dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Uh oh…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess. 2021 25.55 25.75 26.48 27.10 27.47 27.45 26.90 26.32 26.17 25.77 25.76 25.54 2022 25.59 25.85 26.30 26.70 26.81 26.97 26.59 25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog. If you don't read the blog, than how in the hell do you know what I said? I explicitly mentioned that I favored cool ENSO in my only June post. You make shit up. What a lonely, miserable soul...go count your money by yourself in your basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 Where does this say el nino, you miserable, socially inept troll? https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/06/la-nina-advisory-remains-in-place.html JUN 23 La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June Third Consecutive La Nina for Boreal Winter 2022-2023 Far From Certain; El Nino Very Unlikely On the heels of two consecutive moderate la nina events, the June 2022 update from the International Research Institute continues the seemingly interminable cold ENSO event into spring 2023. As illustrated in the graphic above, the consensus is essentially split between a weak la nina event and a cold ENSO neutral season. This implies that the former is more likely early on in the winter season, and the latter later into the season. Guidance is firm that while another moderate la nina event is unlikely, it is also becoming increasingly improbably that we see a complete phase shift to an el nino for the coming winter, the likelihood of which is currently being assessed as just 6-8% by the IRI as of June 20. This conclusion is also supported by climatology. Spring Recovery & Current Intensity of La Nina Renders an El Nino Exceedingly Unlikely for Winter 2022-2023 When Considering Potential Pacific Analogs The MAM ONI value was calculated at -1.1, which is up from the FMA value of -1.0. Since 1950, the only two seasons to go on to qualify as an official el nino by current CPC standards during the subsequent cold seasons following a MAM ONI of -0.5 or lower are 1976 and 2018...both peaked as marginal la nina events at a mere -0.5 MAM ONI value, which is much lower than the current -1.1 reading. Furthermore, each of the aforementioned seasons peaked at +0.9 ONI, which extrapolated onto this season only yields a peak ONI of +0.3, which is warm neutral. Additionally, the recovery of the ONI value back down to -1.1 as of MAM was referenced earlier, which also casts doubt on the notion that our run of cold ENSO is coming to an end. The only two la nina seasons since 1950 to feature a re-intensification of la nina during the spring are 1975, which also came on the heels of two consecutive la nina events, and 1955. Both seasons went onto register official la nina events during the following winter season. In fact, the latter season ended up being the strongest Pacific analog for a myriad of different reasons throughout this past cold season. Namely, it was the only other la nina event as powerful as the one this past season that was biased as far to the east. It also featured the most extreme December RNA (-2.07) until this past December, which set the record with a value of -2.56. Indeed, there may be value to be gleaned from considering not only the behavior of the tropical pacific during potential ENSO analogs, but also during Pacific analogs in general. Using Behavior of ENSO Following Past Extreme RNA Months of December to Analogs In addition to this past December, the other extreme -PDO Decembers are 1955, as already mentioned, 1964, 2008 and 2010. In order to register an official el nino by CPC standards during the next cold season, there would need to be an observed recovery as drastic as 2009, on the heels of the extreme 12/2008 PDO, which recovered from a MAM 2009 ONI of -0.3 to +1.6 in NDJ. This extreme of a reversal in the equatorial Pacific would extrapolate back up to a peak of +0.8 ONI for the cold season, which would meet the criteria for an official weak el nino designation. However, the subsurface, while supportive of enough of a recovery to avoid a third consecutive la nina, is not conducive to the drastic recovery necessary to register an el nino peak next winter. The average temperature anomaly throughout the upper 300 meters of the ocean between 100 and 180 degrees longitude over the tropical Pacific, which encompasses from ENSO region 3 to 4, is a mere -.10C for the month of May 2022 and has been slowly propagating above the 100 meter level and rather aggressively eastward into the main ENSO region of 3.4. This compares to an average subsurface reading of +.87C for the same region in May of 2009. While this is in agreement with current guidance and climatology that ENSO neutral conditions remain a viable outcome given the slight upwelling and considerable advance of positive subsurface anomalies eastward throughout the main ENSO region, it is not at all suggestive of the notion that an el nino for boreal winter 2022-2023 is a realistic possibility. A conclusion that is also in accordance with the consensus derived from both guidance and climatology. Finally, although subsurface data is not available for May 1956 of 1965, since it has only been recorded since 1979, the value May 2011 subsurface value following the extreme RNA December of 2010 was recorded as +.47C, which is also significantly warmer than the May 2022 value of -.10c. The OND 2011 peak ONI value still registered as a la nina at -1.1C, which as a far cry from el nino. Thus in conclusion, the early consensus when considering both guidance, as well as climatological considerations with respect to both the current state of the subsurface and surface of the equatorial Pacific is for either weak la nina or ENSO neutral conditions for boreal winter 2022-2023. More on what that may entail regarding sensible weather conditions across the eastern US later on this summer and throughout the autumn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess. 2021 25.55 25.75 26.48 27.10 27.47 27.45 26.90 26.32 26.17 25.77 25.76 25.54 2022 25.59 25.85 26.30 26.70 26.81 26.97 26.59 25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog. .... Maybe that's why you don't anything valuable. Why beef online with a stranger? