brentrich Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Soon it's not in fantasy land anymore. It's coming. Now we need this storm to trend 1000 miles east and we are in jackpot of 4 feet of snow. Storm of the century? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: No problems getting precipitation now from a coastal system Where was this ALLLLL winter?!?!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Where was this ALLLLL winter?!?!? It was there all winter, didn't you see the rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Here comes some more heavy rain, a little more than 3/4" liquid on the day.. 6pm update and it continues to pour, nearing 1.50" of rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 7, 2022 Author Share Posted April 7, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: 6pm update and it continues to pour, nearing 1.50" of rain.. Muddy paw season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 Back and forth we go lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It was there all winter, didn't you see the rain? Lol...we only get heavy training precipitation when it's rain. During the winter if it's below freezing, the precipitation falls off the hills from the south and vanishes. Three winters in a row. But next winter will be better................. Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 8, 2022 Author Share Posted April 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol...we only get heavy training precipitation when it's rain. During the winter if it's below freezing, the precipitation falls off the hills from the south and vanishes. Three winters in a row. But next winter will be better................. Right? If you believe in the law of averages yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol...we only get heavy training precipitation when it's rain. During the winter if it's below freezing, the precipitation falls off the hills from the south and vanishes. Three winters in a row. But next winter will be better................. Right? It better be or I will relocate to Redfield 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol...we only get heavy training precipitation when it's rain. During the winter if it's below freezing, the precipitation falls off the hills from the south and vanishes. Three winters in a row. But next winter will be better................. Right? I don't believe in voodoo crap but this is all on you, no other explanation. Cuse is top dog every year, never see consecutive crappy winters, let alone multiple consecutive ultra crappy winters. The snow bust is purely on your shoulders. Just wonky... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Thought this was an interesting graphic. Most of the deep interior NE actually ran a colder max low on this data set, with the exception of that little nub SE of Lake Ontario. Warmth pumping back up the Mohawk Valley? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 How low is this area supposed to get? Lol Pulaski max low was -20.. That's most likely computer generated, I don't even know where they are getting the temps to compare..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Actually January had an average low of 1.6° which is 9.4° below average and one of the lowest on record..Feb 2015 for example had an average low of 1°F.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 I also feel like this year was more bad luck compared to warmth..Jan and February both were below average in temps and snowfall, not just little either, quite a bit lol At least according to the COOP.. November was another month right around average for temp and below average for snow, usually this wouldn't be the case.. Obviously December and March were blah.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 2 hours ago, sferic said: It better be or I will relocate to Redfield Going for a 4th house in New York state? We'll have to spend the winter snowfall chasing via the "Tour de Feric" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I don't believe in voodoo crap but this is all on you, no other explanation. Cuse is top dog every year, never see consecutive crappy winters, let alone multiple consecutive ultra crappy winters. The snow bust is purely on your shoulders. Just wonky... Lol... I don't believe in voodoo, but I still warned you guys... lol... Just awful ... Ma Nature hates me. It's like she is going through a bitter divorce with Syracuse and me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Going for a 4th house in New York state? We'll have to spend the winter snowfall chasing via the "Tour de Feric" It would be a cabin, bare basics just to ride out the best parts of winter when necessary can't afford more, I'm on a pension after taking early retirement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Tomorrow getting a little interesting. Possible paste job for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 11 hours ago, wolfie09 said: How low is this area supposed to get? Lol Pulaski max low was -20.. That's most likely computer generated, I don't even know where they are getting the temps to compare..lol Yeah, Idk. I got down to -16° and they're saying that's 0-2° higher than average lowest min. Seems suspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 I finished with a little over 2" of rain since late Wednesday evening, finally drying out today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 1.31 inches since 8:00 yesterday morning. My backyard had standing water which has since soaked into the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 For the long term period, it will be warm, but continue to be active. Day to day warming is expected from Tuesday through Thursday as a ridge tracks across the region. There is still some timing difference between model guidance for the ridge crossing the region, followed by the next trough with cooler temps. Max temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low 60s to near 70 for areas south of Lake Ontario, and in the mid 50s to near 60 for areas east of Lake Ontario. Max temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s south of Lake Ontario, and in the low to mid 60s east of Lake Ontario; temperatures for Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, but within the range described above. Timing will be important with the temperatures, as guidance is still spread with a frontal passage on Thursday. With a slower solution, delaying the cold front, temperatures will need to be bumped up for Thursday. Precipitation wise, Tuesday should be mostly dry. A warm front associated with an area of low pressure will track northeast across the region early Wednesday. This will start a more active period during the long term. Shower potential will increase with the frontal passage and then continue with the western & north central NY region in the warm sector of an area of low pressure over the upper Midwest on Wednesday. The sfc low will start to occlude and track slowly northeast across the northern Great Lakes and into Canada later in the week (still some timing issues with this as well). Within the warm sector, over the region from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, shower potential will continue, with some thunderstorms also possible at times. Shower potential will increase drastically with the frontal passage across the area. As mentioned above, timing for this frontal passage ranges from the Thursday afternoon through late Friday morning, so fine tuning the forecast for these time periods will be necessary over the coming days. But overall, the active weather we have had, will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Looks good to me. Wait, that’s Myrtle Beach where I’ll be. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted April 8, 2022 Share Posted April 8, 2022 Well played MXZ. Here's my point and click for the weekend which is utterly craptacular: Tonight A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Increasing clouds, with a low around 34. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. Some thunder is also possible. High near 45. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night Rain showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10pm and midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of rain showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Could be a few late season mood flakes Sunday morning lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Snow showers will move into western NY by midnight and expand eastward across western NY through Sunday morning. Snow showers will then be mostly confined to the upslope regions east of the Lake Erie including the Chautauqua Ridge while snow showers taper off elsewhere across western NY Saturday night. A dusting is possible across this region with snow accumulations of up to 2 inches on the Chautauqua Ridge. Low temperatures will reach the upper 20s to low 30s Saturday night. Snow showers will expand east-southeast of Lake Ontario Sunday morning while mid-level moisture becomes depleted across western NY. Snow intensity will wane east of Lake Erie with snow mixing with rain before showers come to an end Sunday afternoon. Snow showers will be enhanced on the Tug Hill Plateau by upslope processes and up to an inch of snow accumulation possible. Elsewhere, warming temperature during the day will cause snow to mix with rain and no accumulation is expected. Cool Sunday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 13 hours ago, Flying MXZ said: Looks good to me. Wait, that’s Myrtle Beach where I’ll be. Haha! If it was like that forecast for Sunday into Monday ALL Summer, the season would be much more pleasurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Just had a brief sleet/graupel shower here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 I wonder where the boundary is lol Sharp contrast on Wednesday, sizzle sizzle comes to CNY on Thursday as the warm front pushes through..Via the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 9, 2022 Author Share Posted April 9, 2022 I'm friends with Tom Niziol on FB and he posts videos on the daily of weather related content. He has 4-5" of snow today at his residence in Tennessee. crazy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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