Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah those colder early 2000s winters (sans '01-'02) had the cold centered right over NY/New England. We haven't really seen that since on any sustained basis except maybe for that 8-10 week period in 2015.

 

 

Totally see that....the next winter I see as very similar to 2002-2003, both in terms of intensity and structure. As Raindance so eloquently pointed out, at the inception of this thread I speculated that it would be this coming season, but as it turns out it will be the next one. That became clear once I picked back up tracking ENSO early in the summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We seem to be due for a flip soon. Likely not as cold vs prior periods due to continued effects of cc but much colder than we've been. 

Could this winter be the beginning of that. I hear 2000-01 being thrown around as an analog. Could be fitting since it marked the change from the mild/BN snow years of the mid-late 90s. 

That year has some strengths, but there is another one that I like even better....much better temp/precip match to this past summer, and also a better fit in terms of ACE value.

[Volcanic Winter]

I’m in NJ but am absolutely ready for a cooler / colder winter. Last January felt like a tease. 
 

The 1/29 event was also one of the coldest snowstorms I can remember in my location a little inland from the Jersey shoreline (about 12 miles). We were in the lower to mid 20’s during snowfall which is few and far between for my location during big events as we more frequently straddle the freezing line. 
 

I have a particular interest in geology and volcanology (sure my username gives that away) but specifically how it relates to climatology, as large volcanic events throughout history have caused major climate disruptions. Especially a couple years after Tambora in 1815, after Laki in the 1780’s, Krakatau in the 1880’s, and most recently Pinatubo in 1991 (I’ve read its effects beyond cooling caused anomalous disruption to the jet streams and may have had a hand in the 1993 superstorm). Now we have HTHH which was anomalous as far as large explosive eruptions go as there was little sulphur flux (the main vehicle of volcanic cooling) but tons of water vapor. I saw the article about southern stratospheric cooling and its possible correlative link to NH stratospheric warming, though it’s comparitive years were not due to volcanic effects. 
 

Color me intrigued for this winter. I hope it’s a cold and productive one for all of us. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally see that....the next winter I see as very similar to 2002-2003, both in terms of intensity and structure. As Raindance so eloquently pointed out, at the inception of this thread I speculated that it would be this coming season, but as it turns out it will be the next one. That became clear once I picked back up tracking ENSO early in the summer.

To further my point above....this is pretty amazing....look at the difference in winter temps between 2008-2022 and 1991-2007.....where is the warmest region in the US? New England. Coldest? Upper plains.

 

 

A winter like '02-'03 would def work to reverse that trend. That winter was actually pretty mild in the northern plains but it was frigid over NE.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To further my point above....this is pretty amazing....look at the difference in winter temps between 2008-2022 and 1991-2007.....where is the warmest region in the US? New England. Coldest? Upper plains.

 

 

A winter like '02-'03 would def work to reverse that trend. That winter was actually pretty mild in the northern plains but it was frigid over NE.

 

 

That is my early favorite for winter '23-'24......caveat for raindance, not at all a forecast at this point, so don't grade it.

Back to this year, there is one year that I really like that is an absolutely exceptional match in terms of summer precip, okay for summer temps, and great match in terms of ACE and solar. 

Main flaws of this year:

-  While decent, the summer temp match is not great

- QBO is off, as its easterly...but not a huge deal.

- While it is another basin wide la nina, its focused a bit further to the east...like 2010-2011, so couple all of that with climate change, and it would be a modified version. Anyway, as we all know, analogs are a tool and never meant to imply a replica season.

But this goes along with the theme for a big December and fast start.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another analog that I really like is 1956-1957...that will be up there on my list.

[Ginx snewx]

Weak to moderate Ninas Ninos are a crap shoot up here. Too much emphasis IMHO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Weak to moderate Ninas Ninos are a crap shoot up here. Too much emphasis IMHO

If you considered ENSO intensity in a vacuum, I absolutely agree. Hopefully in this day and age no one is doing that.

