Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 On 10/21/2022 at 12:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I personally feel like the PDO is overrated, anyway.....the PNA, which is what is really important, can be out of sync with it quite often. PNA and EPO are where its at IMHO. PDO is a longer term, multi-decadal signal, like the AMO....its not really as important from a forecasting standpoint. Expand Yep let's neggie EPO for 15 weeks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 12:53 PM, Ginx snewx said: Yep let's neggie EPO for 15 weeks Expand Pants tent 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 3:20 AM, stadiumwave said: What happened to him? He ok? Expand He lurks...just won't post or reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 He got picked up by a major forecasting/energy market firm and per his hiring he had to commit to an NDA. His thoughts and methods can't both be free, while defaulting to proprietary inclusion into the employing organization - so there's no sense in engaging in here. He made it out in other words... For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too - 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 6:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said: He got picked up by a major forecasting/energy market firm and per his hiring he had to commit to an NDA. His thoughts and methods can't both be free, while defaulting to proprietary inclusion in the employing organization - so there's no sense in engaging in here. He made it out in other words... For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too - Expand I don't understand the issue with just telling people that....he'd posted here for years and its seems odd to just disappear, yet still creep in the background. As far as making it out....I'm out and where I want to be family and career wise, so at least for me, jealousy isn't the motivation. Weather is a toy for me...albeit a time consuming one, and I am okay with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 I hope he did get hired because he is one of the most talented seasonal forecasters that I know of. Close between him, raindance and Cosgrove. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 6:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said: He made it out in other words... For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too - Expand I think we're gonna lose George next. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 September 1 - October 21 500mb Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 3:31 AM, stadiumwave said: September 1 - October 21 500mb Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match. Expand There are for temp and precip anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 5:07 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are for temp and precip anomalies. Expand For the Northern Hemisphere or regional? Regional temp & precip may be misleading. I like to look for similar pieces in the entire northern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 5:07 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are for temp and precip anomalies. Expand Mm Likely a coincidence, tho. Results don’t dictate cause - haha I mean not intending to dictate here lol No but two thunderstorms created by entirely different mechanisms produced the similar amt if rain ? Think of it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 3:31 AM, stadiumwave said: September 1 - October 21 500mb Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match. Expand I honestly struggle with believing what we’ve/are observing so far this autumn has much to do with ENSO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 11:58 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Mm Likely a coincidence, tho. Results don’t dictate cause - haha I mean not intending to dictate here lol No but two thunderstorms created by entirely different mechanisms produced the similar amt if rain ? Think of it that way. Expand I'm not sure there is ever going to be another scenario where will you will assuredly attribute ENSO as the primary causation lol, and that is the god's honest truth. That said, I agree this particular ENSO event is growing less relevant by the week....anyway, my cool ENSO concurrent analogs are just intended to capture what is and is going to happen, so I'm not too concerned about causation in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 11:34 AM, stadiumwave said: For the Northern Hemisphere or regional? Regional temp & precip may be misleading. I like to look for similar pieces in the entire northern hemisphere. Expand US. I think there there is value in both because concurrent sensible weather analogs can't capture the MJO cycle. A bunch of H5 plots are great, and the hemispheric pattern obviously shouldn't be neglected, but what is actually happening is kind of a big deal as well. within the context of seasonal forecasting. This is one change I have made this season...I feel like just viewing H5 charts can cause one to miss the forest through the trees when forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 12:00 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I honestly struggle with believing what we’ve/are observing so far this autumn has much to do with ENSO. Expand Yeah I'd agree. ENSO tends to be more influential in the cold season anyway for North America. First, ENSO nadir is usually late spring or early summer, and then you have the 2-3 month lag for sensible wx affects, and on top of that, the weaker gradients in warm season just don't respond to any tropical forcing that stronger gradients (cold season) do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 12:49 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd agree. ENSO tends to be more influential in the cold season anyway for North America. First, ENSO nadir is usually late spring or early summer, and then you have the 2-3 month lag for sensible wx affects, and on top of that, the weaker gradients in warm season just don't respond to any tropical forcing that stronger gradients (cold season) do. Expand That, and I also think that the current SSTs belie the fact that the atmosphere is beginning to part ways with what is a very stagnant cold ENSO event.....its almost akin to how winds transfer to the surface more readily in an intensifying tropical system, as opposed to weakening or even steady-state systems. The mechanisms that foster the development of ENSO are what also fuel the associated IOD