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 Here is the link to all of my blog posts....by all means, find me an entry advocating for el nino. https://www.blogger.com/blog/posts/2820149554058213224 Again, I wagered a complete guess in mid March based upon nothing at all except for the fact that we were coming off of two consecutive la nina events. I hadn't researched anything...which is why I said el nino at that time. Its not my fault you eat Thanksgiving dinner by yourself coming up with esoteric correlations to support snow in New Mexico that no one else on god's green earth gives a flying fart about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 Perfect example of a write up ripping myself for an awful forecast.....no clue where this crap comes from. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/05/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html You want to say my stuff is garbage, that is okay with me...this is just a hobby and I do the best that I can. But don't tell me that I am dishonest about the results. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess. 2021 25.55 25.75 26.48 27.10 27.47 27.45 26.90 26.32 26.17 25.77 25.76 25.54 2022 25.59 25.85 26.30 26.70 26.81 26.97 26.59 25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog. I don’t think getting the enso state wrong 6 months out from winter means you are a terrible forecaster. Maybe it looked like it would be warm neutral at the time, but things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 On 6/14/2022 at 11:25 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I feel like the guidance will warm later towards the fall. I do not see an el nino by CPC guidelines, but warm neutral is in play. I guess this first post is what he is referring to. First of all, this is nothing more than conjecture...as the title suggests. Its just open dialogue and not at all a forecast. On 6/23/2022 at 2:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm fairly confident at this early juncture that we either going to have ENSO neutral or weak la nina conditions for winter 2022-2023. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/06/la-nina-advisory-remains-in-place.html This is when a I began to actually look at data and develop an informed opinion, which is my first blog post on the season. Everything before this point was just me talking out of my rear while being immersed in fantasy baseball. Again, during the winter I only concentrate on snow threats and then I take the spring off and look at nothing. Why on earth he takes open chatter amongst friends as a forecast is beyond me. This is why I have a blog, in order to distinguish between organized and informed meteorological insight from simple chatter. But he has already admitted that he doesn't look at the blog, so he wouldn't know that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 LOL why the anger man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL why the anger man. Money can’t buy you love. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Fight , fight, fight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Money can’t buy you love. Maybe we need to buy him a “companion” for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 You wonder if Raindance does his outlook thinking of Ray while playing this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 “Ray is…:en-a-myyyy” ”My ENSO en-a-myyyy” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Money can’t buy you love. why don't you clean this thread up so it is worth while to engage ? - along with some sort of statement that this isn't a tennis match for validating egos, much less any kind of venue for one to try and establish themselves/earn celebrity while we are at it. jeez 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: why don't you clean this thread up so it is worth while to engage ? - along with some sort of statement that this isn't a tennis match for validating egos, much less any kind of venue for one to try and establish themselves/earn celebrity while we are at it. jeez I not trying to validate my ego, he is. I'm merely trying to validate my integrity and establish fact from fiction. No surer sign of an ego in distress than the need to spend time seeking validation via the invalidation of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 16 hours ago, raindancewx said: It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess. 2021 25.55 25.75 26.48 27.10 27.47 27.45 26.90 26.32 26.17 25.77 25.76 25.54 2022 25.59 25.85 26.30 26.70 26.81 26.97 26.59 25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog. @raindancewxI'm not quite sure what's rubbing you the wrong way, but you need to get over it. I've been following this thread since it started since Winter is the weather season I'm most interested