Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[CoastalWx]

Some long range guys are thinking December could be favorable for once.

[512high]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some long range guys are thinking December could be favorable for once.

Scott that would be great! "But" what happens after that is what I'm interested in , I just hope we don't loose snowpack Jan & Feb

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Some long range guys are thinking December could be favorable for once.

Let’s go 1995 this year. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s go 1995 this year. 

With a hint of what’s to come in late Nov like 95?

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s go 1995 this year. 

2000-01 is a legit analog this year

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2000-01 is a legit analog this year

I’ll roll the dice with that.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll roll the dice with that.

for sure. my initial thought is that the flavor of this winter will be similar to last, but we should shift the cold / snowy period up a few weeks. like mid December to early Jan

also... the PDO looks much improved thus far. it can change for sure, but this is a good look initially with all the warm water off the WC

if this remains heading into November, it bolsters the case for a wintry Dec

[It's Always Sunny]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

for sure. my initial thought is that the flavor of this winter will be similar to last, but we should shift the cold / snowy period up a few weeks. like mid December to early Jan

also... the PDO looks much improved thus far. it can change for sure, but this is a good look initially with all the warm water off the WC

if this remains heading into November, it bolsters the case for a wintry Dec

I'm interested to see how the PDO index for August looks given what appears to be a warming trend there since July came in at -2.48. -PDO appears non-existent now. That nuked GoA could make for an eventful winter.

[ORH_wxman]

12 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I'm interested to see how the PDO index for August looks given what appears to be a warming trend there since July came in at -2.48. -PDO appears non-existent now. That nuked GoA could make for an eventful winter.

PDO will still be solidly negative but not as much as July....that's still really warm water south of the Aleutians while "less warm" water is closer to land in the GOA. To get the PDO into positive territory, we need the water to become warmer in the eastern GOA than it is south of the Aleutians.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/31/2022 at 5:44 AM, ORH_wxman said:

PDO will still be solidly negative but not as much as July....that's still really warm water south of the Aleutians while "less warm" water is closer to land in the GOA. To get the PDO into positive territory, we need the water to become warmer in the eastern GOA than it is south of the Aleutians.

 

And it would be a neat trick if it did that prior to mid winter seasonal SS stressing - if even then.

The Pacific warm pool, as it has come to be known in oceanographic and climate circles, is a recurring warm eddy that is become multi-seasonally coherent ... Which by convention of spanning years means it is surviving modulating longer-term teleconnection modes, regardless, too

Folks may not want to hear this, but attribution science from some sources have eliminated all other causes ..leaving just GW as the reason for its persisting.

Phys.org is a site that does a decent job in re-baking advancing studies into consumable material - they'll typically mention the publication where the original work can be found.  An example of a study, https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html

There are other references to it the warm pool.   In fact, I recall the very earliest global-scaled attempts at super computed environmental modeling, attempting the projected future after ..so on and so on amount of climate change from way back in the early 1990s.  Those primitive technologies ( by today's state of the tech/science) predicted that the NE Pacific would tend to ridge, send the N/A continent above 40 N into relative cooler offset region.   That magnitude of those characterization may not succeed as such.. but, two present day aspects hearken back to those earlier attempts - for me anyway..

The first being the Pacific warm pool phenomenon. It's sea, not air, but given that PDO is largely a resonance response over time with the mode of atmosphere SS stressing/distribution ...that perhaps argues that fractional increases in ridging in the Pac NW/ EPO domain space may have been more subtly a modulating influence - the ocean betrays that forcing.  

The other aspect is that despite N/A also warming along with the rest of the world, we are slightly cooler N of 40 N and E of Canadian Rockies.. One can kind of make that out here ( c/o NASA), ... where the N/A land region is lagging some behind the other N. Hemisphere over-land regions.

This is the 1884 --> 2021 aggregate temperature difference.

So the combination of the Pac warm pool and this above.. seems to give at least a nod back to the primitive climate model efforts from decades ago. 

And so... the Pac warm pool may be inexorably connected to climate change ...  I mean if it's anchored in that causality, one must wonder if the -PDO is a new base-line

[weathafella]

On 8/30/2022 at 2:25 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

So.. Farmers Alamanac Vs. Old Farmer Alamanac? Both garbage, or does the Old Farmers Almanac have a little more scientific backing to it? 

