512high Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 On 6/8/2022 at 6:24 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe sensible weather wise....but off the top of my head, I would toss out 1957-1958, 1976-1977 (obviously modified), 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2014-2015 (obviously not 100" in 30 days). Expand So Ray , as of June 8, 2022, what time of year do we start to get a "hint" we maybe heading for a El Niño winter or "other"? August time frame ? October? I find it interesting even long range(10-15 days out) I don't see 90 deg. for ASH etc, which I have no issues with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 On 6/8/2022 at 6:06 PM, CoastalWx said: We 04-05. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 9, 2022 Author Share Posted June 9, 2022 On 6/9/2022 at 12:28 AM, 512high said: So Ray , as of June 8, 2022, what time of year do we start to get a "hint" we maybe heading for a El Niño winter or "other"? August time frame ? October? I find it interesting even long range(10-15 days out) I don't see 90 deg. for ASH etc, which I have no issues with! Expand My confidence is usually pretty high by September.....what I am confident of right now is that I do not see an intense, or even moderate ENSO event next season....just a matter of which side of neutral it will lay. The Pacific has been my strength with respect to seasonal forecasting....its the Atlantic and polar domain that I have really struggled with. I have nailed (verification is defined as within .3 either direction) my ENSO forecasts 7/8 seasons.....however, you would have been better served assuming the opposite of whatever I forecast with respect to the NAO, as I am 0/6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 On 6/10/2022 at 5:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery. Expand Only going by gut, but this will be an interior winter. Not saying I get 30" and you get 100"...but I could see a 00-01 vibe. It's just due to happen at any point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 On 6/10/2022 at 5:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery. Expand Would not complain about a repeat - 1976-77 gave the local co-op 116% average snow and 2nd coldest met winter since 1917-18 (their coldest), so great retention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Weak El Nino probably coming.. We have been strongest -PDO in 50+ years though.. I'd expect Alaska to keep warming(minus -EPO)-(wonder what that looks like?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 On 6/8/2022 at 6:06 PM, CoastalWx said: We 04-05. Expand Kind of an evolutionary time. We have done 6 straight -PNA Winter's, and 5 February's with an average of +4SD -PNA. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Also rember Dec 2010 was major -PNA leap (300 vs 230dm #2), and Dec 2021 leaped from that (like 360dm vs 300dm) . This is what 11-12 looked like(notice duality) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Btw, what a stretch this was of PV-northern land, we almost favored -AO though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 On 6/12/2022 at 8:53 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Weak El Nino probably coming.. We have been strongest -PDO in 50+ years though.. I'd expect Alaska to keep warming(minus -EPO)-(wonder what that looks like?) Expand I am beginning to grow confident that it will be warm-neutral.....I think a full-fledged el nino is exceedingly unlikely looking at ONI climo data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 2018-2019 and, as already mentioned, 1976-1977 will be two potential analogs to monitor in the early going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 14, 2022 Author Share Posted June 14, 2022 2012-2013 is another potential analog to keep in mind... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 A lot of guidance still fairly cool. Like weak Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 14, 2022 Author Share Posted June 14, 2022 On 6/14/2022 at 2:18 PM, CoastalWx said: A lot of guidance still fairly cool. Like weak Nina. Expand Yea, I feel like the guidance will warm later towards the fall. I do not see an el nino by CPC guidelines, but warm neutral is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 I'm fairly confident at this early juncture that we either going to have ENSO neutral or weak la nina conditions for winter 2022-2023. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/06/la-nina-advisory-remains-in-place.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 I’m kinda over ninas at this point though. Would like a solid southern jet to enhance things for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6, 2022 Author Share Posted July 6, 2022 On 7/6/2022 at 2:58 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m kinda over ninas at this point though. Would like a solid southern jet to enhance things for a change. Expand I don't think this will be like last year's la nina in the sense that it will not be as prominent a player across the hemisphere...IOW, we may see more variation in the pattern. It isn't going to be as pervasive a driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 On 7/6/2022 at 1:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think this will be like last year's la nina in the sense that it will not be as prominent a player across the hemisphere...IOW, we may see more variation in the pattern. It isn't going to be as pervasive a driver. Expand Cool. The sloppy phases and saggy double boob events was irritating. I don’t know if it was Tippy’s HC or a function of enso that caused it but I’d like to fire some juice up from the equator, and play with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 On 7/6/2022 at 5:04 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cool. The sloppy phases and saggy double boob events was irritating. I don’t know if it was Tippy’s HC or a function of enso that caused it but I’d like to fire some juice up from the equator, and play with fire. Expand just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58! 