BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Lol. Buffalo determined to not let any of the other cities in NY state get anywhere close to its total for this stupid season. Springville 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Even the LES looks super anemic. I’m done. Where’s the exit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 I'm rocking with the GFS, gives me almost 6" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Even the LES looks super anemic. I’m done. Where’s the exit? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 The issue with this event as usual is timing lol Guidance flips us to snow around 12-1 am on Sunday, NWS only has 1/2"-1" overnight.. While it might snow most of Sunday it's also looking like light precipitation rates which don't bode well for accumulation, even with temps below freezing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: We got a jumper! So late to the party... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Mid 20s on Monday is impressive for this time of year, obviously lol Actually all 3 days are quite a bit below average.. Sunday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 On the other hand today is looking like a winner, mid-upper 50s forecasted..Windows open activated lol Temp up to 45°.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 GFS has been fairly consistent bringing another trough through in the first week of April..It wouldn't equate to much wintry but it would keep us on the cooler side with upper 30s/lower40s type weather.. Actually the GFS doesn't really have many warm days, one here or there lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 Almost every model has 4-8" across Erie County at 1:10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: On the other hand today is looking like a winner, mid-upper 50s forecasted..Windows open activated lol Temp up to 45°.. 57 at BUF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 57 at BUF Only officially at 50 at KSYR last hour. We are being outsizzled. This must not stand! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Saturday night into Sunday, cooling will continue as winds shift northwest between high over northern Plains and low pressure off New England. H85 temps will drop steadily with readings centered around -15c Sunday afternoon. Given the cold air aloft with increasing open water off both lakes, expect widespread snow showers with lake enhanced snow across higher terrain east of Lake Erie and for areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Several inches of snow could result and right now it is looking like we`ll need a late season winter weather advisory for parts of the area. Eventually, expect the lake enhanced snow to transition to diurnally driven snow showers in the afternoon as the core of the coldest air aloft and associated steeper lapse rates approaches the Lower Lakes. Moving into Sunday night the cold cyclonic northwesterly flow will continue across the Lower Lakes with scattered snow showers across the region. Blended pops, including the NBM, looked way too low in this type of setup given plenty of moisture across the lower Great Lakes and sufficient over-water instability so adjusted these upward as as result. It should be one of the coldest nights of this period with lows found in the single digits east of Lake Ontario to teens elsewhere by daybreak Monday as the flow across the lakes results in at least some (relative) moderation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The axis of a negative tilt, longwave trough will lie across the eastern Great Lakes this period, pushing an airmass that is more typical for January than late March across our region. Model 850 hPa temperatures at 12Z Monday are near or even colder than the coldest 850 hPa temperature sampled by KBUF balloon radiosonde for the date...or even the late March 850 hPa average minimum temperature. Thus will expect mid-January type weather with lake effect snow down wind of the lakes on a northwest wind quickly becoming cellular and diminishing with the higher March sun angle through the day. Temperatures will be cold, with highs only in the 20s. Monday night a clearing sky and for some a fresh snowpack will allow for a cooling airmass to drop down into the single digits inland to teens near the Lakes. A few spots across the Tug Hill may even drop below zero Fahrenheit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Saturday night into Sunday, cooling will continue as winds shift northwest between high over northern Plains and low pressure off New England. H85 temps will drop steadily with readings centered around -15c Sunday afternoon. Given the cold air aloft with increasing open water off both lakes, expect widespread snow showers with lake enhanced snow across higher terrain east of Lake Erie and for areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Several inches of snow could result and right now it is looking like we`ll need a late season winter weather advisory for parts of the area. Eventually, expect the lake enhanced snow to transition to diurnally driven snow showers in the afternoon as the core of the coldest air aloft and associated steeper lapse rates approaches the Lower Lakes. Moving into Sunday night the cold cyclonic northwesterly flow will continue across the Lower Lakes with scattered snow showers across the region. Blended pops, including the NBM, looked way too low in this type of setup given plenty of moisture across the lower Great Lakes and sufficient over-water instability so adjusted these upward as as result. It should be one of the coldest nights of this period with lows found in the single digits east of Lake Ontario to teens elsewhere by daybreak Monday as the flow across the lakes results in at least some (relative) moderation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The axis of a negative tilt, longwave trough will lie across the eastern Great Lakes this period, pushing an airmass that is more typical for January than late March across our region. Model 850 hPa temperatures at 12Z Monday are near or even colder than the coldest 850 hPa temperature sampled by KBUF balloon radiosonde for the date...or even the late March 850 hPa average minimum temperature. Thus will expect mid-January type weather with lake effect snow down wind of the lakes on a northwest wind quickly becoming cellular and diminishing with the higher March sun angle through the day. Temperatures will be cold, with highs only in the 20s. Monday night a clearing sky and for some a fresh snowpack will allow for a cooling airmass to drop down into the single digits inland to teens near the Lakes. A few spots across the Tug Hill may even drop below zero Fahrenheit. Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Euro has 850mb anomalies between -17c to -19c below average Monday morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 v 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Hopefully we see the high end. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Nam looks solid in its somewhat LR..If half this accumulated I'd be happy.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 RGEM went crazy across southern Erie, most likely confined to higher elevations, but its easily going to be cold enough for all snow in lower elevations. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 3k only out to Sunday morning already has 6"-12" for some of the higher elevations, few inches here verbatim.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 On 3/22/2022 at 11:09 AM, winter_rules said: You can’t beat that kind of advertising! “I was driving down the road when my truck and I got tossed around by a tornado. Almost made me late to dinner!” https://www.yahoo.com/news/shocked-thank-god-16-old-190230265.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Lol...more of the same garbage we have had for the past three winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 3 hours ago, Buckeyes_Suck said: https://www.yahoo.com/news/shocked-thank-god-16-old-190230265.html Could be a great opportunity for Chevy to offer him a replacement truck, or cover repairs, or something like that. That video really was a legitimate advertisement for them. He said the right things to make you want to route for him (job interview, taking care of it). As an upstate NY vehicle owner, I can’t help but be jealous of the condition of his +/-20yr old truck. Trucks of that era are now badly rusted out up here. My 2015 pickup already has the blisters on the box side. I had it undercoated (oil style, not paint style) when I bought it in 2020, but it was too late for those notorious areas. Photo of the truck in the article below: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/north-texas-chevy-dealer-gifts-teen-caught-in-tornado-new-truck/2923922/?amp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Could be a great opportunity for Chevy to offer him a replacement truck, or cover repairs, or something like that. That video really was a legitimate advertisement for them. He said the right things to make you want to route for him (job interview, taking care of it). As an upstate NY vehicle owner, I can’t help but be jealous of the condition of his +/-20yr old truck. Trucks of that era are now badly rusted out up here. My 2015 pickup already has the blisters on the box side. I had it undercoated (oil style, not paint style) when I bought it in 2020, but it was too late for those notorious areas. Photo of the truck in the article below: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/north-texas-chevy-dealer-gifts-teen-caught-in-tornado-new-truck/2923922/?amp The video says a north Texas Chevy dealer is giving him a brand new 2022 Silverado. I’m always a bit surprised when they say the average age of a vehicle in this country is something like 11 years. That means there’s a lot older than 11 years. Around here any vehicle more than 10 years old shows it’s age and I think there are more newer vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The video says a north Texas Chevy dealer is giving him a brand new 2022 Silverado. I’m always a bit surprised when they say the average age of a vehicle in this country is something like 11 years. That means there’s a lot older than 11 years. Around here any vehicle more than 10 years old shows it’s age and I think there are more newer vehicles. I’ll be driving my 2008 Honda in 2035 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I’ll be driving my 2008 Honda in 2035 Hondas last forever. I had 2 Civics, one got creamed by a truck with 117K and still had the original brakes. The other had 183K and could have reached 250K. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Hondas last forever. I had 2 Civics, one got creamed by a truck with 117K and still had the original brakes. The other had 183K and could have reached 250K. Yeah I'm not a big car guy. As long as they run and no issues I try to keep them as long as possible. All cars are the same to me, point a to point b. I have zero interest in ever getting a Lambo. A bunch of my friends are really into cars, just doesn't do it for me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Civic owner here They are so much nicer now. My Civics were a 2002 and a 2007 and were pretty basic cars. I was driving 36,000 miles a year while I was working and wanted an inexpensive, reliable, good gas mileage car and the Civic checked all those boxes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Latest map from the NWS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: They are so much nicer now. My Civics were a 2002 and a 2007 and were pretty basic cars. I was driving 36,000 miles a year while I was working and wanted an inexpensive, reliable, good gas mileage car and the Civic checked all those boxes. Big fan of Toyota, Honda, Mazda, and Subaru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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