NY State too. I think Albany had almost an inch of ice in that. But pretty much everyone from about I-495 up around Ray's area down to my area and out to E NY got absolutely crushed. The ice even got into BOS in the latter half of the system and produced significant accretion but it was nothing like it was over the interior.

 

One of the unique things about the December 2008 ice storm was that unlike most of the other monsters on the list, it was fairly short-lived. It happened mostly over a 12-18 hour period. Most places had only minor accretion during the day on 12/11....and then all hell broke loose overnight and it was done by 7-8am the next morning.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Widespread damaging ice storms are pretty rare whereas the localized ones are more common for obvious reasons.

An often-overlooked biggie was Dec 3-5, 1964....that was prob the benchmark for post-1950 ice storms in interior SNE until December 2008 happened. The December 1964 ice storm was particularly damaging across eastern NY State too. I think Albany had almost an inch of ice in that. But pretty much everyone from about I-495 up around Ray's area down to my area and out to E NY got absolutely crushed. The ice even got into BOS in the latter half of the system and produced significant accretion but it was nothing like it was over the interior.

 

One of the unique things about the December 2008 ice storm was that unlike most of the other monsters on the list, it was fairly short-lived. It happened mostly over a 12-18 hour period. Most places had only minor accretion during the day on 12/11....and then all hell broke loose overnight and it was done by 7-8am the next morning.

The biggies almost always happen in the early portion of winter. Even 98 was early Jan. The 73 storm is how we’d get it done pike south 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The biggies almost always happen in the early portion of winter. Even 98 was early Jan. The 73 storm is how we’d get it done pike south 

Yeah although there was a pretty good one in late Feb 1995 and early March 1991. But the really high-end ones seem to be earlier in the winter.

[sebastiaan1973]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it sucks here, too.....it goes wild with la nina....that's why that monster Aleutian ridge is so flat.

Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming - Lockwood - Atmospheric Science Letters - Wiley Online Library

In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link above. 

[Typhoon Tip]

You know it's funny about this ice storm discussion ..

I've often thought that the recent rather persistent speed surplus that's observable during these winter hemispheres, as being base-line favoring the icing phenomenon.  

Doesn't seem to be materializing that way.  Or we're playing with it and are 'due' in the sense that we've dodged bullets.  But, I also think that those longer duration ice storms ... the 1921 or 1998 ...or some of those in the TV last Century..  those are harder to set up because that velocity bias also tends to moving aspects along - it's harder to lock part of planetary wave space into an static overrunning scenario.  Give and take in that sense..  

I have seen an increase in those 8 hour icing events from fast moving flat waves - anecdotal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming - Lockwood - Atmospheric Science Letters - Wiley Online Library

In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link above. 

Yea, I'll take a look when I have more down time, but I know the UK is doing that again. UK, whether seasonal or mid range, seems to have this tendency to gravitate towards the extreme ends of the guidance spectrum, which is why we call it "crazy uncle"...

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll take a look when I have more down time, but I know the UK is doing that again. UK, whether seasonal or mid range, seems to have this tendency to gravitate towards the extreme ends of the guidance spectrum, which is why we call it "crazy uncle"...

It's been that way since 1994 as far back as I can recall, too -

I mean, it may be better - I dunno.. Don't use the guidance much.  It may boast good numbers or whatever, but it has this weird way of not doing so when one is using it for anything - or, apparently doing aMAzing when no one is looking ...

[tamarack]

23 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah although there was a pretty good one in late Feb 1995 and early March 1991. But the really high-end ones seem to be earlier in the winter.

The 2 severe/catastrophic ice storms I've experienced came on Jan 8-9, 1953 and 1998.  '98 was not only worse at my residence but must be a contender for the most widespread severe ice storm on record.  Both storms made iced twigs well over 1" diameter and I saw a 1st-year ash twig in 1998 that was 2.2" by 3.0".
Next 2 in line:
--Dec. 11-12, 1970 (NNJ) with twigs to about 0.8" and significant though not widespread tree damage and only brief power outage.
--Dec. 13-14, 1983 (Ft. Kent back settlement), comparable accretion to Dec. 1970 but with considerable IP and 20 hours without power.  It created a 3" crust that had 1.90" LE, with top and bottom layers of ice-welded IP 1.25" thick (looked a bit like Rice Krispies treats) surrounding 1/2" clear ice.  Once 6" of snow fell atop, the crust in the woods could carry a running bull moose.  Downtown Ft. Kent, 450' lower, had mainly RA.
--Probably next is the March 7, 2011 mess I described in an earlier post, with 1/2"+ twigs and 24 hours w/o power, the only time I've seen accretion greater than 1/4" later than January.

