Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark 

 

 

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar '03 was below average here in snow....though not sure down where you are. You might have been closer to normal with the 3/6/03 event doing better south.

More a wire to wire post for 02 03

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

More a wire to wire post for 02 03

‘02-03 was pretty awesome from a length standpoint. We started in October that year (3 inches at ORH on 10/23/02) and then had 3 November events (snow to sleet to ice on 11/16-17), 6-10” on 11/27 day before Tday, and then 1-2” a couple days later with the warm front lifting back north…

Then of course Dec/Jan/Feb were great (a little less so along coast Dec/Jan), and then we even had that frigid week in April 2003 that produce a couple snow events. 
 

And it was a really cold winter as well. Underrated for cold. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark 

 

Yea, sucks....that's giving me pause with respect to my sensible weather analogs....they were doing great until now. 

[raindancewx]

The actual analogs Larry Cosgrove uses are pretty warm honestly.

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/ZM4CTyKXDSE

1992-93, 2012-13 (x2), 2013-14 (x2), 2016-17, 2021-22 "synoptic analogs" (I do like March 1993 in there, as there should be some very powerful systems this March, but not a fan of 1992-93 otherwise). The issue with years like 1992, 2000, 1985, etc that people throw around is you had widespread, month long near to record US cold in many places that just is not going to be verified at all this year.

1950-51, 1955-56, 1956-57, 1971-72, 1975-76, 1985-86, 1999-00, 2011-12, 2021-22 for ENSO

I used 2011, 2012, 2016, 2021 at various weights - so I agree with some of these years. I thought 2013 was a pretty good analog for the Fall in the Summer, that was how I came up with the "wet Oct-Dec" period for the West back in June, but I don't like it for winter. I saw Paul Pastelok the Bastardi long-range replacement at Accuweather say in an interview the other day he thought 2011-12 & 2013-14 as a blend was a decent guess for the winter.  Not particularly blend-able years though, outside both being cold where I am in Dec - given the very different Feb/Mar outcomes as an example.

These are the Cosgrove years at the link - at his weights:

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, sucks....that's giving me pause with respect to my sensible weather analogs....they were doing great until now. 

It's only Nov 3rd

[Supernovice]

This is pretty interesting… also with respect to analogs.

Edit: 1975 anyone? What’d that winter do?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's only Nov 3rd

Doesn't matter...I begin matching them in June. They had been matching well,  but november may screw it up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Supernovice said:

This is pretty interesting… any 1970’s winters showing up in the analogs?

 

I have a couple...1975-1976 was a slightly toned down 2007-2008...sharp gradient. 1973-1974 was like that, too. Unfavorable per teleconnections, but Canada was so cold that the north did well.

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't matter...I begin matching them in June. They had been matching well,  but november may screw it up.

In reference to that tweet

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, sucks....that's giving me pause with respect to my sensible weather analogs....they were doing great until now. 

I know you don’t put much stock into models and neither do I, but the new Euro seasonal is really ugly for Jan and Feb, the real “winter” month may be December like you have been suggesting (i.e. 2000/20001): 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know you don’t put much stock into models and neither do I, but the new Euro seasonal is really ugly for Jan and Feb, the real “winter” month may be December like you have been suggesting (i.e. 2000/20001): 

 

Thats ugly for the mid atl, not most of NE. 

March was the best month on 2000-2001.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

In reference to that tweet

Oh, you mean the month is still young....true. But a couple of weeks ago, guidance matched my composite. It's not a good sign when the trend during the lead in is opposite of the desired direction. The month just kept correcting warmer. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, you mean the month is still young....true. But a couple of weeks ago, guidance matched my composite. It's not a good sign when the trend during the leas up is opposite of the desired direction. The month just kept correcting warmer. 

Did you originally have November really cold? It looks pretty damned cold across the CONUS 2nd half of the month (N plains and Rockies almost the whole month). Might just have to back your timing up. 

