Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

[It's Always Sunny]

I can't connect to this.

Hm ok try this link
https://weatherchest.weebly.com/

I have it posted on my MA blog too if that one doesn’t work:

http://www.baystatewx.blogspot.com


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[ORH_wxman]

3rd year Ninas are pretty rare. But within that small sample, every December has been cold

Dec 1910

Dec 1975

Dec 2000

 

Dec '56 and '85 barely miss the cut due to them being borderline cold neutral cases, and Dec 1945 barely misses because the prior year was borderline cold-neutral sandwiched between 2 Ninas. 1956 was actually just barely below avg so you can classify it as average temps. But there is a notable lack of warmth in all those years for December.

So I think our chances for a colder December are increased this season from the baseline. Most of those winters went out with a relative whimper though with a huge exception of 2000-2001.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The prodigal son has returned to the subforum! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

3rd year Ninas are pretty rare. But within that small sample, every December has been cold

Dec 1910

Dec 1975

Dec 2000

 

Dec '56 and '85 barely miss the cut due to them being borderline cold neutral cases, and Dec 1945 barely misses because the prior year was borderline cold-neutral sandwiched between 2 Ninas. 1956 was actually just barely below avg so you can classify it as average temps. But there is a notable lack of warmth in all those years for December.

So I think our chances for a colder December are increased this season from the baseline. Most of those winters went out with a relative whimper though with a huge exception of 2000-2001.

I get the same vibe regarding December from a different methodology.

The end of the 1976 season was actually pretty good, too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just looking through my modoki la nina composite and its not as bad as one would think...save for 2011-2012, the seasons are only awful if la nina goes off of the rails and is in beast mode. Just as we see with respect to el nino, weaker events have more variability and are not as polarized by structure.

I do not think this year will be awful....not great, not bad.

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just looking through my modoki la nina composite and its not as bad as one would think...save for 2011-2012, the seasons are only awful if la nina goes off of the rails and is in beast mode. Just as we see with respect to el nino, weaker events have more variability and are not as polarized by structure.

I do not think this year will be awful....not great, not bad.

I'm wondering if this Nina starts moving away from the modoki look over the next 6-10 weeks. Coldest Tdepth anomalies are really centered over region 3.4/3. You obviously have to upwell them to the sfc, but they seem to be rising.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm wondering if this Nina starts moving away from the modoki look over the next 6-10 weeks. Coldest Tdepth anomalies are really centered over region 3.4/3. You obviously have to upwell them to the sfc, but they seem to be rising.

 

 

 

Yea, I was going to add that caveat......I will be delving into that much more beginning next week and through to the release of the outlook in November. Certainly can change...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think there is still room for this to become more of a basin wide event, but I don't see it becoming a decidedly eastern biased deal like last year. I don't think its a big deal whether its modoki or basin wide given that it will remain fairly weak.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was going to add that caveat......I will be delving into that much more beginning next week and through to the release of the outlook in November. Certainly can change...

Yeah the outlook would probably change if this goes more basin-wide, which I feel like has a decent chance of happening. I'm also wondering on intensity....a few weeks ago, I would have said no chance at a moderate Nina, but now I think that is perfectly plausible, though I still favor weak at the moment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the outlook would probably change if this goes more basin-wide, which I feel like has a decent chance of happening. I'm also wondering on intensity....a few weeks ago, I would have said no chance at a moderate Nina, but now I think that is perfectly plausible, though I still favor weak at the moment.

I think the most significant change would be that we would be more likely to see some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging, but unless it were strong, the data doesn't show that it is a huge deal. As far as intensity....sure, a moderate peak is definitely plausible because its never really strayed far below that threshold, but again....I don't feel its a big deal unless it got closer to the strong threshold, which I do not expect.

I think basin wide could also alter the timing in that it would increase the odds of a favorable mid season stretch, and place less emphasis early on in the season, but that is kind of minute detail for this range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you are really worried about that stray 2011-2012 outcome, then I guess it would be comforting to see it more basin wide.

Last year I saved the la nina EMI composites for the outlook itself because I was still editing them, but I can probably introduce them next week, since its all I need to do is add last season to the east-based composite.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you are really worried about that stray 2011-2012 outcome, then I guess it would be comforting to see it more basin wide.

