TugHillMatt Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 ...and then there were these lies from @BuffaloWeather On 5/7/2020 at 1:28 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah you simply cannot judge a locations winter on 2 seasons. You need decades worth of living here to get a good grasp. Syracuse has had many epic snowstorms in the past, you will see some incredible stuff in the next few years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Rochester airport.. Happens more often than not.. Maybe nothing big but snow is still on table late in the season.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: ...and then there were these lies from @BuffaloWeather On 5/7/2020 at 1:28 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah you simply cannot judge a locations winter on 2 seasons. You need decades worth of living here to get a good grasp. Syracuse has had many epic snowstorms in the past, you will see some incredible stuff in the next few years. I underestimated the curse you’d bring. 3 year sample size is still not nearly enough 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Looks like a little snow up north tonight/tomorrow..We will enjoy some rain lol Later today, weak cold front will settle across southern Ontario, before stalling there into this evening. As that occurs, disturbance over Upper Great Lakes causing narrow west to east oriented ribbon of mainly snow into northern Michigan (depicted well by H925-H7 frontogenesis) slides across northern Lake Ontario to the North Country. Temps just warm enough for a mix east of Lake Ontario to start evening, but then cool enough for only snow late evening and into the overnight. The snow does not last too long though and ends by late tonight. Seems that a few inches of wet snow could occur farther inland east across the North Country before it ends. Not quite enough for an advisory but with temps near freezing, untreated roads could become snow covered and slippery across the North Country late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Mid May 2 years ago in the middle of the day: I remember that well. Soul crushing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 32 minutes ago, cny rider said: I remember that well. Soul crushing. How is that soul crushing, I was so happy. Let's hope it will happen again this year and it would be awesome to see that in late May or early June 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Lost over half of our snowpack today. The March sun shall not be infringed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Looks like GFS won this weekend. Rain it is. Boo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Looks like GFS won this weekend. Rain it is. Boo The new king? Would like to see that model accuracy chart since the GFS upgrade. Seems to be doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Pleasant stretch this week with Thursday looking the warmest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Weekend looking wet and chilly.. There remains high confidence that unsettled weather will impact our region this weekend. Big question that remains is with respect to the strength and exact track of the system. 15/00Z Canadian NH has now moved toward the 15/00Z GFS camp, tracking a somewhat deeper low pressure system just to the west of our area (windier scenario as well), while the 15/00Z ECMWF remains steady keeping the center of this (weaker) system passing just to our southeast. Despite the differences in the exact track of the system, there is strong model consensus for widespread precipitation across our area Friday night through at least part of Saturday night, tapering off from west to east on Sunday. As far as p-type, at this point setup appears plenty warm enough for just plain rain Friday night into Saturday on the front side of the storm. However, as the low moves east of our area, colder air will wrap in on the back side of the system. This may bring a rain changing to snow scenario Saturday night across the higher terrain, with mainly a rain/snow mix across the lower elevations. For Sunday, expect a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain, with primarily liquid across the lower elevations. Air aloft will not grow cold enough for any pure lake effect, but may be just cold enough aloft for some lake enhancement downwind of the Lakes, along with some enhanced precip across our northwesterly flow upslope areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 Looks like Buffalo will win this year GSB Cities The 2021 - 2022 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Buffalo 92.4 86.9 72.1 95.4 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Rochester 82.8 91.4 64.9 102.0 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Syracuse 67.2 116.8 69.0 127.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Binghamton 65.4 75.4 99.9 86.5 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Albany 33.6 52.4 54.1 59.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 But will they accept it? Lol 2018–2019: Buffalo (Refused Award)[1] 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: But will they accept it? Lol 2018–2019: Buffalo (Refused Award)[1] Just looking at their totals and I had 100 more inches than Buffalo airport in 2014-2015 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 20 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Mid May 2 years ago in the middle of the day: Oh how I miss elevation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Another 1-3" across the GTA today to pad the stats. Tomorrow is around 50F and Thursday 60-65F so the snow will be gone fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 34.9 here with light rain. Love it..............not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Need a more SE storm track and we're golden... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 Heres a little clip from my Mt. Marshall hike last weekend. Sorry for the excessive breathing it was really steep. I will be putting together a 20-30 minute video after I complete all 46 later this year. I have clips from all my hikes and all the different people I climbed them with. This part of the trail was broken out, many others were not. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 KBUF calling for a high in low 60s today, 52 and sunny out. Absolutely beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 We are at 40° here under cloudy skies with a forecast high of 52°.. Hrrr warms a little more this afternoon but still falls a little short of forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: We are at 40° here under cloudy skies with a forecast high of 52°.. Hrrr warms a little more this afternoon but still falls a little short of forecast.. Sun came out, jumped 10° in a little more than an hour, now it feels nice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 I wonder if Holiday Valley will even be open this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 We won`t need a lucky shamrock to receive nice weather on Thursday. Our forecast area will find itself in the sweet spot between the aforementioned upper low (that will track by WELL to our south) and an approaching frontal boundary that will stall over southern Ontario. General subsidence between the two systems will support a fair amount of sunshine for St Patrick`s Day...and with decent mixing and H85 temps of 6/7c...max temps away from the lakes should easily make it into at LEAST the low to mid 60s. The true pot of gold though may very well be found in the Genesee valley and some of the valleys of the Southern Tier...where full mixing...a bit of localized downsloping and some four leaf clover luck could be enough to allow for readings in the lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I wonder if Holiday Valley will even be open this weekend? You mean because of the rain? They are having a huge festival there all day with bands so it should be full steam ahead, albeit a soggy day, I almost was going to go, glad I'm not now. Next week is the Spring carnival and I plan to be there for that as long as it isnt raining, you gotta love watching that pond skimming at the bottom of Yodeler. Bristol is still 100 percent open with a 30-50 inch base. I'll be there on Friday for some delightful slushy laps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 So the 18z GFS continued the colder look by months end and doubled down. Rather wintry look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Euro as well, but it was more of LES east of the lakes verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 As of right now CPC going with"near normal" probabilities, could go either way lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: As of right now CPC going with"near normal" probabilities, could go either way lol I would tend to believe in 2 days that outlook will be solid blue over the Great Lakes and North East. Could be pretty cold too as those anomalies on the euro and gfs would have temps in the 30’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Really foggy in Toronto this evening. Almost pea soup fog. Very Dickensian feel outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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