40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 I don't think December will be as cold as the French guidance would imply, but I like the JMA idea of a some neg NAO with marginal cold. Coast could have issues early on....could be like a December 1996 transitioning to a January 2003 look before the fun period gets more widespread...with ultimately a relaxation later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: French Kiss: I’m all in. Big Greenland block, weak La Niña and a ridge out west. If this develops December and January could end up both being great months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 Just now, George001 said: I’m all in. Big Greenland block, weak La Niña and a ridge out west. If this develops December and January could end up both being great months. I'm sure you are, but the question is, will mother nature be? lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 Then, there is the UK.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: French Kiss: The French guidance is basically 2000-2001 with respect to ENSO, which is maybe why it does that? Very weak modiki la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Then, there is the UK.... UK is too strong with la nina....tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The French guidance is basically 2000-2001 with respect to ENSO, which is maybe why it does that? Very weak modiki la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: UK is too strong with la nina....tossed. Holy shit that Nina looks stronger than 2010-2011. Yeah the other guidance disagrees with that and there are already signs that the Nina is starting to peak with the subsurface warming up. It’s weird that it has a ridge in the west and east though, I would think there would be a trough out west if there is a ridge in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, George001 said: Holy shit that Nina looks stronger than 2010-2011. Yeah the other guidance disagrees with that and there are already signs that the Nina is starting to peak with the subsurface warming up. It’s weird that it has a ridge in the west and east though, I would think there would be a trough out west if there is a ridge in the east. What it is trying to convey is the presence of a strong PAC jet because you have lower heights up by AK, owed to a very falt Aleutian ridge that is probably a function of a very intense la nina. Not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 CFS looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 On 9/6/2022 at 9:55 AM, binbisso said: Hmm I wonder why snowman19 didn't post the cansip? 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: French Kiss: Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hmmm... What model ensemble is that? That NAO looks pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What model ensemble is that? That NAO looks pretty ridiculous. KFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What model ensemble is that? That NAO looks pretty ridiculous. @ Giacomo Masato on Twitter.. he's a met from Britain. It's his in house model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @ Giacomo Masato on Twitter.. he's a met from Britain. It's his in house model. Sounds like he’s a MET from Italy actually . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Sounds like he’s a MET from Italy actually . I know, but if you read the bio, it says Britain. He probably relocated for work, which is something most Mets need to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know, but if you read the bio, it says Britain. He probably relocated for work, which is something most Mets need to do. Oh I’m sure…was just being funny that’s all with his big time Italian sounding name. Hope he’s on to something. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That December pattern really reminds me of the Cantore "Thundersnow" month of December 1996, which makes sense to me....I don't think it will be a frigid month, but do buy some NAO blocking with an active look. I think the PNA will be more positive, which is a big difference from December 1996....it will just take a while to build up the cold reservoir in Canada. I think the cold comes after the holidays. 22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early guess at December: I wonder why these images self-destructed? I hate that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Then, there is the UK.... it's the forecast from August. The next one is coming in a couple of days. I guess around 12/13 of september. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Yeah that was an ugly Ukie run...+EPO/NAO pattern....woof. Prob something like '98-99 or '99-'00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was an ugly Ukie run...+EPO/NAO pattern....woof. Prob something like '98-99 or '99-'00. Yea, more of a risk of la nina were stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 @ORH_wxman@CoastalWx What are your thoughts on the idea that SH strat cooling could be linked to NH strat warming? https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ There isn't any peer reviewed material backing it, but it makes sense to me due to the element of balance at play.....we see this all of the time in the tropics.....IE areas of lift at the surface meaning descent above, as well as down stream in longitude and latitude. This would fit right in with the proclivity for earth to inexorably strive for that elusive balance that it will never achieve. I think it could act to accentuate early season la nina climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @ORH_wxman@CoastalWx What are your thoughts on the idea that SH strat cooling could be linked to NH strat warming? https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ There isn't any peer