response and couple with the atmosphere. In a season like this one, while we still have a well coupled event on paper, much of that is residual and more a reflection of what had been...kind of like SSTs being shaped by a previous H5 pattern. I think a lot of this la nina right now is merely an atmospheric imprint of the previous couple of years. At least this is how I perceived the research that I conducted on the relationship between ENSO and the IOD. This goes along with what John is saying, although I think his attribution is probably more geared towards CC than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 8:16 PM, stadiumwave said: Expand Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 9:56 PM, snowman19 said: Yes, there is mounting evidence that late November and December are cold, i.e. a true front-loaded canonical La Niña, typical with Maritime Continent forcing. However, Maritime Continent forcing works well until you get into the end of December and January/February with the wavelength change, then it’s torch city Expand I know you love being the big TERD in the punch bowl, but Let’s see what actually sets up, before we say torch city etc for January and February. Many times things take longer to establish themselves, and hang on longer than we all think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 10:29 PM, WinterWolf said: I know you love being the big TERD in the punch bowl, but Let’s see what actually sets up, before we say torch city etc for January and February. Many times things take longer to establish themselves, and hang on longer than we all think. Expand There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events, like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 10:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events, like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January. Expand Yes, it was February before winter ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 10:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events, like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January. Expand That’s exactly what I was thinking about(2010-2011), but I didn’t want to come out and say that, for fear of being called a wishcaster. I remember Bastardi back then forecasting a heavily front ended winter for ‘10-11, and said if we didn’t get the goods by the end of December, we were probably toast. He was humbled by what happened that winter, and admitted as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 11:31 PM, WinterWolf said: That’s exactly what I was thinking about(2010-2011), but I didn’t want to come out and say that, for fear of being called a wishcaster. I remember Bastardi back then forecasting a heavily front ended winter for ‘10-11, and said if we didn’t get the goods by the end of December, we were probably toast. He was humbled by what happened that winter, and admitted as much. Expand We got lucky in that there was an absolutely exquisite handoff from the neg NAO to the +PNA....it def. didn't have to end up that good, and probably wouldn't the majority of the time if we were to run it again. Point being, its a decent analog, but I don't expect 95". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 3:31 AM, stadiumwave said: September 1 - October 21 500mb Can't really find any La Nina years for the same period resembling a match. Expand It looks fairly similar to 2012 if I remember right. I vaguely remember thinking the Fall looked like a progression of 1988/2001/2012 but I haven't looked in a week or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 12:05 AM, raindancewx said: It looks fairly similar to 2012 if I remember right. I vaguely remember thinking the Fall looked like a progression of 1988/2001/2012 but I haven't looked in a week or so. Expand Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 10:29 PM, WinterWolf said: I know you love being the big TERD in the punch bowl, but Let’s see what actually sets up, before we say torch city etc for January and February. Many times things take longer to establish themselves, and hang on longer than we all think. Expand Actually for New England, you can get away with Maritime Continent forcing, I mean when isn’t New England not in the game for winter weather? Eastern IO forcing? Game over. But I would not want to live anywhere south of New England come January if the forcing is over the Maritime Continent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 12:36 AM, snowman19 said: Actually for New England, you can get away with Maritime Continent forcing, I mean when isn’t New England not in the game for winter weather? Eastern IO forcing? Game over. But I would not want to live anywhere south of New England come January if the forcing is over the Maritime Continent Expand Something tells me you'd love to live south of New England in that instance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 I was travelling through the middle of the country recently and asking people about the driest years on the Mississippi. That's kind of like a "memory" reservoir of recent US weather - snow, heat, rain, etc. A lot of the people told me that the lowest levels for river are years like 1988 - so I do think I'm on the right track with a decent winter out here. https://earthsky.org/earth/mississippi-river-hits-record-low-levels-2022/ I had a bunch of stuff like this in my forecast, but I trimmed it out, since we have virtually no one on here who cares about water trends in the middle of the US. Though the low level of the Mississippi this year is unprecedented in modern history, it’s normal, however, to see lower levels in the mighty river at this time of year, around areas such as Memphis. To be sure, during late summer and early fall, the waters can run low after hot and dry summers. Previously, the low-level record at Memphis was at -10.7 feet on July 10, 1988. Later, two other record lows happened on August 30, 2006, and September 19, 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 11:27 PM, stadiumwave said: Yes, it was February before winter ended. Expand The blocking started breaking down around mid-January and by the last week of the month, that winter was over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 1:33 AM, snowman19 said: The blocking started breaking down around mid-January and by the last week of the month, that winter was over Expand No, the PNA took over and we rocked into early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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