Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if this will be the first winter in history, in which 70 F was report at least once during all three months of Dec, Jan, and Feb.   

...then of course we can't touch 40 in March... but wouldn't that be hoot.

Could be….bring it along with a blizzard. I’ll take that all day long as a monster Archembault event Tip!!!  And Every f’n Year!  

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if this will be the first winter in history, in which 70 F was report at least once during all three months of Dec, Jan, and Feb.   

...then of course we can't touch 40 in March... but wouldn't that be hoot.

Aka the end of winter as we know it. Next comes the end of snow

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Aka the end of winter as we know it. Next comes the end of snow

Never gonna happen pal. NEVER. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if this will be the first winter in history, in which 70 F was report at least once during all three months of Dec, Jan, and Feb.   

...then of course we can't touch 40 in March... but wouldn't that be hoot.

Killer Hadley Cells everywhere...

[snowman19]

Thanks to AGW, the beloved October Siberian snowcover buildup index has become basically useless over the last 10 years: 

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Thanks to AGW, the beloved October Siberian snowcover buildup index has become basically useless over the last 10 years: 

 

All these theories work until they don’t. Remember all the high latitude blocking due to low sea ice theory? That didn’t work out too well either. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

All these theories work until they don’t. Remember all the high latitude blocking due to low sea ice theory? That didn’t work out too well either. 

I think the theory is part bologna anyways. I think the physics make sense, but rate of change is more important as we head into later October. Also his sample size may not have told the complete story. I don’t think CC has made a huge difference.

[OceanStWx]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the theory is part bologna anyways. I think the physics make sense, but rate of change is more important as we head into later October. Also his sample size may not have told the complete story. I don’t think CC has made a huge difference.

The real long range stuff isn't my forte, but just looking over that chart it seems like a pretty weak correlation anyway (especially if you ditch 1988 and 1976 outliers). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the theory is part bologna anyways. I think the physics make sense, but rate of change is more important as we head into later October. Also his sample size may not have told the complete story. I don’t think CC has made a huge difference.

It always was more about the rate of change....ie SAI, more then the actual cover (SCE). The people claiming its worthless are every bit as ridiculous as those claiming its gospel.

It's one damn tool.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It always was more about the rate of change....ie SAI, more then the actual cover (SCE). The people claiming its worthless are every bit as ridiculous as those claiming its gospel.

It's one damn tool.

It is for sure…but alot of these things/theory’s have a shelf life/come in and go out of style…and lose some of their initial fire once it becomes clear it’s not the end all be all.   That’s how this seems now…old hat so to speak and not the smoking gun folks hoped. Just like many other things. 

[forkyfork]

seasonal forecasting is a waste of time and nobody's good at it

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

seasonal forecasting is a waste of time and nobody's good at it

Perhaps, but it’s fun. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

seasonal forecasting is a waste of time and nobody's good at it

I'll betcha 50 bucks I'll be more right than wrong, ...even after "subjective review" tries to refute what is obvious, too -

Climate change is affecting winter.  ..badly.

Winter season forecasters are not adapting to that, or enough, either way. 

The way it is affecting is it is causing surplus of gradient, regardless of ENSO.  Regardless of polar index modes. In fact, the later appears to only add to it when those negative modes happen to be offloading over on our side of the N. hemisphere.  

Heights from Old Mexico to southern GA ... tend to stay 3-5 dm higher than the previous 300 years of climate inference. 

These are reproducing observations spanning 10 years at this point - other than outlier like 2015 Feb...which spikes along curves is also part of the business.  

Sometimes persistence is a forecaster's friend.  Knowing when 'she wants to break up with you' ? That's another story - eventually, they all break your heart.  But that's the problem... you're not getting pattern persistence in winters.  We've been seeing disruptions in winter pattern footprints - particularly in one regard:  very hard to maintain a pattern bias.  Mass field changes occurring in short duration time spans.  That stochastic aspect at large scales is causing a storm in January ( yay!) to be a week near 70 if not historic 80 in Februaries.  Snow in October... with 78 F high temperatures on May 15 with hydrostatic heights of 538 dam!   ( that's a weirdly odd, that synoptic combination of metrics).

The fact that our mix event flop vector appears to now be wet, not white...

Combinations of a varied spectrum of observational oddities, from sensible backyard, to more pan-dimensional/super-synoptic, can't be satisfied using the inferences that are still employed from the previous more stable climate - before the hockey stick got underway. 