Things could always change of course. Maybe model guidance is too bullish on cold later this month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Did you originally have November really cold? It looks pretty damned cold across the CONUS 2nd half of the month (N plains and Rockies almost the whole month). Might just have to back your timing up. 

Things could always change of course. Maybe model guidance is too bullish on cold later this month. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh yeah, you have the heat exactly where it will be coldest this month.
 

I can see why you are not liking those analogs now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah, you have the heat exactly where it will be coldest this month.
 

I can see why you are not liking those analogs now. 

This is what the CFS looked like on 10/17

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not sure what I am going to do yet....if December doesn't look bad, I may just tweak it.

[ORH_wxman]

Nice job CFS. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure what I am going to do yet....if December doesn't look bad, I may just tweak it.

Would you jump

ship ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would you jump

ship ?

Not on the entire forecast....that sensible weather composite is just one new tool I have tried this year. Everything else looks good.

[Typhoon Tip]

No one will remember ( or care ) about the CFS's ( Complete F'n Shitshow) when it turns around in a week has a -3 sigma N/A continent -

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No one will remember ( or care ) about the CFS's ( Complete F'n Shitshow) when it turns around in a week has a -3 sigma N/A continent -

Agreed.  It does seem to be a volatile model.  It fluctuates from week to week, and I also noticed the changes recently.  There must be some sort of value to the model, but it may take some nuance to get the best forecasting value out of it.  I know I haven't figured it out yet...

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I know you don’t put much stock into models and neither do I, but the new Euro seasonal is really ugly for Jan and Feb, the real “winter” month may be December like you have been suggesting (i.e. 2000/20001): 

 

This is bad analysis, the H5 does not look ugly. The NAO is neutral and there is some poleward Alaskan ridging with some SE ridging as well. If you look at the monthly NAO values, the only month that looks ugly is Feb with a raging positive NAO.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not on the entire forecast....that sensible weather composite is just one new tool I have tried this year. Everything else looks good.

So for many years I have tried, somewhat successfully to figure out the Hemispheric patterns through use of multi modeling analogs combining 7 models consisting of globals Ens and long lead probability charts, creating my own sensible weather ideas. I have completed Mid Nov through Christmas using those ideas rolling forward. Good chance we go BN for the last week of Nov right up to the New Year with mild days outnumbered 2 to 1. Storms and rumors of storms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So for many years I have tried, somewhat successfully to figure out the Hemispheric patterns through use of multi modeling analogs combining 7 models consisting of globals Ens and long lead probability charts, creating my own sensible weather ideas. I have completed Mid Nov through Christmas using those ideas rolling forward. Good chance we go BN for the last week of Nov right up to the New Year with mild days outnumbered 2 to 1. Storms and rumors of storms. 

That is the silver bullet of seasonal foreacsting....we all know that ENSO isn't the only game in town, but figuring out all of those other nuanced forces that drive the MJO and overall Rosby wave train. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

This is bad analysis, the H5 does not look ugly. The NAO is neutral and there is some poleward Alaskan ridging with some SE ridging as well. If you look at the monthly NAO values, the only month that looks ugly is Feb with a raging positive NAO.

It looks bad if you are south of New England. New England is always in the game for winter wx no matter what 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks bad if you are south of New England. New England is always in the game for winter wx no matter what 

No, there are patterns that are game over for everyone....at least SNE, anyway. That isn't one of then. You can tell Canada is cold. Take a look at a DM composite of 1973-1974, 1975-1976 and 2007-2008.

Good example of an atrocious pattern on paper that ends up serviceable for NE and even very good in NNE.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It looks bad if you are south of New England. New England is always in the game for winter wx no matter what 

Winter cancel

[Damage In Tolland]

We all worry right now . From NNE south 

[George001]

 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks bad if you are south of New England. New England is always in the game for winter wx no matter what 

Outside of Feb, it looks decent even in the northern mid atlantic, neutral or negative NAO with poleward alaskan ridging. For us in New England that h5 look for the winter as a whole would be the 2nd best we’ve seen since 2014-2015 (only 2017-2018 had a better h5).