BuffaloWeather Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Figured it out be a good time for a new thread as we enter springtime. It looks like the next 2 weeks will feature warmer than normal temps. Temps for the winter- (Dec-Feb) BUF: +1.77 Dec: +6.8 Jan: -3.6 Feb: +2.1 ROC: -1.1 Dec: +4.7 Jan: -6.7 Feb: -1.3 WAT: -1.2 Dec: +5.3 Jan: -9.1 Feb: +0.2 SYR: +1.77 Dec: +7.6 Jan: -4.6 Feb: +2.3 BING: +0.2 Dec: +6.1 Jan: -4.9 Feb: -0.7 Watertown and Rochester had colder than normal winters, while BUF and SYR had warmer than normal winters. Rochesters winter temp was 3 degrees colder than both Buf and Syr, that's difficult to believe. Binghamton right around average for winter temps. Nice warmup later this week, a chance at some 60s. Looking further ahead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 MEH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 It's not spring yet, models are showing winter is making epic comeback on last week of March into early April for Midwest and NE. We will see at least 1 more snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 That's what Spring is. Ups and downs, with the ups increasing more and more as we head towards May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 The back to back storms this week dumped nearly 20" at kbgm. Up to 65.2 on the season and only 1.2 behind Ksyr. My grade for the winter has risen from D- to a C+ as of now. Another warning level snowfall would probably jump it to either a B- or B, but that looks unlikely at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Wouldn't mind going full blast into Spring at this point, but only if a warm March/April doesn't portend a cold May. What I can stand is it being 50 degrees for 2 straight months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 April is my least favorite month around here as the cool weather hangs around too long. Hoping we go right to 60s and sunshine instead of 40s and rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 Lake Erie also keeps us cool this time of year. =/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 7 hours ago, brentrich said: It's not spring yet, models are showing winter is making epic comeback on last week of March into early April for Midwest and NE. We will see at least 1 more snowstorm. Soon, many snows come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake Erie also keeps us cool this time of year. =/ You can micro it down even more. This was last Sunday when we had our first “nice” day. 15-20 degrees cooler on the lake vs a few miles inland. Need to get a nice jump on the sunny days and above normal temps in April so we can swing right into summer weather by Memorial Day. Just booked a cottage the 2nd week of July in Sherkston so I want Erie nice and toasty early this summer! As much as I enjoy the snowy weather I’ve had my fill. Solid B+ winter. The lake effect season was rather tame for my area, but had some nice synoptic thumps to make up for it. The staying power of the snow pack was incredible this season. Think we still see another small overnight snowfall or two but feel like were done with the real artic cold after this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: April is my least favorite month around here as the cool weather hangs around too long. Hoping we go right to 60s and sunshine instead of 40s and rain. Cold, rainy stretches in April are the worst. We're hitting the time of year where I'm always hoping for above average temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 5 hours ago, Leelee said: Cold, rainy stretches in April are the worst. We're hitting the time of year where I'm always hoping for above average temps. #muddypaws 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Yesterday made me realize how grey and gloomy central NY can be. We went skiing at Plattekill. The clouds lifted out by 11. It was a beautiful bluebird day. The skiing was great too. We got home to central Otsego county. My dark blue Subaru parked in a completely open area was still snow covered, as was our back walkway with direct southern sun exposure. Both had the inch or so that had fallen the night before. It's pretty obvious there was little or no sun here yesterday. If I can't have snow I want sun! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, cny rider said: Yesterday made me realize how grey and gloomy central NY can be. We went skiing at Plattekill. The clouds lifted out by 11. It was a beautiful bluebird day. The skiing was great too. We got home to central Otsego county. My dark blue Subaru parked in a completely open area was still snow covered, as was our back walkway with direct southern sun exposure. Both had the inch or so that had fallen the night before. It's pretty obvious there was little or no sun here yesterday. If I can't have snow I want sun! Kind of agree on the snow or sun, at least by late winter or spring. But have to say, in the dead of winter, cold cloudy days with some lake effect has its appeal. Living near the coast there is usually clearing right after a storm. Kind of nice to have "wintry" weather expanded after a storm, or get dessert snow. Though by mid March...the clouds are not appreciated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, cny rider said: Yesterday made me realize how grey and gloomy central NY can be. We went skiing at Plattekill. The clouds lifted out by 11. It was a beautiful bluebird day. The skiing was great too. We got home to central Otsego county. My dark blue Subaru parked in a completely open area was still snow covered, as was our back walkway with direct southern sun exposure. Both had the inch or so that had fallen the night before. It's pretty obvious there was little or no sun here yesterday. If I can't have snow I want sun! I have been noticing this too. It’s hard to blame essentially all of my friends who no longer live in the area. Less job opportunities and more miserable weather here. There are so many overcast days where it’s not really raining or snowing, but just gloomy. That does take a toll on most people over time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, winter_rules said: I have been noticing this too. It’s hard to blame essentially all of my friends who no longer live in the area. Less job opportunities and more miserable weather here. There are so many overcast days where it’s not really raining or snowing, but just gloomy. That does take a toll on most people over time. Even though I love the snow/winter I suffer a little from SAD. To combat this I go tanning once a week during the mid winter season. Yes I know its bad for me but I feel amazing when I walk out of there in mid winter. Also important to supplement vitamin D. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Even though I love the snow/winter I suffer a little from SAD. To combat this I go tanning once a week during the mid winter season. Yes I know its bad for me but I feel amazing when I walk out of there in mid winter. Also important to supplement vitamin D. Imagine if we hated snow like many (most?) people. I can’t understand why so many people live in upstate NY but hate snow. Thankfully I get excited about snowstorms. For me, it is exciting to track, exciting to watch it snow, and then it leads to long-term outdoor enjoyment following the actual snow event. Now imagine dreading each snowfall and then being confined indoors until it melts. I suppose that is a significant contributing factor to why so much of our upstate NY population is overweight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 EPS are warm entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Last night euro for Saturday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 GFS has a cutter/CF but pounds the tug/dacks on the backside lol Probably wouldn't be much for lower elevations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 There is high confidence that the weather will be very unsettled for the weekend. While there is still a fair amount of spread between the various guidance package solutions...there is strong consensus that a robust southern stream shortwave will impact our region with widespread pcpn Saturday...followed by a colder day Sunday with some snow showers. Its in the details that confidence drops off the table. The main variables keeping uncertainty in the forecast is whether two systems will phase over the Ohio valley/Great Lakes by the weekend...and as is typically the case from this forecast range... how reliable is the sampling of the driving mid level energy that is currently still more than a 1000 miles off the west coast of the Pacific Northwest. The main feature will be a sfc low that will be consolidating and deepening over the Ohio Valley Friday night. As this system approaches...widespread steady pcpn will spread across all of our forecast area. While the scenario favors just rain at this point... its not out of the question that a slightly more southern track could allow for some wet snow. The system will then pass by during the day Saturday. The GFS is the outlier of the major packages...taking the low by to our west and at a faster clip than its Canadian and European counterparts. This solution is not part of our forecast. Will lean heavily on the 4D VAR assimilated guidance from the ECMWF and NH Canadian...which track the low near or just south of us. That should keep widespread steady pcpn over our area on Saturday...likely as rain. It would not take much of a jog to the south though to give us wet snow...but like the GFS solution...this would be an outlier. The pcpn is forecast to taper off Saturday night and Sunday with colder air changing the leftover pcpn to snow showers. It is possible that it could be rather windy on Sunday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Euro is a wintry mess of precipitation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Big hit for the Dacks and interior New england..Shows some love to portions of WNY verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Yawn. It's unbelievable how it's been the SAME track for the entire winter. Every fricking time there's a warm/rain tongue right up through CNY. 3 bloody years in a row. One blow after another. Just let it end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Ya never know. It’s March. GFS says no way Jose. Stratospheric warming event could send a piece of the PV to us in 10-14 days. I still feel like I’m owed a big one. Today is the Storm of the Century anniversary, so don’t tell me it’s too late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ya never know. It’s March. GFS says no way Jose. Stratospheric warming event could send a piece of the PV to us in 10-14 days. I still feel like I’m owed a big one. Today is the Storm of the Century anniversary, so don’t tell me it’s too late. With NAO going negative after March 23rd to April 10th, I would say there's a high chance we will be seeing PV in that tim frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ya never know. It’s March. GFS says no way Jose. Stratospheric warming event could send a piece of the PV to us in 10-14 days. I still feel like I’m owed a big one. Today is the Storm of the Century anniversary, so don’t tell me it’s too late. My first year in NY, the best Lake effect snow event of the season that I experienced happened when I was NOT living on the Tug, but had moved in with friends in Sylvan Beach (Oneida County) temporarily. It happened on APRIL 1st. 1 foot of snow there. (Bville picked up around 6 inches from that one.) Then my first winter in Bville, our best synoptic snowfall (and OVERachiever) came on MARCH 23rd. We were supposed to get a trace to 2 inches, and the North Syracuse Burbs was plastered in about 7 inches of wet snow. Here's a pic I took in the middle of the event; That was the year we picked up several more accumulating snowfalls, and had 2 inches here in mid May...with some surviving until the next day. Spring has seemed to provide more wintry surprises here in recent years than the winters have. I doubt we're done with snowfall for the season. Could still have snowfall for another 2 more months! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Mid May 2 years ago in the middle of the day: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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