But I don't put out seasonal forecasts... I wouldn't dare in a public venue like the Internet weather-based social forum, particularly now, when the winters are being affected by a warming world - ooh sign me up for that vitriol!  The convention of "stellar attention to objective reasoning and acceptance" that goes on here isn't really very conducive.   Plus, none of this means we can't have a better year, or even redux a 2015 something... It's a matter of said objectivity merely knowing the odds of doing that any given year  ... is going down

We'll either be below normal snow and above normal temperatures.

Or ... we'll bootleg our way to normal snow from a lucky coastal and windex events, with a smattering of front enders that switch to 33 rain instead of icing... with temperatures still finding a way to be above normal if by decimals. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

seasonal forecasting is a waste of time and nobody's good at it

So wasn't conjuring up electricity hundreds of years ago.

[radarman]

This is an admission against interest because I was involved in the development of the October snow cover theory at AER back in the early 2000s... but LOL @ blaming AGW for ruining it.  Sample size ruined it.  It's simply not a dominant signal.  All else being equal and null then sure it probably holds some merit. JMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, radarman said:

This is an admission against interest because I was involved in the development of the October snow cover theory at AER back in the early 2000s... but LOL @ blaming AGW for ruining it.  Sample size ruined it.  It's simply not a dominant signal.  All else being equal and null then sure it probably holds some merit. JMO

Exactly how I feel. Everyone shuns it once they realize it isn't the silver bullet of seasonal forecasting. It's just another tool...like the QBO, etc

[radarman]

As an aside, studies suggest that increased atmospheric moisture content as a result of AGW should actually enhance upward EP flux in the subtropics and polar regions, particularly in the winter.... That's the posited physical mechanism for disturbing the PV (or at least it used it to be).  I haven't followed the literature closely enough to see how well the link between snow cover (extent or advance) and +EP flux anomailes has been established over the years... we had some anecdotal evidence of correlation but not what I'd call conclusive, and the physical mechanism explanation could have used some work as well.  It also sucked when the Berlin site went down that you used to be able to monitor this stuff with.

At any rate, I can't help myself and still check wave 2 plots pretty often through December into Jan, but I've definitely got the feeling that the whole thing is a secondary signal at best as I've watched winters come and go.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

As an aside, studies suggest that increased atmospheric moisture content as a result of AGW should actually enhance upward EP flux in the subtropics and polar regions, particularly in the winter.... That's the posited physical mechanism for disturbing the PV (or at least it used it to be).  I haven't followed the literature closely enough to see how well the link between snow cover (extent or advance) and +EP flux anomailes has been established over the years... we had some anecdotal evidence of correlation but not what I'd call conclusive, and the physical mechanism explanation could have used some work as well.  It also sucked when the Berlin site went down that you used to be able to monitor this stuff with.

At any rate, I can't help myself and still check wave 2 plots pretty often through December into Jan, but I've definitely got the feeling that the whole thing is a secondary signal at best as I've watched winters come and go.

Thank you for your insights. I think you make the point about how many of us feel. 

[bristolri_wx]

I know this question has been asked before, but where does one get the maps or generate the maps that are used for multi-month and multi-year analogs that I see posted here often?  Just curious to play around with them when free time allows... fascinating stuff...

[Damage In Tolland]

He made sure he got “his home” in the Jack for winter, even though it doesn’t fit the axis. This is why LR forecasting is a joke 

 

[bristolri_wx]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He made sure he got “his home” in the Jack for winter, even though it doesn’t fit the axis. This is why LR forecasting is a joke 

 

Gotta love the map, with no blog post or even thread comments to explain his thoughts as to why he believes there will be below average temps and above average snow. 

[cleetussnow]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll betcha 50 bucks I'll be more right than wrong, ...even after "subjective review" tries to refute what is obvious, too -

Climate change is affecting winter.  ..badly.

Winter season forecasters are not adapting to that, or enough, either way. 

The way it is affecting is it is causing surplus of gradient, regardless of ENSO.  Regardless of polar index modes. In fact, the later appears to only add to it when those negative modes happen to be offloading over on our side of the N. hemisphere.  

Heights from Old Mexico to southern GA ... tend to stay 3-5 dm higher than the previous 300 years of climate inference. 

These are reproducing observations spanning 10 years at this point - other than outlier like 2015 Feb...which spikes along curves is also part of the business.  

Sometimes persistence is a forecaster's friend.  Knowing when 'she wants to break up with you' ? That's another story - eventually, they all break your heart.  But that's the problem... you're not getting pattern persistence in winters.  We've been seeing disruptions in winter pattern footprints - particularly in one regard:  very hard to maintain a pattern bias.  Mass field changes occurring in short duration time spans.  That stochastic aspect at large scales is causing a storm in January ( yay!) to be a week near 70 if not historic 80 in Februaries.  Snow in October... with 78 F high temperatures on May 15 with hydrostatic heights of 538 dam!   ( that's a weirdly odd, that synoptic combination of metrics).

