Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[WinterWolf]

May sound like a dumb question…but what are the boundary lines within the individual states, on those composite maps?  They’re obviously not counties because they span multiple states sometimes.  For example the line/loop in wester Mass that comes into western CT…what the hell does that represent/or supposed to be?   Or Florida, it has 3 horizontal lines going across the peninsula separating it into 4 parts? What do those boundary lines represent?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

May sound like a dumb question…but what are the boundary lines within the individual states, on those composite maps?  They’re obviously not counties because they span multiple states sometimes.  For example the line/loop in wester Mass that comes into western CT…what the hell does that represent/or supposed to be?   Or Florida, it has 3 horizontal lines going across the peninsula separating it into 4 parts? What do those boundary lines represent?  

I think the climate division has distinct zones that they use to collect data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray has more classified documents than Trump has at Mar-A-Lago.

The composite is a list of cold ENSO seasons that I have deemed as quality June through September national temp anomaly matches to this year...I have weighted a few more heavily than the others. You'll see shortly after Halloweenie, and if it doesn't make sense then, I'll answer all questions.

I also have one for precip, which is more difficult IMHO, ACE and solar considerations. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@512highWhat are you confused about?

[ORH_wxman]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the climate division has distinct zones that they use to collect data.

This is correct...it's all how NCDC (or whatever they are called now, NCEI?) split them up way back in the day to organize their climate data.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the climate division has distinct zones that they use to collect data.

Those are the forecast zones, with N. Maine the biggest east of the Mississippi - no surprise given population weighting, though climo at Jackman is quite different from MLT is different from CAR.  I don't think any zones cross state boundaries; the east boundaries of western CT/MA meet but are separate zones.

[Ginx snewx]

LETS DO THIS wow

[CoastalWx]

You really want to see the H5 anomalies. 

[512high]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@512highWhat are you confused about?

How you derive at everything ACE/solar etc. soooo over my head that's all, and math was not my favorite subject way back when.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

How you derive at everything ACE/solar etc. soooo over my head that's all, and math was not my favorite subject way back when.

Oh, sorry. ACE is just Accumulated Cyclone Energy...its a measure of the energy emitted by tropical systems. Solar just refers to current position in the solar cycle...ie, we are currently ascending into solar cycle 25, so you want to consider other seasons that were also ascending. This will all be explained.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You really want to see the H5 anomalies. 

Yea, looks like probably a signal for some higher Greenland heights, but tough to infer too much from those MSLP maps.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

LETS DO THIS wow

Strong signal for aleutian high and -PNA. Maybe a little help from a -NAO

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, sorry. ACE is just Accumulated Cyclone Energy...its a measure of the energy emitted by tropical systems. Solar just refers to current position in the solar cycle...ie, we are currently ascending into solar cycle 25, so you want to consider other seasons that were also ascending. This will all be explained.

Excellent call by the way with below normal ACE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Excellent call by the way with below normal ACE.

I don't make long term tropical predictions...that was actually Cosgrove and Raindance.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Strong signal for aleutian high and -PNA. Maybe a little help from a -NAO

Give me a semi permanent negative EPO and I will show show a good and cold winter in New England no matter the other indices variations. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, looks like probably a signal for some higher Greenland heights, but tough to infer too much from those MSLP maps.

Surface heights tend to line up with 5 h. Semi permanent neg EPO let's fucking go

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Surface heights tend to line up with 5 h. Semi permanent neg EPO let's fucking go

Yea, I would say the overall consensus there is neg EPO/PNA and slight negative NAO.

[pasnownut]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I would say the overall consensus there is neg EPO/PNA and slight negative NAO.

That even works down here.  Hoping that look holds as we get closer.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I would say the overall consensus there is neg EPO/PNA and slight negative NAO.

Curious what their respective reason were.  

I had figured for a season being some kind of lower than the gushy mainstream media’s reported  counts ( which is technically different than ACE ) … tho I didn’t care to engage in any kind of discourse in the matter last spring   tl;dr attitudes in modernity ‘bloated with virtuosity for real and profound engagement’ … definitely fosters motivation for poignant composition  

whether the counts were low or ace was low leans on a moral victory  ha

My reasoning didn’t incorporate solar this AMO that … i’m sure that stuff has a numerical significance when using linear approaches to the statistics over extended periods of time and is probably just as valid.  I just kept it simple and was looking at recent papers regarding how climate change is affecting the circulation medium all over the planet -,admittedly a lot of those discussions are actually mirroring some of my own observations that I’ve been writing about here and elsewhere…

Maybe it’s just coming to a similar conclusion via different means.  I think I did post some hints that I didn’t think would be a very good season along the eastern seaboard which at the time was related to the same reasoning regarding circulation components of the hemisphere earlier last spring.

you know as a somewhat unrelated matter to this discussion, but perhaps more important to the purpose of this thread … it might be interesting if we have a surplus of OHE in the gulf and adjacent southwest Atlantic up the eastern seaboard as we plumb deeper into the cold season. You know maybe we can actually get one of these cold surges to kiss that with some bigger deltas  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Curious what their respective reason were.  