Last year I saved the la nina EMI composites for the outlook itself because I was still editing them, but I can probably introduce them next week, since its all I need to do is add last season to the east-based composite.

I also think 2011 had some pretty big (and ill-timed) solar activity in November/December that may have played a role in a strong PV up in the EPO region that winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I also think 2011 had some pretty big (and ill-timed) solar activity in November/December that may have played a role in a strong PV up in the EPO region that winter.

Yup...big solar flare. I also think the solar flare last October played a role in keeping the polar domain pretty hostile most of the season...thankfully we got the poleward Aleutian ridge in January with the la nina being so eastern biased. 

I'm not worried about a 2011-2012 outcome, but we will deal with some lower heights up there is this remains a modoki.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup...big solar flare. I also think the solar flare last October played a role in keeping the polar domain pretty hostile most of the season...thankfully we got the poleward Aleutian ridge in January with the la nina being so eastern biased. 

I'm not worried about a 2011-2012 outcome, but we will deal with some lower heights up there is this remains a modoki.

Yep agreed. That has been a pretty typical feature for modoki Ninas. Even the good ones….you just hope that part of the polar domain stays decent enough to offset.

Hopefully we get a big SSW like 2000-2001 to offset some of that. That’s what probably gave us that epic finish that winter. 
 

Regardless, still feeling decent about December at least and maybe January. I’ll feel even better if this stays pretty weak. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep agreed. That has been a pretty typical feature for modoki Ninas. Even the good ones….you just hope that part of the polar domain stays decent enough to offset.

Hopefully we get a big SSW like 2000-2001 to offset some of that. That’s what probably gave us that epic finish that winter. 
 

Regardless, still feeling decent about December at least and maybe January. I’ll feel even better if this stays pretty weak. 

March 1975 was pretty good, too.

[George001]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup...big solar flare. I also think the solar flare last October played a role in keeping the polar domain pretty hostile most of the season...thankfully we got the poleward Aleutian ridge in January with the la nina being so eastern biased. 

I'm not worried about a 2011-2012 outcome, but we will deal with some lower heights up there is this remains a modoki.

Do you think the sun is going to go ballistic again or cooperate more this year? If the sun stays quiet this winter the polar vortex should be a lot weaker. It deepened to record strength last year so even if it doesn’t shatter into a billion pieces I would think there is a good chance the polar vortex will be more favorable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, George001 said:

Do you think the sun is going to go ballistic again or cooperate more this year? If the sun stays quiet this winter the polar vortex should be a lot weaker. It deepened to record strength last year so even if it doesn’t shatter into a billion pieces I would think there is a good chance the polar vortex will be more favorable. 

It won't be weaker...we are ascending into SC 25, but I think those sudden, big flare ups can wreak havoc with the polar domain.

[George001]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep agreed. That has been a pretty typical feature for modoki Ninas. Even the good ones….you just hope that part of the polar domain stays decent enough to offset.

Hopefully we get a big SSW like 2000-2001 to offset some of that. That’s what probably gave us that epic finish that winter. 
 

Regardless, still feeling decent about December at least and maybe January. I’ll feel even better if this stays pretty weak. 

It’s very unlikely based off the current guidance but how would it impact the winter outlook if the Nina grew to record strength, but became strongly east based? Is strong/east based a better outcome than weak/west based?

[George001]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It won't be weaker...we are ascending into SC 25, but I think those sudden, big flare ups can wreak havoc with the polar domain.

Oof if the polar vortex is record strength like last year that is a really bad sign for winter. I remember you saying the nina going east based saved us from a 2011-2012 type outcome with all the cold locked up over the North Pole. I see why you were hoping for an El Niño now, if the NAO is positive it’s less of a death sentence in a nino. Hell, wasn’t the nao raging positive during the 2014-2015 snow blitz? Hopefully the pacific cooperates and we can at least get a decent winter even if it isn’t anything crazy even with an unfavorable polar vortex.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

It’s very unlikely based off the current guidance but how would it impact the winter outlook if the Nina grew to record strength, but became strongly east based? Is strong/east based a better outcome than weak/west based?