The fact that our mix event flop vector appears to now be wet, not white...

Combinations of a varied spectrum of observational oddities, from sensible backyard, to more pan-dimensional/super-synoptic, can't be satisfied using the inferences that are still employed from the previous more stable climate - before the hockey stick got underway. 

But I don't put out seasonal forecasts... I wouldn't dare in a public venue like the Internet weather-based social forum, particularly now, when the winters are being affected by a warming world - ooh sign me up for that vitriol!  The convention of "stellar attention to objective reasoning and acceptance" that goes on here isn't really very conducive.   Plus, none of this means we can't have a better year, or even redux a 2015 something... It's a matter of said objectivity merely knowing the odds of doing that any given year  ... is going down

We'll either be below normal snow and above normal temperatures.

Or ... we'll bootleg our way to normal snow from a lucky coastal and windex events, with a smattering of front enders that switch to 33 rain instead of icing... with temperatures still finding a way to be above normal if by decimals. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, radarman said:

As an aside, studies suggest that increased atmospheric moisture content as a result of AGW should actually enhance upward EP flux in the subtropics and polar regions, particularly in the winter.... That's the posited physical mechanism for disturbing the PV (or at least it used it to be).  I haven't followed the literature closely enough to see how well the link between snow cover (extent or advance) and +EP flux anomailes has been established over the years... we had some anecdotal evidence of correlation but not what I'd call conclusive, and the physical mechanism explanation could have used some work as well.  It also sucked when the Berlin site went down that you used to be able to monitor this stuff with.

At any rate, I can't help myself and still check wave 2 plots pretty often through December into Jan, but I've definitely got the feeling that the whole thing is a secondary signal at best as I've watched winters come and go.

Terminating planetary waves at high latitude/altitude (basically the end game of WAA..) triggers PV perturbations.  But the two other factors play an important role there, too: the wave number at mid latitudes is one - A lower number implies more zonal bias limiting merdional transport.   The other being chemistry in the trapped PV as summer wanes to autumn.  

The latter is robustly enough correlated to UV/solar as those WL break up ozone.  Ozone is thermally conductive and when WAA plumes interact arriving via wave advection slowing the wind velocities …triggers the warm burst/intrusion - the two are positive feed back and the PV fractures.  That’s as it relates to SSW. 
 

The reason I’m mentioning this stuff is because there are recent studies/mathematical models showing that as the polar field is warming faster than the rest of the planet there’s a tendency for the Vortx to break down with more meridional structures emerging so it’s kind of hard to parse out what is caused by just fluid mechanics versus how much is that really EP originating out of the subtropics.  Those seem to be disparate mechanism?

Yeah I guess either way the culprit in the discussion is the A the G and the W regardless. 
 

 

[It's Always Sunny]

Updated winter outlook now that October SAI is out, with not much change really. Went cooler for Midwest, Great Lakes, with New England & Mid-Atlantic the same.  Use whichever link it's the same content but some have had trouble accessing it in the past. It's not nearly as in-depth as some other people's on this forum since we all have varying levels of free time. Either way, enjoy.

https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/updated-winter-weather-outlook-2022-2023

https://baystatewx.blogspot.com/

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I know this question has been asked before, but where does one get the maps or generate the maps that are used for multi-month and multi-year analogs that I see posted here often?  Just curious to play around with them when free time allows... fascinating stuff...

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/

Thanks!  Was snooping around that site but that second link was the one I was looking for!

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Updated winter outlook now that October SAI is out, with not much change really. Went cooler for Midwest, Great Lakes, with New England & Mid-Atlantic the same.  Use whichever link it's the same content but some have had trouble accessing it in the past. It's not nearly as in-depth as some other people's on this forum since we all have varying levels of free time. Either way, enjoy.

https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/updated-winter-weather-outlook-2022-2023

https://baystatewx.blogspot.com/

We are have way through the month....I would hold off on using the SAI.

[It's Always Sunny]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are have way through the month....I would hold off on using the SAI.

I'm aware, thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I'm aware, thanks.

Well, you mentioned "now that October SAI is out", like it matters what it is mid month...maybe I read too much into it...

[Ginx snewx]

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Perhaps, but it’s fun. 

He doesn't like fun just being miserable. . Just like the first car it takes decades to perfect.  Seasonal has indeed come a long way but far from able to nail complete tenor. 8 to 10 weeks advance seems to be the limit.