BuffaloWeather Posted August 1, 2022 Author Share Posted August 1, 2022 JUNE TEMPS BUF: -0.2 ROC: -0.2 WAT: 0.0 SYR: -1.1 BING: -0.8 JULY TEMPS BUF: +0.7 ROC: -0.2 WAT: +0.8 SYR: +2.3 BING: +1.5 Average Summer Temps so far: BUF: +0.5 ROC: -0.4 WAT: +0.8 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.7 So far this summer looks pretty close to normal. We will see what August brings but everyone is above normal besides KROC with their suspect instrument as everyone else in NYS is above for June/July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 1, 2022 Author Share Posted August 1, 2022 Pretty drastic shift in the long range models. Now with a massive ridge out west and general troughing out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 1, 2022 Author Share Posted August 1, 2022 I'll be in Alaska for 10 days starting next week, pretty good shot of some August snow for the 2nd year in a row for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 1, 2022 Author Share Posted August 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: JUNE TEMPS BUF: -0.2 ROC: -0.2 WAT: 0.0 SYR: -1.1 BING: -0.8 JULY TEMPS BUF: +0.7 ROC: -0.2 WAT: +0.8 SYR: +2.3 BING: +1.5 Average Summer Temps so far: BUF: +0.5 ROC: -0.4 WAT: +0.8 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.7 So far this summer looks pretty close to normal. We will see what August brings but everyone is above normal besides KROC with their suspect instrument as everyone else in NYS is above for June/July. I'd argue that, in light of the new normal, it's really a below average summer. It's 33rd out of 149 years overall, so easily in the top quartile for warmest June 1 to July 31st periods. However, since 2010, only four years have been cooler at BUF - 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2017. Seven have been warmer - 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021, and one (2019) has been the same. Since 2005, a similar story, with only 6 cooler years (2007, 2009, and the four listed above) versus 10 warmer and one equal year. And 2007 was only a tenth of a degree cooler than this year for the same period. Only 2009 had a mean temperature in the bottom half of all years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 2, 2022 Author Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: I'd argue that, in light of the new normal, it's really a below average summer. It's 33rd out of 149 years overall, so easily in the top quartile for warmest June 1 to July 31st periods. However, since 2010, only four years have been cooler at BUF - 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2017. Seven have been warmer - 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021, and one (2019) has been the same. Since 2005, a similar story, with only 6 cooler years (2007, 2009, and the four listed above) versus 10 warmer and one equal year. And 2007 was only a tenth of a degree cooler than this year for the same period. Only 2009 had a mean temperature in the bottom half of all years. Great data! Where abouts are you located at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Hey guys! Won't be long before I return to Oswego. I've spent the summer months in TN and it's been hot as you can imagine. How's the summer treating you guys? A lot of 80+ degree day's and a little rain here and there around the Oswego area. I live 10 minutes south of Oswego. Gonna be close to 90 Wednesday and possible 95 Thursday around the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 14 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Hey guys! Won't be long before I return to Oswego. I've spent the summer months in TN and it's been hot as you can imagine. How's the summer treating you guys? IMO, it's been the best Spring/Summer we've had in a long time. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 3 hours ago, vortmax said: IMO, it's been the best Spring/Summer we've had in a long time. Right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Hoping to see some nighttime elevated convection with the passage of the warm front. KBUF doesn't seem too impressed. It will be very muggy tonight as a well established southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front advects in lower 70s dewpoints across our region. Temps will remain very warm with lows in the low to mid 70s, warmest Niagara Frontier to St. Lawrence River valley. Convection chances tonight are dependent on upstream trends. Not very confident in any one solution based on how models have performed since last night. In general the models were too far north and west with convection last night and are similar today. With that in mind and since warm front will be north of here allowing for ample elevated instability to settle across along with a low-level jet in place, made sure to have at least chance pops this evening over western NY and northern North Country, then blended this with going forecast chancy pops over from western NY to North Country later tonight. Better chances for storms tonight *likely* will remain just north of our area across southern Ontario and southern Quebec along advancing warm front and where stronger temp/moisture advection are present. It will be a nowcasting type of scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 4, 2022 Author Share Posted August 4, 2022 first look at winter, not terrible. Reminds me of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: first look at winter, not terrible. Reminds me of last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 4, 2022 Author Share Posted August 4, 2022 I'll be in Alaska next week, looks like snow in the forecast while I'm there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 4, 2022 Author Share Posted August 4, 2022 All the long range models show December as the below average month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: All the long range models show December as the below average month. Well if there is any month to be below average I hope it's December lol Tired of these slow start winters..Hard to catch up with minimal snow through December... