Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[George001]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just realized that we have endured 9 consecutive +NAO months of February....last negative NAO Feb was 2013. 

Jesus...hell of a way to run peak climo snow period...similar to the 1980s.

We had 8 consecutive from 1988-1995....obviously the hammer dropped in 1996.

March would have the same streak going, believe it or not, if were not for 2018....for all of the talk about negative NAO waiting for March.

The crazy thing is the snowiest month in history in eastern mass was a raging +NAO, yet we still got buried with the pacific cooperating well (weak west based El Niño in action). I’m hoping the dynamical guidance is onto something about the rapid decay of the Nina if we get a positive NAO again. I know you mentioned how the active sun and quiet tropics this year favors a positive NAO this winter. If the NAO is positive a weaker Nina or even enso neutral instead of moderate would be better for us. It seems like with ninas (especially stronger ones) we are more reliant on NAO help than ninos. We haven’t had a big December in a while so I’m hoping some of those analogs you mentioned pan out (average ish winter with a big December). We haven’t had a big December in a while, so it would be cool to have a big December nor’easter this year. Looks like while we aren’t looking at anything near 2014-2015, we aren’t looking at a 2011-2012 type winter either. Maybe something similar to last year but a bit more in December, less in Jan?

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just realized that we have endured 9 consecutive +NAO months of February....last negative NAO Feb was 2013. 

Jesus...hell of a way to run peak climo snow period...similar to the 1980s.

We had 8 consecutive from 1988-1995....obviously the hammer dropped in 1996.

March would have the same streak going, believe it or not, if were not for 2018....for all of the talk about negative NAO waiting for March.

January 2021 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of January...2011 had been the last one.

December 2020 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of December dating back to December 2010.

Unless this is connected to climate change in some way, you have to figure that the other shoe is about to drop.

More evidence that NAO isn't well coordinated for snow this far north?  Those 9 Februarys averaged 24.9" here, 2.0" AN.  The December streak averaged 0.8" AN while January's run was 1.0" BN.  Of course, there's evidence it does matter: March 2018 had more than twice its average snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

The crazy thing is the snowiest month in history in eastern mass was a raging +NAO, yet we still got buried with the pacific cooperating well (weak west based El Niño in action). I’m hoping the dynamical guidance is onto something about the rapid decay of the Nina if we get a positive NAO again. I know you mentioned how the active sun and quiet tropics this year favors a positive NAO this winter. If the NAO is positive a weaker Nina or even enso neutral instead of moderate would be better for us. It seems like with ninas (especially stronger ones) we are more reliant on NAO help than ninos. We haven’t had a big December in a while so I’m hoping some of those analogs you mentioned pan out (average ish winter with a big December). We haven’t had a big December in a while, so it would be cool to have a big December nor’easter this year. Looks like while we aren’t looking at anything near 2014-2015, we aren’t looking at a 2011-2012 type winter either. Maybe something similar to last year but a bit more in December, less in Jan?

Yes.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just realized that we have endured 9 consecutive +NAO months of February....last negative NAO Feb was 2013. 

Jesus...hell of a way to run peak climo snow period...similar to the 1980s.

We had 8 consecutive from 1988-1995....obviously the hammer dropped in 1996.

March would have the same streak going, believe it or not, if were not for 2018....for all of the talk about negative NAO waiting for March.

January 2021 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of January...2011 had been the last one.

December 2020 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of December dating back to December 2010.

Unless this is connected to climate change in some way, you have to figure that the other shoe is about to drop.

Wait Feb 2021 wasn't a -NAO?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait Feb 2021 wasn't a -NAO?

Marginally + according to CPC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, tamarack said:

More evidence that NAO isn't well coordinated for snow this far north?  Those 9 Februarys averaged 24.9" here, 2.0" AN.  The December streak averaged 0.8" AN while January's run was 1.0" BN.  Of course, there's evidence it does matter: March 2018 had more than twice its average snowfall.

At ORH, those 9 Februarys averaged 24.0" with a median of 20.6".....longterm average for February at ORH is 17.1".....so it was prolific down this way as well.

January has really been the more recent turd in the punchbowl for around here with 5 out of the last 7 below normal snowfall in ORH...and the two that were not below normal had massive cutters that ruined the overall feel of the month.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Marginally + according to CPC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

An example where the CPC metric seems a bit fraudulent. I do remember that Davis Strait block too which helped out in the Feb 1-2, 2021 firehose storm.

 

 

 

 

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At ORH, those 9 Februarys averaged 24.0" with a median of 20.6".....longterm average for February at ORH is 17.1".....so it was prolific down this way as well.