Strong and east based is small sample, but good....2010-2011 and 1956-1957.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

Oof if the polar vortex is record strength like last year that is a really bad sign for winter. I remember you saying the nina going east based saved us from a 2011-2012 type outcome with all the cold locked up over the North Pole. I see why you were hoping for an El Niño now, if the NAO is positive it’s less of a death sentence in a nino. Hell, wasn’t the nao raging positive during the 2014-2015 snow blitz? Hopefully the pacific cooperates and we can at least get a decent winter even if it isn’t anything crazy even with an unfavorable polar vortex.

The NAO will average positive, but that doesn't mean we will never see neg NAO...best shots are early and late IMO. PNA may be decent, too,  which could save us.

[CoastalWx]

Solar is active. Probably helps for a +NAO. But give me a decent Pacific any day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Solar is active. Probably helps for a +NAO. But give me a decent Pacific any day.

Yea, I feel like +NAO is a given, but could be some more favorable stretches early and late.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I feel like +NAO is a given, but could be some more favorable stretches early and late.

Why are we so confident in a +NAO? Esp in a weakish ENSO regime? Solar activity is still pretty low by historical standards and we've had plenty of -NAO winters near the peak of solar cycles (see 2000-2001).

 

[CoastalWx]

I feel like it was a drop amid a higher uptick in 00-01? Like for now, we see an uptick amid a still lower solar activity regime. It probably means something, but I also think it's just one piece of the puzzle.

 

It does feel like we are sort of due for more blockiness.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why are we so confident in a +NAO? Esp in a weakish ENSO regime? Solar activity is still pretty low by historical standards and we've had plenty of -NAO winters near the peak of solar cycles (see 2000-2001).

 

In my opinion the trend of the solar cycle plays a significant role, and its ascending pretty quickly with regular activity.... coupled with a modoki la nina, which teleconnect to +NAO. Now, if la nina becomes more basin wide, them maybe I would soften my stance a bit. 2000-2001 is a decent analog and I am entertaining the notion of a solid ending, but we would need to see a major SSW manifest properly in order for a - NAO season to become more viable. I would not be shocked to see the AO average slightly negative and oppose the NAO a bit....kind of like what I suspect we may see in the Pacific in relation to the PDO/PNA.

I will get into all of this in more detail this fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it was a drop amid a higher uptick in 00-01? Like for now, we see an uptick amid a still lower solar activity regime. It probably means something, but I also think it's just one piece of the puzzle.

 

It does feel like we are sort of due for more blockiness.

Exactly my thoughts.

Agree RE blockiness, but it doesn't necessarily have to be this year...we could also still see some blockiness, while averaging a +DM NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

And if you look at 2000-2001, the middle portion of that season was not blocky, which is in alignment with my early thoughts with respect to this season...so IOW, consider a modified version of 2000-2001 in which the month of March isn't so extreme and what are you left with?

A slight DM +NAO  in the mean, which is essentially what 2002-2003 was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In my opinion the trend of the solar cycle plays a significant role, and its ascending pretty quickly with regular activity.... coupled with a modoki la nina, which teleconnect to +NAO. Now, if la nina becomes more basin wide, them maybe I would soften my stance a bit. 2000-2001 is a decent analog and I am entertaining the notion of a solid ending, but we would need to see a major SSW manifest properly in order for a seasonable NAO to become more viable. I would not be shocked to see the AO average slightly negative and oppose the NAO a bit....kind of like what I suspect we may see in the Pacific in relation to the PDO/PNA.

I will get into all of this in more detail this fall.

This is almost analogous to the correlation between storminess and the teleconnections, whereas it isn't so much the modes, but the modalities that are the correlators.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is almost analogous to the correlation between storminess and the teleconnections, whereas it isn't so much the modes, but the modalities that are the correlators.  

Does this hold up empirically? I can sort of understand the logic from a qualitative standpoint but I haven't seen anything empirical that backs it up. I'm just eyeballing these solar cycle graphs and I see all sorts of noise on the NAO for winters where the solar cycle was on the upswing.

It seems the "solar cycle increase/peak = +NAO" idea worked well in the +NAO-dominant period of 1980ish through early 2000s.....but outside of that period it's all over the place. The previous increase to peak was in the late 1960s to 1970ish (which we all know was massively -NAO period)....the one before that was the 1955-1959 period...another -NAO dominant stretch (sans '56-'57) and then the ones after that are 2010-2014 which was a mixed bag ('10-'11 and '12-13 were -NAO while '11-'12 and '13-14 were positive) and then the current one which started last year.