 

https://dailyvoice.com/new-york/whiteplains/weather/old-farmers-almanac-releases-outlook-for-winter-in-northeast/840209/

Probably worthless but since it’s predicting a cold snowy winter I am saying that I agree.

[StormchaserChuck!]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is the 1884 --> 2021 aggregate temperature difference.

hmm.. wind is the biggest variable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/30/2022 at 5:42 PM, CoastalWx said:

Some long range guys are thinking December could be favorable for once.

Been saying that all summer.

[sebastiaan1973]

How Do Stratospheric Perturbations Influence North American Weather Regime Predictions? in: Journal of Climate Volume 35 Issue 18 (2022) (ametsoc.org)

The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The Euro looks to me like an Aleutian ridge consistent with a basin wide la nina...certainly not as poleward as last season, but not completely flat like some of the horrid cool ENSO seasons, either.

This pattern implies to me that while there is really no mechanism to drive the cold s & e, which will create precip type issues (especially south and near the coast) early on in the season, the periods of NAO should create some favorable tracks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Euro looks to me like an Aleutian ridge consistent with a basin wide la nina...certainly not as poleward as last season, but not completely flat like some of the horrid cool ENSO seasons, either.

This pattern implies to me that while there is really no huge mechanism to drive the cold s & e, which will create precip type issues (especially south and near the coast) early on in the season, the periods of NAO should create some favorable tracks.

Basin wide composite....like the Euro image above, also medium height Aleutian ridge and not so hostile polar domain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

JMF looks like it trends more gradient, as the we lose the NAO, but the Aleutian ridge also gets gets a bit more favorable.

That to me implies the opposite issue from December, but perhaps kind of the same result. Ample cold source, but some messy tracks.

JFM looks colder than OND in terms of anomalies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forget snowfall amounts, but the progression of the EURO seasonal reminds me a bit of 2010-2011 (also basin wide, but more biased east) in the sense that it tries to have a favorable early season NAO hand off to a more favorable PAC look mid season, before maybe ending on a quiet note.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty classic basin-wide season, save for maybe a  colder mid season vs early.

[CoastalWx]

I don't hate that look.  SWFE city. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't hate that look.  SWFE city. 

Exactly. I know we said that last year, but I will take my chances on a avoiding another record RNA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@ORH_wxmanDJF looks as though the cold source would be locked and loaded. Looks to me like that would transition from very stormy (think nor'Easter) pattern in December with marginal cold(1996 like?) to more of a SWFE regime with plentiful cold mid season before ending with a whimper.

[ORH_wxman]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@ORH_wxmanDJF looks as though the cold source would be locked and loaded. Looks to me like that would transition from very stormy (think nor'Easter) pattern in December with marginal cold(1996 like?) to more of a SWFE regime with plentiful cold mid season before ending with a whimper.

Yes agreed....that would be frigid in Canada with that H5 pattern....and hopefully we'd get some better timing to allow for more SWFEs and keeping the cold locked into New England over the top. Hopefully we see that Aleutian ridge beef up a little more on future runs which would help push the cold a little further south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That December pattern really reminds me of the Cantore "Thundersnow" month of December 1996, which makes sense to me....I don't think it will be a frigid month, but do buy some NAO blocking with an active look. I think the PNA will be more positive, which is a big difference from December 1996....it will just take a while to build up the cold reservoir in Canada.

 

I think the cold comes after the holidays.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Early guess at December:

[40/70 Benchmark]

French Kiss:

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

French Kiss:

That’s a dam nice look…at least in my limited knowledge opinion.  I’d take that and run.  

[CoastalWx]

I'd French kiss slobber on that look.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a dam nice look…at least in my limited knowledge opinion.  I’d take that and run.  

My theory all along has been for a blocky first half, or at least first third, and I see this emerging as a theme among guidance. The French suite is particularly weenie, but they all have at least some NAO east, to a degree, early on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd French kiss slobber on that look.

This is what I mean about the 2010-2011 element....the guidance tries to pass the baton from a good Atlantic early on to a better Pacific in January.