in. Numerous times you have posted your opinions here on this thread, and they've been met with interest, none negative. Yet, when posters have replied to you with additional questions or more opinion, you really haven't provided any. I went back and re-read this entire thread just because it's a slow work day (I'm stuck in front of a computer 65 hrs a week), and only once Ray mentioned that he thought he might have some confidence that a warm-neutral ENSO state would occur this winter season. And in fact, a week later he posted a link to his blog that he was NOT confident that would be the case, and pointed to a weak La Niña instead as more of a possibility. You didn't need a PhD in English to get the point. I enjoy reading your long term forecast and analog ideas when you post them here, but I'm not sure why the lash-out at Ray. He doesn't need me or anyone else to defend him. Nobody here is making guaranteed Fall/Winter ENSO forecasts in the April through June timeframe, and I don't believe anyone here thought that to be the case as this thread has evolved. If anything, there's been much more chatter about 24-25 being a warm ENSO than anything else. I highly recommend not following the "Summer's Eve Guide to Posting on Internet Forums, 3rd edition." vebatim, as it does you no favors. Now back to our regularly scheduled winter conjecture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I not trying to validate my ego, he is. I'm merely trying to validate my integrity and establish fact from fiction. No surer sign of an ego in distress than the need to spend time seeking validation via the invalidation of others. The resent wasn't directed at you or any one in particular. It was to address the vitriol, in general - I didn't frankly 'study' who said what and/or why and then filter it through the psycho-babble checklist of probable triggering motivations, intents and purposes LOL... I would like to contribute to a seasonal weather discussion - now that it is October - but came in here this morning and there's no real directive... blah blah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The resent wasn't directed at you or any one in particular. It was to address the vitriol, in general - I didn't frankly 'study' who said what and/or why and then filter it through the psycho-babble checklist of probable triggering motivations, intents and purposes LOL... I would like to contribute to a seasonal weather discussion - now that it is October - but came in here this morning and there's no real directive... blah blah Yea, I'm sorry about that. I allowed him to hijack the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm sorry about that. I allowed him to hijack the thread. Maybe time for a new Winter 2022-2023 thread. A thread that's more confident! A thread that is dry and secure! EDIT: The Winter 2021-2022 thread did run from March through November 30 last season... so maybe it's to early to call this one lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: Maybe time for a new Winter 2022-2023 thread. A thread with more confidence! A thread that is dry and secure! Kudos in the Summers Eve reference-it was priceless! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Maybe time for a new Winter 2022-2023 thread. A thread with more confidence! A thread that is dry and secure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Maybe time for a new Winter 2022-2023 thread. A thread with more confidence! A thread that is dry and secure! Most outlooks will be out over the next month, anyway....mine will be out in about a month and Raindance in like a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most outlooks will be out over the next month, anyway....mine will be out in about a month and Raindance in like a week. Yeah I edited my post that your thread from last season ran right though 11/30/21. It is long-range winter forecast season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I not trying to validate my ego, he is. I'm merely trying to validate my integrity and establish fact from fiction. No surer sign of an ego in distress than the need to spend time seeking validation via the invalidation of others. Listen you got a little twisted last winter due to your December forecast. Just settle down this year. It’s just weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Ha, I was thinking this though: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 I apologize for taking us off track. To make @Typhoon Tip happy, here's on-topic subject matter, with a link to Accuweather's 2022-2023 US winter forecast: https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283 Highlights for us: La Niña, volume 3 Average snowfall SNE/NH/VT, above average ME Slightly above average temps Average precip Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano may have lingering effects on this winter's weather. "Boston may end up being the only major city along the Interstate 95 corridor that finishes the winter with near-normal snowfall. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Last winter, Boston finished the season with 54 inches of snow with 23.5 inches falling during a blizzard on Jan. 29." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Listen you got a little twisted last winter due to your December forecast. Just settle down this year. It’s just weather. Twisted? The December forecast was wrong...it was pretty clear. I never stated otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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