[George001]

For what it’s worth the MEI is already starting to rise. Ray mentioned in his blog that this is something to watch out for. It peaked at -2.2 and the latest update had it rising to -1.8, this could be a sign that the dynamical guidance has the right idea of weakening the Nina earlier vs the statistical guidance having a moderate Nina into late winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, George001 said:

For what it’s worth the MEI is already starting to rise. Ray mentioned in his blog that this is something to watch out for. It peaked at -2.2 and the latest update had it rising to -1.8, this could be a sign that the dynamical guidance has the right idea of weakening the Nina earlier vs the statistical guidance having a moderate Nina into late winter. 

Yea, no brainer that will rise...it had to because it couldn't really get any lower.

I'll do another blog next week.

[weathafella]

I’m thinking it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get a better snow blower.

[Snowcrazed71]

Very interesting read. Wonder what this what bring us back to as far as the Winters go here n the US? 

https://interestingengineering.com/science/scientists-want-to-spray-sulphur-dioxide-into-the-atmosphere-to-refreeze-the-poles

[Ginx snewx]

Let's do this!

[bristolri_wx]

Unfortunately 2014-2015 does not show up anywhere on your chart 

[bristolri_wx]

7 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

Unfortunately 2014-2015 does not show up anywhere on your chart 

Hmm,  the post I replied to seems to have disappeared...

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Very interesting read. Wonder what this what bring us back to as far as the Winters go here n the US? 

https://interestingengineering.com/science/scientists-want-to-spray-sulphur-dioxide-into-the-atmosphere-to-refreeze-the-poles

Ironic that the acronym for the program is "SAI" lol

[Snowcrazed71]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ironic that the acronym for the program is "SAI" lol

Is that what you had been touting all along? ( that would be a good thing FYI ) ;-)

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is that what you had been touting all along? ( that would be a good thing FYI ) ;-)

No, the Snow Advance Index is also the SAI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html

[ORH_wxman]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html

I think we'll know a lot more in the next 2-4 weeks on if this ENSO event will get one last surge into solid moderate territory or if it will just sort of straddle the line between weak/moderate.

There's still very strong cold anomalies just lurkeng below the the sfc and the easterlies are forecast to pick up. Theoretically, we should see a strengthening of the Nina from this, but if it doesn't happen, we can prob stick a fork in anything stronger than low-end moderate. The previous round of easterlies though had trouble getting east of the dateline....so we'll see about this one over the next week.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think we'll know a lot more in the next 2-4 weeks on if this ENSO event will get one last surge into solid moderate territory or if it will just sort of straddle the line between weak/moderate.

There's still very strong cold anomalies just lurkeng below the the sfc and the easterlies are forecast to pick up. Theoretically, we should see a strengthening of the Nina from this, but if it doesn't happen, we can prob stick a fork in anything stronger than low-end moderate. The previous round of easterlies though had trouble getting east of the dateline....so we'll see about this one over the next week.

 

Yea, I remember us having this same conversation last month and frankly, I don't see that anything has changed. I expect a similar outcome.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I remember us having this same conversation last month and frankly, I don't see that anything has changed. I expect a similar outcome.

You can see the verification above how the easterly anomalies basically got stopped at the dateline in early September.....the current prog has them getting further east, but if verification is like last time, then this one will prob rot around -1C.

The one difference though is that the negative anomalies have risen closer to the surface than we had in mid/late August, so it won't take much for them to cool the sfc by several ticks. I'm really only focusing on the next 4-5 weeks or so....anything after October typically is getting too late to really affect the season from an ENSO standpoint....I suppose it could still affect late Feb into March, but there are a million other active variables that get stronger throughout the winter which can affect the season-end versus early on.

[Whineminster]

Is it even really worth conjecturing at this time frame? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the verification above how the easterly anomalies basically got stopped at the dateline in early September.....the current prog has them getting further east, but if verification is like last time, then this one will prob rot around -1C.

The one difference though is that the negative anomalies have risen closer to the surface than we had in mid/late August, so it won't take much for them to cool the sfc by several ticks. I'm really only focusing on the next 4-5 weeks or so....anything after October typically is getting too late to really affect the season from an ENSO standpoint....I suppose it could still affect late Feb into March, but there are a million other active variables that get stronger throughout the winter which can affect the season-end versus early on.