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 4, 2022 Author Share Posted August 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well if there is any month to be below average I hope it's December lol Tired of these slow start winters..Hard to catch up with minimal snow through December... 10000% December is by far my favorite winter month. If I could lock in 4 weeks of below normal temps in December with warm lakes it would basically guarantee us a decent winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well if there is any month to be below average I hope it's December lol Tired of these slow start winters..Hard to catch up with minimal snow through December... Average highs in December are also still mild enough that "above average temps" more commonly can lead to rain... Whereas "above average" in January can still bring good chances of snow. Though, the above average Januarys of late haven't done so well in leading to snowy conditions. Below average temps in December can really work with those warmer lake temps to produce the good snows too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 Obviously this doesn't have 100% data and a normal wind direction is out of the west.. But you can see especially overnight W/WSW rules the day in Dec.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 You can see as we head farther into winter the flow starts to turn more NW/Wnw Especially during the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 4, 2022 Author Share Posted August 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Average highs in December are also still mild enough that "above average temps" more commonly can lead to rain... Whereas "above average" in January can still bring good chances of snow. Though, the above average Januarys of late haven't done so well in leading to snowy conditions. Below average temps in December can really work with those warmer lake temps to produce the good snows too. I'd say the majority of our largest LES events occur in December. Just need another one of these for @TugHillMatt https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'd say the majority of our largest LES events occur in December. Just need another one of these for @TugHillMatt https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C Yep, I have been reading up on that one during these dog days of summer! It's been a while, but apparently Syracuse CAN get some good 3 to 5 foot lake events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 4, 2022 Author Share Posted August 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yep, I have been reading up on that one during these dog days of summer! It's been a while, but apparently Syracuse CAN get some good 3 to 5 foot lake events! There are quite a few good ones. December is usually WNY best month for lake effect as usually lake erie starts freezing the 2nd half of January in a "normal" winter. We live in a new normal where the lake doesn't really freeze anymore though. Obviously Ontario is good all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 While it can happen it's also extremely rare, even for the lower elevations of Oswego... Usually comes more from lake enhancement behind a retro low..Hard to get those numbers with pure lake effect.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There are quite a few good ones. December is usually WNY best month for lake effect as usually lake erie starts freezing the 2nd half of January in a "normal" winter. We live in a new normal where the lake doesn't really freeze anymore though. Obviously Ontario is good all winter. If it continues, Buffalo averages will certainly surpass Syracuse. For Syracuse to get those greater amounts, it seems we need the low pressures off the East Coast to sweep moist, cold air over the lake. Those lows and the cold have been lacking. With going into a more neutral winter, it will be interesting to see if the "new normal" continues. It will be somewhat telling if we still can't break 100 inches of snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 4, 2022 Author Share Posted August 4, 2022 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: If it continues, Buffalo averages will certainly surpass Syracuse. For Syracuse to get those greater amounts, it seems we need the low pressures off the East Coast to sweep moist, cold air over the lake. Those lows and the cold have been lacking. With going into a more neutral winter, it will be interesting to see if the "new normal" continues. It will be somewhat telling if we still can't break 100 inches of snow here. I don't see that happening. BUFs 30 yr average is 30" behind SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Average highs in December are also still mild enough that "above average temps" more commonly can lead to rain... Whereas "above average" in January can still bring good chances of snow. Though, the above average Januarys of late haven't done so well in leading to snowy conditions. Below average temps in December can really work with those warmer lake temps to produce the good snows too. Average highs for December 24/25 are around 55F in recent memory. Usually with a touch of drizzle thrown in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1 hour ago, cny rider said: Average highs for December 24/25 are around 55F in recent memory. Usually with a touch of drizzle thrown in. Ha! For real... More snow on Easter than Christmas lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 5, 2022 Author Share Posted August 5, 2022 9 hours ago, wolfie09 said: While it can happen it's also extremely rare, even for the lower elevations of Oswego... Usually comes more from lake enhancement behind a retro low..Hard to get those numbers with pure lake effect.. What a great event. The end of that loop featured only LES and had by far the strongest band across syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 5, 2022 Author Share Posted August 5, 2022 Couple videos from the storms the other night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 5, 2022 Author Share Posted August 5, 2022 Its coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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