I had figured for a season being some kind of lower than the gushy mainstream media’s reported  counts ( which is technically different than ACE ) … tho I didn’t care to engage in any kind of discourse in the matter last spring   tl;dr attitudes in modernity ‘bloated with virtuosity for real and profound engagement’ … definitely fosters motivation for poignant composition  

whether the counts were low or ace was low leans on a moral victory  ha

My reasoning didn’t incorporate solar this AMO that … i’m sure that stuff has a numerical significance when using linear approaches to the statistics over extended periods of time and is probably just as valid.  I just kept it simple and was looking at recent papers regarding how climate change is affecting the circulation medium all over the planet -,admittedly a lot of those discussions are actually mirroring some of my own observations that I’ve been writing about here and elsewhere…

Maybe it’s just coming to a similar conclusion via different means.  I think I did post some hints that I didn’t think would be a very good season along the eastern seaboard which at the time was related to the same reasoning regarding circulation components of the hemisphere earlier last spring.

you know as a somewhat unrelated matter to this discussion, but perhaps more important to the purpose of this thread … it might be interesting if we have a surplus of OHE in the gulf and adjacent southwest Atlantic up the eastern seaboard as we plumb deeper into the cold season. You know maybe we can actually get one of these cold surges to kiss that with some bigger deltas  

 

Well, by consensus, I was just referring to the seasonal guidance posted...not forecasters.

Cosgrove is on this stormy train that you are alluding to.....he thinks its going to be very stormy, like 92-93 and 93-94 with a big STJ. I think @raindancewx is in that camp, too, but he has a very mild outlook in the east. Cosgrove is cold with a negative AO/NAO.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, by consensus, I was just referring to the seasonal guidance posted...not forecasters.

Cosgrove is on this stormy train that you are alluding to.....he thinks its going to be very stormy, like 92-93 and 93-94 with a big STJ. I think @raindancewx is in that camp, too, but he has a very mild outlook in the east. Cosgrove is cold with a negative AO/NAO.

Interesting…

And just adding to the conjecture – in keeping with the threads title. 

But it’s funny how we’re in an era ( I mean like over a decade in length ) where these longer-termed, broader scaled teleconnectors seem to correlate less obviously, at times failing coherence… It’s been occurring greater frequency than their mutual correlation coefficients  

What I mean by that is… ex: the AOs meander away from QBO correlation.   Or these extended span of times during winters whence the apparent circulation mode of the westerlies decoupled from the ENSO state.  Etc.

Pretty sure there is a multi decadal AO that follows the solar cycle – seldom do I hear it discussed in here but the correlation is out there … I’ve seen it graphed and written. It’s  positive, such that when the solar is down the AOs tend negative and vice versa.  We’ve definitely been down in a solar extending along … I think it’s a 23 year oscillation…  The 11 year mins were embedded in that 2ndary differential … such that they were more min than normal min () if that makes any sense.  Yet since 2000 the sign of the northern annular mode has averaged positive?

that might be a long winded bad example lol  But it also seems a lot of negative AOs failed to deliver cold, as an after thought  

so I guess the overarching theme to this whole thing is that it’s adding headaches to using linear correlations to project what the indexes may do based on historical inferences and analogs, because the emerging hard-to-ignore unstable domain borrows from confidence 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting…

And just adding to the conjecture – in keeping with the threads title. 

But it’s funny how we’re in an era ( I mean like over a decade in length ) where these longer-termed, broader scaled teleconnectors seem to correlate less obviously, at times failing coherence… It’s been occurring greater frequency than their mutual correlation coefficients  

What I mean by that is… ex: the AOs meander away from QBO correlation.   Or these extended span of times during winters whence the apparent circulation mode of the westerlies decoupled from the ENSO state.  Etc.

Pretty sure there is a multi decadal AO that follows the solar cycle – seldom do I hear it discussed really very often in here but the correlation is out there … I’ve seen it graphed and written. It’s  positive, such that when the solar is down the AOs tends negative and vice versa.  We’ve definitely been down in a solar extending along … I think it’s a 23 year oscillation…  The 11 year mins were embedded in that 2ndary differential … such that they were more min than normal min () if that makes any sense.  Yet since 2000 the sign of the northern annular mode has averaged positive?

that might be a long winded bad example lol  But it also seems a lot of negative AOs failed to deliver cold.

so I guess the overarching theme to this whole thing is that it’s adding headaches to using linear correlations to project what the indexes may do based on historical inferences and analogs, because the emerging hard-to-ignore unstable domain borrows from confidence 

 

We are actually well into recovery from the solar nadir of 2020....starting to border on high-solar.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are actually well into recovery from the solar nadir of 2020....starting to border on high-solar.

Right and so if we hang up the AO in a negative state this winter that would be a breakdown in that correlation.

But none of theses are 1::1. duh. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw -

[ORH_wxman]

We are still fairly low solar by historical standards....SS24 had a very weak peak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We are still fairly low solar by historical standards....SS24 had a very weak peak.

Yea, but I definitely don't think it can still be classified as "low".

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We are still fairly low solar by historical standards....SS24 had a very weak peak.

Yeah what I was talking about with the last two solar cycles being in a 23 year nadir is nicely demonstrated there. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if this will be the first winter in history, in which 70 F was reported at least once during all three months of Dec, Jan, and Feb.   

...then of course we can't touch 40 in March... but wouldn't that be hoot.

[Ginx snewx]

Looking forward to the first death band of the winter. 

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking forward to the first death band of the winter. 

Agreed.