La nina will be dying by the latter portion of winter. I don't really see the progress with the subsurface...nor worried about it. I think the ceiling is -1.2 SON ONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Is it even really worth conjecturing at this time frame? 

The title is from March.

[Snowcrazed71]

There's a lot of positives as wehead into the fall season with Wimter right around the corner. 

This is a great read and very encouraging for a strong set up whichnwould give us a great setup here in the northeast ( and.other locations as well )

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-early-disruptive-event-winter-influence-united-states-europe-fa/

[SRRTA22]

On 9/14/2022 at 8:54 PM, raindancewx said:

I mean...honest to god this is the stuff that aggravates me.  Everyone is wrong, but you claim to be right now matter how perfectly opposite you get things. That's the only thing that consistently pisses me off - the dishonesty of it all. You were dead sure even into May, even June of an El Nino this year weren't you? Even with all of the giant flashing lights showing the opposite? I had January warm last year - but I've never once claimed it was some kind of amazing call, I was dead wrong. It is interesting that no one chimed in to suggest you had original ideas though isn't it? I do genuinely think you're an idiot, but that's not the reason I get angry.

I do find it funny when people with 50,000-100,000 posts on a weather forum claim I'm the one who is socially inept. Most of you literally don't have anything better to do than this stuff? Really? Do you just not value face to face interactions or what? It's hard to think of a bigger waste of time than posting here excessively. Whether you're perfect or a moron, the weather does what the weather does.

I'm actually getting pretty bored with all of this stuff. Going to delete all of my stuff in a few years once I retire permanently. I realized a few months that even though I'm already in the ~top 5% of wealth by American standards, I could really live like a king in Mexico - so I've been rummaging around that country looking for fun places to live and buy properties for much of the past year. Once I've finished my exploration of the 32 states in a few years, I'll pick five or six spots to buy buildings, and you all can go back to predicting severe cold/snow every winter without a peep from me.

I'd steal your girl tho and I'm broke as ****

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 9/14/2022 at 8:54 PM, raindancewx said:

I mean...honest to god this is the stuff that aggravates me.  Everyone is wrong, but you claim to be right now matter how perfectly opposite you get things. That's the only thing that consistently pisses me off - the dishonesty of it all. You were dead sure even into May, even June of an El Nino this year weren't you? Even with all of the giant flashing lights showing the opposite? I had January warm last year - but I've never once claimed it was some kind of amazing call, I was dead wrong. It is interesting that no one chimed in to suggest you had original ideas though isn't it? I do genuinely think you're an idiot, but that's not the reason I get angry.

I do find it funny when people with 50,000-100,000 posts on a weather forum claim I'm the one who is socially inept. Most of you literally don't have anything better to do than this stuff? Really? Do you just not value face to face interactions or what? It's hard to think of a bigger waste of time than posting here excessively. Whether you're perfect or a moron, the weather does what the weather does.

I'm actually getting pretty bored with all of this stuff. Going to delete all of my stuff in a few years once I retire permanently. I realized a few months that even though I'm already in the ~top 5% of wealth by American standards, I could really live like a king in Mexico - so I've been rummaging around that country looking for fun places to live and buy properties for much of the past year. Once I've finished my exploration of the 32 states in a few years, I'll pick five or six spots to buy buildings, and you all can go back to predicting severe cold/snow every winter without a peep from me.

Congrats on an all time meltdown. We wish you well in your future endeavors. We will miss you dearly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats on an all time meltdown. We wish you well in your future endeavors. We will miss you dearly. 

BTW, nothing says "expecting el nino" quite like my blog entry from June 23 ..."La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June"

[raindancewx]

It's no meltdown. You literally said you were fairly confident in a warm Neutral as late as 6/16. It's wonderful that you finally realized that conditions colder than last year for almost half a year weren't going to result in an El Nino I guess.

 2021  25.55  25.75  26.48  27.10  27.47  27.45  26.90  26.32  26.17  25.77  25.76  25.54
 2022  25.59  25.85  26.30  26.70  26.81  26.97  26.59  25.89 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

I've yet to see anything of value from you my entire time here. I sure as hell don't read your blog.