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll take a look when I have more down time, but I know the UK is doing that again. UK, whether seasonal or mid range, seems to have this tendency to gravitate towards the extreme ends of the guidance spectrum, which is why we call it "crazy uncle"...

I’m seeing some UK forecasters on twitter talking about how there is going to be a high probability of a SSW this year….not sure what they are looking at or where they are getting this from. If you look at it statistically, this upcoming winter is very unlikely to see a SSW (La Niña/high solar/+QBO). In order of most likely to least likely to see a SSWE, it would be: Niña/low solar/-QBO, Niña/high solar/-QBO, Niña/low solar/+QBO, Niña/high solar/+QBO

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m seeing some UK forecasters on twitter talking about how there is going to be a high probability of a SSW this year….not sure what they are looking at or where they are getting this from. If you look at it statistically, this upcoming winter is very unlikely to see a SSW (La Niña/high solar/+QBO). In order of most likely to least likely to see a SSWE, it would be: Niña/low solar/-QBO, Niña/high solar/-QBO, Niña/low solar/+QBO, Niña/high solar/+QBO

I generally agree, but it can be tough to predict SSW....I have a list of them on my laptop. I will take a look at the list when I get a chance and try to see how many occurred with a W QBO....I know there were some. I think early 2009 was one, off the top of my head...

Its ironic that there is a circle of UK forecasters promulgating that idea, since the UK seasonal guidance is the most hostile of all for east coast winter prospects

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I will add is that some forecasters get too carried away with the QBO....its just one factor, and a relatively poorly understood one at that. So, while I def. consider the QBO, I don't think its necessarily a deal breaker.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I generally agree, but it can be tough to predict SSW....I have a list of them on my laptop. I will take a look at the list when I get a chance and try to see how many occurred with a W QBO....I know there were some. I think early 2009 was one, off the top of my head...

Its ironic that there is a circle of UK forecasters promulgating that idea, since the UK seasonal guidance is the most hostile of all for east coast winter prospects

Here's one list....but it only goes through 2013. Looks like there's plenty of events that happened in a westerly QBO phase. Easterly is favored for sure, but it's like a 60/40 split. This list was only "major" events which actually reverse the wind field.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/List-of-the-Major-SSW-Events-Recorded-Between-1958-and-2013-Peak-lunar-tidal-Peak-ZMZW_tbl1_324608809

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I generally agree, but it can be tough to predict SSW....I have a list of them on my laptop. I will take a look at the list when I get a chance and try to see how many occurred with a W QBO....I know there were some. I think early 2009 was one, off the top of my head...

Its ironic that there is a circle of UK forecasters promulgating that idea, since the UK seasonal guidance is the most hostile of all for east coast winter prospects

Was 2009 high solar? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's one list....but it only goes through 2013. Looks like there's plenty of events that happened in a westerly QBO phase. Easterly is favored for sure, but it's like a 60/40 split. This list was only "major" events which actually reverse the wind field.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/List-of-the-Major-SSW-Events-Recorded-Between-1958-and-2013-Peak-lunar-tidal-Peak-ZMZW_tbl1_324608809

 

 

That is the one I saved....sweet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Was 2009 high solar? 

I think it was fairly low, given 2009-2010 was a min, but I think Jan 2013 was pretty high solar.....QBO was flipping westerly. Decent analog, too....March 2000 had one, as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it was fairly low, given 2009-2010 was a min, but I think Jan 2013 was pretty high solar.....QBO was flipping westerly. Decent analog, too....March 2000 had one, as well.

Got ya. Yea, I was just looking at SSWEs during official La Niña years and what solar and QBO were doing

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Got ya. Yea, I was just looking at SSWEs during official La Niña years and what solar and QBO were doing

Look at Feb '89...roaring strong modiki la nina and sky high solar, yet we saw a PV split. You just never know...all we can do is play the odds.

[Typhoon Tip]

The thing about SSW's  ... not that anyone cares to know this, but my own observations have led me to downplay some of their significance.

( - per my own evaluation over the decades, now dating back to 2004 ..when I and anyone I'm leaving out first brought the phenomenon, along with the subsequent Arctic Oscillation forcing/correlations to the attention of Eastern)

Or perhaps - they were more significant in the previous global paradigm?  It just more in the way of informed conjecture so don't anyone that relies on them let it get your panties in a twist...