January has really been the more recent turd in the punchbowl for around here with 5 out of the last 7 below normal snowfall in ORH...and the two that were not below normal had massive cutters that ruined the overall feel of the month.

Decembers were no prize, but not as much of a let down than Jan.  which should be a core snow month.  Last December …damn.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The crazy thing is the snowiest month in history in eastern mass was a raging +NAO, yet we still got buried with the pacific cooperating well (weak west based El Niño in action). I’m hoping the dynamical guidance is onto something about the rapid decay of the Nina if we get a positive NAO again. I know you mentioned how the active sun and quiet tropics this year favors a positive NAO this winter. If the NAO is positive a weaker Nina or even enso neutral instead of moderate would be better for us. It seems like with ninas (especially stronger ones) we are more reliant on NAO help than ninos. We haven’t had a big December in a while so I’m hoping some of those analogs you mentioned pan out (average ish winter with a big December). We haven’t had a big December in a while, so it would be cool to have a big December nor’easter this year. Looks like while we aren’t looking at anything near 2014-2015, we aren’t looking at a 2011-2012 type winter either. Maybe something similar to last year but a bit more in December, less in Jan?

Lets hope not because the winter of 21-22 was a grade F- winter

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At ORH, those 9 Februarys averaged 24.0" with a median of 20.6".....longterm average for February at ORH is 17.1".....so it was prolific down this way as well.

January has really been the more recent turd in the punchbowl for around here with 5 out of the last 7 below normal snowfall in ORH...and the two that were not below normal had massive cutters that ruined the overall feel of the month.

Here the stink is December and March during the past 4 winters.  All 8 months were BN with their total a bit under 60% of average.  Jan-Feb those winters were very slightly AN.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Lets hope not because the winter of 21-22 was a grade F- winter

That was flukey bad luck, though...nothing about last season synoptically screamed "Post a cheesy meme of us plunging into the Merrimack".

[cleetussnow]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was flukey bad luck, though...nothing about last season synoptically screamed "Post a cheesy meme of us plunging into the Merrimack".

Yes, I don't track every event and especially every/any non-event, but I recall there being a lot of potential in January that just didn't produce anything.  We had cold around.  There seemed to be something around every corner, and those somethings stayed around the corner the whole month.  Bad bad luck.

[Great Snow 1717]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was flukey bad luck, though...nothing about last season synoptically screamed "Post a cheesy meme of us plunging into the Merrimack".

I do not think of it as being a victim of bad luck.

[George001]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Lets hope not because the winter of 21-22 was a grade F- winter

Yeah it was bad for most areas. My area did decent (mostly due to the monster blizzard in late Jan, 20 inches here) but areas to the north and west didnt which is unusual for la ninas. It looked like a great pattern was coming in on the models, but then winter just kinda died after that. A lot depends on what the polar vortex does, last year it deepened to record strength so even just an average polar vortex would be an improvement.

[CoastalWx]

December last year was putrid. Definitely synoptic garbage. Jan and Feb had some crap luck out by ORH and to the NE by NE MA and points north. It was not a bad look overall.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

December last year was putrid. Definitely synoptic garbage. Jan and Feb had some crap luck out by ORH and to the NE by NE MA and points north. It was not a bad look overall.  

Exactly.

December was awful, but January into February was bad luck for my area.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Yes, I don't track every event and especially every/any non-event, but I recall there being a lot of potential in January that just didn't produce anything.  We had cold around.  There seemed to be something around every corner, and those somethings stayed around the corner the whole month.  Bad bad luck.

If the 1/17 storm doesn't take an absolutely ridiculous phased turn due north (or almost NNW), then January probably goes down as a big dog month. That was definitely unfortunate since about 90% of the analog patterns produced a KU type event for New England.

Assuming a good storm on 1/17, we would have had the 1/7 event, 1/17, and then the blizzard at the end of the month. Changes the whole tenure of the month (and probably winter)....as you;d have a month of deep snow cover with minimal thaw.

[ORH_wxman]

I didn't think December 2021 was that far off from being really good. The 2nd half of the month actually had a pattern similar to Dec 1970....but just a shade more -PNA and confluence up by us which ended up being all the difference.

You could see how this pattern would be good though. You have a SE ridge but also -NAO And 50/50 low for confluence to hold in the highs near CAR on SWFE.....in our case though, we just couldn't get any of those disturbances to maintain their integrity in the flow.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that's true. When it did get a bit more favorable, it was the shredder that ruined shortwaves. 

[cleetussnow]

I think my local temp departure was +6 for December, so I remember that and not much else.  

20 inches plus on the 1/17 event in western NY.  Most of us weren't even fringed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't think December 2021 was that far off from being really good. The 2nd half of the month actually had a pattern similar to Dec 1970....but just a shade more -PNA and confluence up by us which ended up being all the difference.

