DeltaT13 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 2 hours ago, vortmax said: Kind of interesting placement of WNY band just south of the shoreline. Seems a little odd to me. It seems odd because it’s not going to happen. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: One last ridiculous fantasy map for the year. Ugh. Rochester isn’t getting more than an inch or two on the grass at best. The bands tomorrow will be ridiculously cellular and the snow will struggle mightily to accumulate. I am however eyeing cattaraugus county though. Can holiday valley salvage a decent day with a little elevation? They are right on the cusp according to the point and click. I’d make one last run if I knew they could get 6. Most likely elevation based event. Overnight tonight I think we pick up a few inches even here. But Boston Hills/Colden/Perrysburg likely get 8-12". I was thinking about going skiing tomorrow if they pick up 6-10". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 This airmass is extremely impressive. Going to be below freezing from this afternoon until Tuesday. -19 to -23 850s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 @TugHillMatt Springville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 I wouldn't be surprised to see 12"+ at Perrysburg easily. Perfect setup for them, lots of moisture, open lakes, and crazy deltas for this time of year. Going with a 15" total down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @TugHillMatt Springville Don't sleep on my 3% 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 Late this afternoon through Sunday a broad surface low stretching from Quebec to Maine will consolidate and drift east into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. An area of deep wrap around moisture will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday morning, while ongoing cold advection cools the column. Deep saturation and low level flow normal to the Chautauqua Ridge will produce a near ideal setup for strong upslope enhancement across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Forecast soundings show a deep 5-7K foot thick dendritic growth zone tonight through Sunday morning. The airmass will grow cold enough for lake enhancement as well from late tonight through Sunday. The same will occur east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill, although flow will veer more WNW by Sunday, with less favorable lake enhancement following the initial development tonight. Outside of the main upslope areas east of the lakes, expect periods of snow tonight through Sunday and possibly a few meandering bands of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay lake effect to produce minor accumulations. As far as accumulations go, the 00Z high-res guidance that handles smaller scale upslope better than global guidance, continued an upward trend, and this raises the chances of warning criteria being reached for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Expect total accumulations in the 8-14" range along a narrow zone of the Chautauqua Ridge from Sherman to Perrysburg, and 7-12" across the Boston Hills and the ridges of western Wyoming County. There will be far less snow along the Lake Erie shore (including the Thruway), and steadily decreasing snow inland from the Chautauqua Ridge. East of Lake Ontario, expect 6-10" across the Tug Hill tonight through Sunday. The setup is not quite as favorable here, so we have opted for a higher end Advisory for the Tug Hill, although a small area of warning criteria snow is possible near the Oswego/Jefferson/Lewis County triple point. Outside of these two areas, expect accumulations of 2-4" tonight through Sunday in most areas. The one caveat, if a Lake Huron band were to stall over the Niagara Frontier or south of Lake Ontario higher amounts are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Rgem has a little bit of a different look compared to previous runs.. Clearly the NWS is humping it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: It seems odd because it’s not going to happen. Lol It’s so ridiculous. When will they learn?!? I totally agree with your sentiments above- we’ll be lucky to get an inch or two in the grass. I was at Holiday Valley last Friday and it was getting very thin. Are they even open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: It’s so ridiculous. When will they learn?!? I totally agree with your sentiments above- we’ll be lucky to get an inch or two in the grass. I was at Holiday Valley last Friday and it was getting very thin. Are they even open? Yeah today is spring fest with pond skimming. Not sure the trail count but obviously greatly reduced. I think it’s shitty they are still charging full price. $93 bucks tomorrow. Ooof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I wouldn't be surprised to see 12"+ at Perrysburg easily. Perfect setup for them, lots of moisture, open lakes, and crazy deltas for this time of year. Going with a 15" total down there. I finally drove down that way. Headed down 219 on my way to Ellicotville. And then headed East out of EV on my way home. Crazy terrain! And super convenient to Buffalo. I’m surprised it’s not more developed. Is it crazy expensive? Beautiful land marred by horrible trailer trash attitudes. Junk abounds outside of most of the residences. All Trump voters who look down on urban blight. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah today is spring fest with pond skimming. Not sure the trail count but obviously greatly reduced. I think it’s shitty they are still charging full price. $93 bucks tomorrow. Ooof Prices are out of hand. I had access to a free ticket last week. I’ll check if I can still get it. Sugarbush was 195.00/day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: It seems odd because it’s not going to happen. Lol It's gonna happen with 850s 2 to 3 SD below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 45 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I finally drove down that way. Headed down 219 on my way to Ellicotville. And then headed East out of EV on my way home. Crazy terrain! And super convenient to Buffalo. I’m surprised it’s not more developed. Is it crazy expensive? Beautiful land marred by horrible trailer trash attitudes. Junk abounds outside of most of the residences. All Trump voters who look down on urban blight. Lol. I'm not sure why its not developed. Its more developed west of Ellicottville vs east. There isn't much east besides maybe Utica. The west locations of Ellicottville are where the best snow is along the ridges. From Perrysburg to Boston to Springville and points just south. Case in point look at map below, all that purple is above 1k feet elevation, most above 1500. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 48 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah today is spring fest with pond skimming. Not sure the trail count but obviously greatly reduced. I think it’s shitty they are still charging full price. $93 bucks tomorrow. Ooof Unless a foot of fresh powder $93 is way too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 I did check. They gave the extra ticket away last Sunday. Best of luck. I wouldn’t be surprised if you could find one in the lot? People often get 8 packs, or similar, and realize they can’t use them all. I’d ask around. Even though I have plenty of money, I try and get bargains on principle alone. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 NWS has Roc getting 4” as ‘expected’. My P+C for Pittsford is 3-8”. I can’t stress enough what a horrible set up this is for Rochester. High winds. Cellular/ diurnal nature of the squalls. Marginal temps. Trajectory isn’t even good. I’m expecting the big goose egg. Zip. Agree with Buf. Springville will win this easy. Buffalo, IAG, Syracuse all will get nada. Nuisance crap. Fun to watch . Oh, and my normal caveat- I’m terrible at this. Chances are better than average that I’ll be wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 26, 2022 Author Share Posted March 26, 2022 Great post from Tom niziol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Blue Moon said: Anything more than 2" in OSW will surprise me. I wouldn't be surprised if I got mostly graupel. Sizzling here near Cuse. 47 degrees. Expecting some rain and then brief ground whitenings tonight and tomorrow. Should get that 1/2" to climb over last season's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I finally drove down that way. Headed down 219 on my way to Ellicotville. And then headed East out of EV on my way home. Crazy terrain! And super convenient to Buffalo. I’m surprised it’s not more developed. Is it crazy expensive? Beautiful land marred by horrible trailer trash attitudes. Junk abounds outside of most of the residences. All Trump voters who look down on urban blight. Lol. It's not expensive in Cattaraugus County. I assume it's because of the terrain that it's not more developed, and even driving around there in summer can be hair raising, I'm not nearly brave enough to try there in winter. I'm excited for my yearly summer trip through Amish country in Chautauqua... Cherry Creek to Clymer. Beautiful area and a way of living I admire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Leelee said: It's not expensive in Cattaraugus County. I assume it's because of the terrain that it's not more developed, and even driving around there in summer can be hair raising, I'm not nearly brave enough to try there in winter. I'm excited for my yearly summer trip through Amish country in Chautauqua... Cherry Creek to Clymer. Beautiful area and a way of living I admire. I saw a lot of Amish driving in their buggies. Apparently LED lights are permissible. You gotta get some snow tires bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 Looks like it’s starting to come down on the ridge. Any good cams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 Shocker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 It’s unbelievable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 Looks like it's now snowing in Rochester via the Jines webcam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2022 Author Share Posted March 27, 2022 Dumping on the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2022 Author Share Posted March 27, 2022 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I saw a lot of Amish driving in their buggies. Apparently LED lights are permissible. You gotta get some snow tires bro Leelee is a she not a bro if I remember correctly. She was a regular poster back on don Pauls blog back in the 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looks like it's now snowing in Rochester via the Jines webcam. Sure is coming down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 https://www.gotsnowcams.com/gotsnowcams.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 27, 2022 Share Posted March 27, 2022 Latest hrrr going hog wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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