Firstly, the data is readily available at CDC.  There, and elsewhere by now, no doubt.   But one can go look back to 1979 at that site ( at least), and observe every year since. One can see the thermal, wind flux in the U/V components, along with the wave functions that occurred during all winters.  

Now ...those that know how to identify SSWs:    A, warm intrusion       B, subsequent downward propagation of warm anomaly, and associated wind reversal  ... will know that this "B" is perhaps the most important aspect in total manifold of SSW - those that actually correlate with the AO. 

Too many people see a warm flash up in the 10 mb level and set off these Tweet electrical storms and fluff their celebrity for the day .... wrong.   Man.. it's mind-boggling that this propagation mechanical necessity can't seem to penetrate skulls ...

C ...lastly, the correlation to the AO is lagged by as many as three weeks.   Another key numeric/objectively demonstrated aspect that tends to not be included in the Tweeter's turn of phrasing.... 

Where was I going ... oh yeah, some observed aspects over the years:   the SSWs that met the total 'checklist' above, correlated very well to -AO.  One can identify the SSW, then ...go look at historic monthly AO (tabular or graphic -) and see the subsequent dip that took place.   However, the din of the winter on whole, ...sort of hide the SSW/-AO consequences.   I've seen -AO responses to SSWs take place in both predominating +AOs, and already saturated -AO winters.    IF we are 'enjoying' the latter winter anyway, you almost don't see the temperature correlation even manifest at mid latitudes, because it's engulfed in an already cooler year.  If the -AO happens during a +AO winter... yes, you'll see the -AO response more vividly due to deltas, ...but there is no clear way ( as far as I can see) to know if the -AO means cold more for Eurasia ... Europe,  the western hemisphere.  

In fact, 2006-2007 demonstrated this sort of uncertainty.  There was no SSW that year, yet the -AO crashed in late January anyway ... So what's the difference?  It got cold and stormy at mid latitudes ... If an SSW preceded all that, ... it was going to do it either way.  

My recent sense of the SSW --> AO stuff is that it is just another factor that may help.  If your in a miserable +AO winter... it may 'help' reverse fortune.  There are enough SSW- AO winters in there that were more ghostly as an influence, though.     

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh, they are hit or miss in terms of parlaying into a winter onslaught for a given area, agreed...the location and precisely how they manifest is crucial and the devil is in the details, but the question was just related to occurrence. And as illustrated by the Feb '89 example, many of them don't do very much for winter enthusiasts. I think there was another one in early 2020 that was pretty useless, too....they sometimes just act to stagnate and subsequently enhance whatever MJO state you are in at the time of occurrence, and if it sucks, then you're done. This happened in that miserable 2020 season.

[George001]

yeah I’m just rooting for a weak PV and good pacific, no need for an SSW or anything crazy to get a good winter here. If anything SSWs can hurt sometimes if the polar vortex goes to the wrong side of the globe. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, they are hit or miss in terms of parlaying into a winter onslaught for a given area, agreed...the location and precisely how they manifest is crucial and the devil is in the details, but the question was just related to occurrence. And as illustrated by the Feb '89 example, many of them don't do very much for winter enthusiasts.

Right and we're still surfing the wave of over -application excitement that started pipe-curling back in the aughts... eventually it'll rumble to white noise and fade away into the table of just another in a plethora of available environmental factors.

And then some other astrological awe of wonder will emerge and become the lever that propels someone's career and standing ..and then that'll get over applied...etc etc

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right and we're still surfing the wave of over -application excitement that started pipe-curling back in the aughts... eventually it'll rumble to white noise and fade away into the table of available environmental factors.

And then some other astrological awe of wonder will emerge and become the lever that propels someone's career and standing ..and then that'll get over applied...etc etc

Yes, same thing with SAI...people initially over react and treat it as the holy grail, and then once we realize that it doesn't operate in a vacuum like everything else, we summarily disregard it. The over reliance on technology has rendered us so impulsive that we are essentially human versions of the UKMET....incapable of objective assessment that is unfettered by emotion so that we sway from one extreme to the other when casting judgement.

[ORH_wxman]

JMA wants to slam the big -NAO in December....we've seen this from a few seasonals. I'm skeptical of seasonal models but if there's a theme that starts emerging, I want to see if it actually verifies.