reviewed material backing it, but it makes sense to me due to the element of balance at play.....we see this all of the time in the tropics.....IE areas of lift at the surface meaning descent above, as well as down stream in longitude and latitude. This would fit right in with the proclivity for earth to inexorably strive for that elusive balance that it will never achieve. I think it could act to accentuate early season la nina climo. This also has support from a lot of the seasonals, as well as analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This also has support from a lot of the seasonals, as well as analogs. Can you run a correlation? You might be able to in ESRL or whatever it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Can you run a correlation? You might be able to in ESRL or whatever it is now. It's going to be hard to run a correlation on temps alone that mean much.....mostly because the Antarctic SPV was affected by the ozone hole for so long which cooled the stratosphere down there. So you are prob going to get an inverse correlation for the rest of the globe.....which can be explained by that. If we could somehow remove that influence, it would be helpful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: so it turns out that the anomalously cool stratospheric temperatures over the SH actually correlate to a west based -NAO kinda makes sense, I would think that there would be some kind of balancing out with the historically cold SH stratosphere obviously, this is a correlation and these years had other factors influencing the NAO... but this is interesting and it seems that, on average, a very cold SH strat would help a -NAO if anything, not hurt it 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the -NAO correlation from Nov-Jan with the cold stratosphere is even more interesting when you consider the propensity for early blocking in the analogs, as you're saying. this is a legit west-based -NAO signal and when looking at these years' SH strat temperature anomalies from August to September, there is a definite signal for an anomalously cold stratosphere. it's obviously not to the extreme extent as we're seeing this year, but it's certainly similar so, I see no reason to believe that December won't bring some decent winter chances before -ENSO climo takes over as we head into mid January - February 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It's going to be hard to run a correlation on temps alone that mean much.....mostly because the Antarctic SPV was affected by the ozone hole for so long which cooled the stratosphere down there. So you are prob going to get an inverse correlation for the rest of the globe.....which can be explained by that. If we could somehow remove that influence, it would be helpful. It seems as though there does exist a correlation of of some sort, but causation is another ball game. I don't think that is prohibitive from using it as a seasonal outlook tool because we see random correlations used quite frequently....raindance is always mentioning how if (insert random occurrence around the globe) happens, then it means a cold February in Albuquerque. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Could be a momentum budget correlation where cooler SH strato = warmer NH strato to achieve equilibrium as you said. It's a good article that definitely gets you thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It seems as though there does exist a correlation of of some sort, but causation is another ball game. I don't think that is prohibitive from using it as a seasonal outlook tool because we see random correlations used quite frequently....raindance is always mentioning how if (insert random occurrence around the globe) happens, then it means a cold February in Albuquerque. The last four Februaries have all been near-average to cold here. A lot of the correlations I use have r-squared values over 0.4, and they work when I hindcast in random years in the 1890s-1930s. I actually don't think I have any direct correlations for ABQ in February though. My ACE stuff works much better for mid-Dec to mid-Jan, not that you ever read or remember anything people tell you. I wish you'd come up with an original idea once in a while instead of just copying everyone you follow. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 2 hours ago, raindancewx said: The last four Februaries have all been near-average to cold here. A lot of the correlations I use have r-squared values over 0.4, and they work when I hindcast in random years in the 1890s-1930s. I actually don't think I have any direct correlations for ABQ in February though. My ACE stuff works much better for mid-Dec to mid-Jan, not that you ever read or remember anything people tell you. I wish you'd come up with an original idea once in a while instead of just copying everyone you follow. Well, that struck a nerve..it was just a joke. I understand that arrogant and condescending people like you never solicit feedback and exchange ideas with others (or at least won't admit to it), but the reality is that most people do...its a wonderful way to facilitate growth and advance the field. I don't know everything and yes, there are other people with great ideas, like yourself, that add value to my efforts. Always cited, of course. I don't steal anything or take credit for the work of others. Perhaps you should take a break from using others as a conduit for the incessant stroking of your ego and and actually open your mind; you'll be a better forecaster for it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Ahhh... It starts already!!! Each new Winter season/ discussion brings back the same ole friction/caddyness!! Lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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