1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again 57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 here are the composites of these five winters and their Februaries: I think these pretty much speak for themselves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 On 7/6/2022 at 5:04 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cool. The sloppy phases and saggy double boob events was irritating. I don’t know if it was Tippy’s HC or a function of enso that caused it but I’d like to fire some juice up from the equator, and play with fire. Expand Booby lows probably not due to Nina. Hell sometimes getting a coastal In Nina is tough, so chalk it up to nuances in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Actually that late Jan storm sort of reminded me of the Feb 06 storm in that we didn’t quite have the CCB. It was a lot of mid level magic, but east of that slotted pretty good. The classic ones like Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 had great CCB action east of the mid level goodies. That’s why you had widespread 24-36+”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 On 7/6/2022 at 5:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said: just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58! 1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again 57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering Expand 2009-2010, too. Its 2023-2024....my guess a moderate modoki el nino with above average snow from VA through ME. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 On 7/7/2022 at 12:09 AM, CoastalWx said: Booby lows probably not due to Nina. Hell sometimes getting a coastal In Nina is tough, so chalk it up to nuances in the flow. Expand The lack of activity in December was due to the compressed flow the big negative anomaly out west, and the transient neg NAO node later in the month. I think the imperfect phases later in the season were cyclogenesis defects that are prominent in the absence of high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 On 7/7/2022 at 12:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2009-2010, too. Its 2023-2024....my guess a moderate modoki el nino with above average snow from VA through ME. Expand i was thinking of including 2009-10, but the only issue with that in my mind was that there were only two -ENSO years with an immediate flip to a moderate +ENSO... looks like we're getting a gradual transition to a cold neutral instead since there was a strong -ENSO event in 07-08 it wouldn't be the worst analog, but it's out of my set for now. definitely not out of the question, though the next +ENSO event we'll get should be Modoki, and given past winters, it should be a really good one for almost all on the EC. exciting stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 On 7/7/2022 at 5:21 PM, brooklynwx99 said: i was thinking of including 2009-10, but the only issue with that in my mind was that there were only two -ENSO years with an immediate flip to a moderate +ENSO... looks like we're getting a gradual transition to a cold neutral instead since there was a strong -ENSO event in 07-08 it wouldn't be the worst analog, but it's out of my set for now. definitely not out of the question, though the next +ENSO event we'll get should be Modoki, and given past winters, it should be a really good one for almost all on the EC. exciting stuff Expand Yea, we aren't getting that kind of drastic flip....also true that it was "only" a double dip la nina, but that is certainly not prohibitive of a similar type of modoki el nino for the 2023-2024 winter season. I don't expect it to remain a weak el nino because we haven't had a significant warm ENSO event since the 2015-2016 super el nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 CFS albeit at a long lead so caveats obviously apply is decent for the winter of 2022-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 Unfortunately we have a strong +QBO coming. With La Nina, even weak, that's a really strong 10mb vortex, normally. The last 2 times we have kind of cheated a little at the surface even 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 On 7/6/2022 at 5:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said: just wait until we exit the triple -ENSO... I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that either the 2023-24 or 2024-25 winter will be a big one as +ENSO returns a few winters that were either one or two years after three consecutive -ENSO years (which usually saw at least one moderate/strong -ENSO early on) are: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1977/78, and 1957/58! 1986/87 is also in there. this was a big MA winter, and I would take that pattern again 57/58 wasn't prolific for Boston, but I would again take my chances with this pattern near you guys 100% of the time. it was definitely more of a NYC/MA winter verbatim not a big sample size given the lack of triple -ENSOs, but it's a pretty good sign that we could see a big boy soon. just gotta be a bit patient for this winter, I'm probably leaning near or slightly below average snowfall. nothing looks particularly promising w/ -ENSO conditions lingering Expand 57-58 was actually pretty epic in interior New England as well, just not on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now