You could see how this pattern would be good though. You have a SE ridge but also -NAO And 50/50 low for confluence to hold in the highs near CAR on SWFE.....in our case though, we just couldn't get any of those disturbances to maintain their integrity in the flow.

 

 

Oh, I know...I just meant the sensible outcome.

[ORH_wxman]

19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that's true. When it did get a bit more favorable, it was the shredder that ruined shortwaves. 

First 10-12 days of the month were just a full-on blowtorch.....then we kind of got into that semi-colder pattern.....SE ridge was just a shade too robust and that was prob a direct result of the PNA being so deep out west. 1970 had a more favorable NAO to keep it cold too. Displaced like 500+ miles south of where 2021 was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

First 10-12 days of the month were just a full-on blowtorch.....then we kind of got into that semi-colder pattern.....SE ridge was just a shade too robust and that was prob a direct result of the PNA being so deep out west. 1970 had a more favorable NAO to keep it cold too. Displaced like 500+ miles south of where 2021 was.

I remember I was expecting something like 12/1970 for December heading into last winter, but the RNA porked me...it was too extreme.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@ORH_wxman @CoastalWxIs it me, or do some of these long range seasonal models look more el ninoish than la nina?

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@ORH_wxman @CoastalWxIs it me, or do some of these long range seasonal models look more el ninoish than la nina?

I've only seen the Euro seasonal....got any others to post?

 

Euro seasonal didn't look too El Nino-ish since it had the big Aleutian ridge....though it was kind of weird in that had it also had higher heights on the west coast. But Aleutian ridge + SE ridge looked Nina-ish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've only seen the Euro seasonal....got any others to post?

 

Euro seasonal didn't look too El Nino-ish since it had the big Aleutian ridge....though it was kind of weird in that had it also had higher heights on the west coast. But Aleutian ridge + SE ridge looked Nina-ish.

Well, the NDJ period almost has it on the west coast, but other than that, the EURO really doesn't...but the JMA almost looks like it has an Aleutian low, and the UK has all lower heights to the south, and higher heights to the north, but maybe that is just a flat Aleutian ridge and that fades into higher SE heights.

This graphics on Copernicus aren't the greatest, either.

[brooklynwx99]

On 8/24/2022 at 1:52 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't think December 2021 was that far off from being really good. The 2nd half of the month actually had a pattern similar to Dec 1970....but just a shade more -PNA and confluence up by us which ended up being all the difference.

You could see how this pattern would be good though. You have a SE ridge but also -NAO And 50/50 low for confluence to hold in the highs near CAR on SWFE.....in our case though, we just couldn't get any of those disturbances to maintain their integrity in the flow.

 

 

December was a real shame... that was a massive, perfectly placed cutoff UL high over Greenland and the Davis Strait. classic west-based -NAO. if we just had a "normal" -PNA, it's likely a big dog month thanks to redevelopers and SWFEs, especially up by you guys

even when LR forecasting, it had the look of a big month, but the record breaking Aleutian ridge did it in

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

December was a real shame... that was a massive, perfectly placed cutoff UL high over Greenland and the Davis Strait. classic west-based -NAO. if we just had a "normal" -PNA, it's likely a big dog month thanks to redevelopers and SWFEs, especially up by you guys

even when LR forecasting, it had the look of a big month, but the record breaking Aleutian ridge did it in

NAO block prob could have been a little further south ala 1970, but yeah, it would have been just fine if we didn't have that ridiculous trough on the west coast. But oh well....can't win 'em all. We've had a lot of good fortune in the past 20+ years so we have been paying that back a little in the form of getting punished on a lot of nuances in the pattern in the most recent 3-4 winters.

We're prob due for some legit cold outbreaks too....they've all been centered way to our west recently. Scott and I were discussing earlier in this thread how it's been pretty cold in the plains and Canada in recent winters but not in the northeast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAO block prob could have been a little further south ala 1970, but yeah, it would have been just fine if we didn't have that ridiculous trough on the west coast. But oh well....can't win 'em all. We've had a lot of good fortune in the past 20+ years so we have been paying that back a little in the form of getting punished on a lot of nuances in the pattern in the most recent 3-4 winters.

We're prob due for some legit cold outbreaks too....they've all been centered way to our west recently. Scott and I were discussing earlier in this thread how it's been pretty cold in the plains and Canada in recent winters but not in the northeast.

Yea, the whole "fear regression" argument is done on a regional level...a few narrow swaths have avoided it, but not the majority of us.

[cleetussnow]

Where did we land on the impact of warm SSTs up here for impact on snowfall for coastals? Factor? Non factor? Unknown?  This condition stands out this year big time.