wolfie09 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Kbgm The long term is looking unsettled and cold. 850 mb temperatures likely stay below freezing with temps as low as -18C late Sunday into Monday so highs will struggle to get to near freezing Sunday and Monday. 500 mb height anomaly means in the NAEFS area already 2 sigma below climatology but there is still some spread in the ensembles on where the coldest pocket of air will be so left temps to the NBM rather than lowering the temperatures closer to the 25 percentile for the late weekend into early next week. Also with the longer days and higher sun angle it is starting to get difficult to get temperatures to stay in the low to mid 20s during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a shallow cloud depths with the cold air and thus likely breaks of sun allowing some heating and temperatures likely slightly warmer than what models are showing for Sunday and Monday afternoons. Lake effect snow is also a concern with the ice cover mostly gone with the recent warmth and the lake temperatures up ever so slightly so chances of precipitation were raised to a chance from Saturday afternoon into Monday morning. Wind direction and band organization is uncertain at this time though some accumulating snow is likely somewhere across the Finger Lakes region into northern CNY. A slow warming trend begins mid next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: April 20th of last year That was an interesting couple weeks of weather. End of March had some good thunderstorms and a high wind event. Early April we had a really interesting fog event then that heat wave. Was going through my pictures and actually had the kids outside playing with the sprinkler on an 82degree early April day. Lake Erie got up to the mid 40s by mid April and then bam had the 5” of snow on 4/20. Don’t really care if we’re in for miserable weather just give me something fun to observe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 On 3/21/2022 at 5:10 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Lakes open for business. One of the cranes was out tinkering with the boom today. Maybe they will take advantage of the easterly winds tomorrow pushing the ice away from the boom to start removing it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Wow… incredible view. Right through downtown New Orleans. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Wow… incredible view. Right through downtown New Orleans. Whoa! I really wish there was a "wow" emoji on here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Lot of energy pinwheeling thru this weekend. I won’t be surprised if we see some fantasy solutions. I, for one, will be staying grounded and discount almost all accumulation maps for the lower elevations. Where was this a month ago? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 23, 2022 Author Share Posted March 23, 2022 Incredible tornado new New Orleans tonight can hear the roar. I would be running after that thing. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 23, 2022 Author Share Posted March 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 23, 2022 Author Share Posted March 23, 2022 That is some incredible cold coming Sat/Sun for this time of the year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 0 GFS was much improved for N/C NY Saturday into Sunday, at least for this run lol Not as good for the Dacks/tug but better for the lowlanders.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Good thing the only things that have bloomed are the crocuses and early Spring flowers. Mighty cold air on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Good thing the only things that have bloomed are the crocuses and early Spring flowers. Mighty cold air on the way! Just when the ice had melted off the pool cover. Sigh. Fortunately there will be little snowfall accumulation here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: As I typed, it's like an angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other. Buffalowx on one shoulder saying, "Don't do it! Stay away!" and Blue Moon on the other saying, "Type! type! You know you waaaaant to!" I gave that place up for Lent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Only 12 to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Spring looking more wintry than winter again. The seasons continue their shifting of being one month off from where they used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Best chance at little accumulation looks to be early Sunday morning.. This is also more of a "lake enhancement" regime so it's hard to trust the globals or any model really lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Best chance at little accumulation looks to be early Sunday morning.. This is also more of a "lake enhancement" regime so it's hard to trust the globals or any model really lol Ggem 12z was solid as well, starts out with some westerly enhancement veering northwesterly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 It's 44° here with some drizzle but I've also heard a few pellets and maybe even seen a stray flake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: It's 44° here with some drizzle but I've also heard a few pellets and maybe even seen a stray flake lol Same temp here. It's definitely a chilly, raw, damp day with a blustery wind outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 A more potent shortwave crossing our region Saturday will bring an even cooler airmass for Saturday Night, with temperatures at 850 hPa dropping down towards the negative teens Celsius by periods end. While a mix of rain and snow is possible Saturday evening, this cooler airmass will promote snow showers across our region, with lake effect snow by late Saturday Night. Several inches of snow, especially across SW NYS remains possible by late Saturday Night. Cyclonic flow in an anomalously deep upper level trough will be over the Northeast Sunday. A cold front will usher in cold air across the eastern Great Lakes leading to much below normal temperatures for the start of next week. Some guidance, as low as - 20C at 850mb by Monday morning will most likely fuel lake effect snow showers across the eastern Great Lakes with concentration southeast of the Lakes. Accumulating snow is possible Sunday through Monday morning. The core of the cold air will move east as the trough becomes negatively tilted off the New England coast. Snow showers will taper off Monday and a slow warming trend will occur into early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Ping ping drip drip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Rgem already starting to do what the rgem does lol Nam not as impressive looking in it's LR but never is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Nothing worse than these damp, cloudy spring day's, and these last few cold springs suck. So ready for warmer and sunny weather. My yard is a disaster and needs cleaning up bad but yard is a swamp lol. This weekend is gonna be horrible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Revracer800 said: Nothing worse than these damp, cloudy spring day's, and these last few cold springs suck. So ready for warmer and sunny weather. My yard is a disaster and needs cleaning up bad but yard is a swamp lol. This weekend is gonna be horrible. Yep. It’s the worst. This is the problem with snowless Marches. I guess my expectations were overly influenced by the few snowy Marches we’ve had. This is, unfortunately, more typical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Some convection has developed, quite a bit of lightning off in the distance and loud thunder, windy AF too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 5 hours ago, Revracer800 said: Nothing worse than these damp, cloudy spring day's, and these last few cold springs suck. So ready for warmer and sunny weather. My yard is a disaster and needs cleaning up bad but yard is a swamp lol. This weekend is gonna be horrible. Seriously...just get rid of the grass and go for waterfront property... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Seriously...just get rid of the grass and go for waterfront property... Might be a good idea haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 RGEM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 24, 2022 Share Posted March 24, 2022 Lol. Buffalo determined to not let any of the other cities in NY state get anywhere close to its total for this stupid season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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