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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I'm not a big car guy. As long as they run and no issues I try to keep them as long as possible. All cars are the same to me, point a to point b. I have zero interest in ever getting a Lambo. A bunch of my friends are really into cars, just doesn't do it for me. 

Wouldn’t you like a nice big 4x4 SUV for all your trips in the weather? I love my 4Runner. So capable 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Wouldn’t you like a nice big 4x4 SUV for all your trips in the weather? I love my 4Runner. So capable 

I've never been stuck with my little Mazda. All terrain tires with AWD gets the job done for me. No car payments for 3 yrs, only my cheap mortgage. The rest I save and spend on travel. Allows me freedom to stay in a relatively stress-free job. 

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've never been stuck with my little Mazda. All terrain tires with AWD gets the job done for me. No car payments for 3 yrs, only my cheap mortgage. The rest I save and spend on travel. Allows me freedom to stay in a relatively stress-free job. 

Smart! I still think you’d love it. It’s so nice to have that extra space for stuff and the dog. Gas ain’t no field day tho

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Binghamton

Another shortwave and cold front moves in from the northwest
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This will bring
rain/snow showers Saturday evening, changing to all snow showers
by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Lake effect snow
showers will follow this shortwave with a northwesterly flow and
850mb temperatures falling from around -10C Sunday morning to
around -20C Monday morning. These lake effect snow showers may
start with an organized multi-banded structure, but as is
typical for this time of the year with the strong late March sun
angle, these snow showers may turn more cellular/convective in
nature by Sunday afternoon, therefore limiting the potential for
a prolonged period of lake effect snow in any one particular
location. Instead, snow showers will likely be frequent, but
brief by midday Sunday, with brief periods of sun possible in
between. With the cold airmass moving in, highs on Sunday will
only be in the 30s to near 40.
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Buffalo

Saturday night and Sunday the axis of the mid level trough moves
to the east coast, with a surface low consolidating over eastern
Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. Deep wrap around moisture will
rotate into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday,
while unseasonably cold air pours into the Great Lakes. The synoptic
scale forcing and moisture will support periods of light snow and
snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile, favorable WNW
flow in the boundary layer will support upslope enhancement across
the higher terrain east/southeast of Lake Erie and across the Tug
Hill Plateau. The airmass will grow plenty cold enough for lake
enhancement as well, with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to
over 5K feet by Sunday. The combination of lake enhancement and
upslope flow will support more persistent and somewhat heavier snow
across the higher terrain east of the lakes. This would peak
Saturday night east of Lake Erie, and late Saturday night and Sunday
east of Lake Ontario.

Sunday night the deeper moisture and better synoptic scale support
will move into New England, but northwest flow of very cold air,
with 850MB temps dropping to around -20C, will support ongoing areas
of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes.

As far as accumulations go, the heaviest snow will focus from the
Chautauqua Ridge to the Boston Hills and ridges of Wyoming County
east of Lake Erie, and across the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake
Ontario. Totals may reach 6-10" over 48 hours in these areas.
Elsewhere expect a few inches of accumulation. The snow will add up
over time across the higher terrain, but chances of legitimate
watch/warning criteria snow (7" in 12 hours or 9" in 24 hours) is
low but non-zero.
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7 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Hondas last forever. I had 2 Civics, one got creamed by a truck with 117K and still had the original brakes. The other had 183K and could have reached 250K. 

My daily driver is a 2010 Civic with 139,000 miles.  I like the car, love the gas mileage, but have been disappointed with maintenance/repair needs.  I have had it for 3.5yrs since 60k miles.  I previously had 2 beater Ford Focuses, a beater Chevy Impala, a beater Chevy Malibu and then FINALLY splurged for a Civic….and then have been disappointed with it. 

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Sunday night the deeper moisture and better synoptic scale support
will move into New England, but northwest flow of very cold air,
with 850MB temps dropping to around -20C (which would be as cold as
has been observed this late in the season per SPC sounding
climatology), will support ongoing areas of lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes. Since all lake convective layer will be in
the DGZ, the snow showers could be quite efficient with SLRs topping
20:1. Gusty northwest winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow
so have added this into the forecast closer to the lakes. Snow
showers wane on Monday with diurnal disruption, but could flare up
again on Monday night near the lakes as another weaker wave moves
through with increased moisture above H85 and still more than
sufficient over-water instability.

As far as accumulations go, the heaviest snow is still expected from
the Chautauqua Ridge to the Boston Hills and ridges of Wyoming
County east of Lake Erie, and across the Tug Hill Plateau east of
Lake Ontario. Totals may reach 8-12" over 48 hours in these areas.
Elsewhere expect a few inches of accumulation. Went back and forth
about issuing a watch, but in the end settled on the idea that this
will be long drawn out advisory event. Isolated warning amounts
certainly could occur, but most of the higher terrain areas alluded
are expected to remain less than the 7"/12hr or 9"/24hr threshold.
Bulk of heaviest accumulating snow will also be occurring during the
overnight hours on the weekend, lessening the impact. Will let later
shifts set up headlines as needed since most of snow from this
evening will not occur until Saturday night onward.

 

WPC probabilities

day2_psnow_gt_04_conus (13).gif

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7 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

They are so much nicer now. My Civics were a 2002 and a 2007 and were pretty basic cars. I was driving 36,000 miles a year while I was working and wanted an inexpensive, reliable, good gas mileage car and the Civic checked all those boxes. 

2017 Civic here. 0 option car I bought new. Been great except rotors rusting, and a/c compressor issues-but that one was warrantied.  And I have a truck for the real wintry days. 
 

Hope the snow avoids here. Although the roads were salted the other day for the freezing rain threat. 

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After my 2 Civics I thought I’d try something different so I bought a 2012 Chevy Cruze with a 6 speed manual. It wasn’t quite as reliable as my Civics but it was a nice little cruiser on the thruway from Brewerton to Utica. Last year it was 9 years old with almost 150K miles on it so I decided it was time for a new one. Since retiring I’m only putting about 7K on a year so I decided to splurge and lease a nicer vehicle. I leased a 2021 Mazda CX-5 GTR which I love so far. 

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The Hyundai Santa Fe I owned for 12 years was amazing in the snow. I absolutely loved that car. My Nissan Altima isn't nearly as good in the snow, but that little thing goes around turns like a pro and has great acceleration. It's very easy to accidentally speed in that vehicle. Plus, it can get 37 miles per gallon...filling the tank up once can give over 600 miles on one tank!

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

StormTotalSnow.jpg

One last ridiculous fantasy map for the year. Ugh. Rochester isn’t getting more than an inch or two on the grass at best. The bands tomorrow will be ridiculously cellular and the snow will struggle mightily to accumulate. 

I am however eyeing cattaraugus county though. Can holiday valley salvage a decent day with a little elevation?  They are right on the cusp according to the point and click. I’d make one last run if I knew they could get 6. 

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