Spring 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Baum]

7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah this new climate has pretty much shut the door on record daytime highs, all about the record high lows now

New Orleans is a dump. I don't need its weather.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Baum said:

New Orleans is a dump. I don't need its weather.

Do the dew.

[cyclone77]

Ready 2 b steamed.

[hardypalmguy]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Speaking of how record highs in summer have become harder to come by in the last decade or so, here's a breakdown of the number of record highs (including ties) by season for Chicago since 2013.  For simplicity, I did this according to meteorological seasons.  

While it's only one location, I suspect other areas in the sub would also have numbers favoring the seasons outside of met summer.

 

Met winter:  11

Met spring:  7

Met summer:  2

Met fall:  13

This speaks volumes to the feeling that fall has become warmer over the last 10 years.

[A-L-E-K]

yeah extended late summer has real best climo vibes, gotta love it

[Hoosier]

Tuesday night-Wednesday morning looks like a decent candidate to not drop below 80 in Chicago.  It will be partially dictated by Tuesday's high temp for an elevated starting point and would like to see a high of at least 95 on that day to raise the odds of not dropping below 80 that night.  

925 mb temps are progged around 27C Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.  I have noticed that it is tough to get nighttime lows much below the 925 mb temp in urban areas when there's a bit of a breeze, which we look to have.  27C is 80.6F, so it gives an idea of where the low could end up.  Not a perfect system but an approximation.

If it does happen, the issue would be getting that temp to hold all through Wednesday, as it looks like a front will want to slip through late Wednesday or so.

As mentioned, Chicago's earliest 80 degree low is in late June... June 28 to be exact.  So this would be almost a full 2 weeks earlier.

[hardypalmguy]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Tuesday night-Wednesday morning looks like a decent candidate to not drop below 80 in Chicago.  It will be partially dictated by Tuesday's high temp for an elevated starting point and would like to see a high of at least 95 on that day to raise the odds of not dropping below 80 that night.  

925 mb temps are progged around 27C Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.  I have noticed that it is tough to get nighttime lows much below the 925 mb temp in urban areas when there's a bit of a breeze, which we look to have.  27C is 80.6F, so it gives an idea of where the low could end up.  Not a perfect system but an approximation.

If it does happen, the issue would be getting that temp to hold all through Wednesday, as it looks like a front will want to slip through late Wednesday or so.

As mentioned, Chicago's earliest 80 degree low is in late June... June 28 to be exact.  So this would be almost a full 2 weeks earlier.

Let's do it.  MKE too.  MKE usually outperforms ORD on warm lows.

[Chicago Storm]

Not ready for the "short range" thread yet, but GFS has been pretty consist with keying in on some sort of severe threat in parts of the sub next Tuesday-Wednesday. Some pretty impressive soundings in WI on some runs, but as usual they're irritatingly close to being up in the woods and/or the nigh-unchaseable Driftless Area/Wisconsin River valley.

Just put it there.  In previous years the severe thread was titled short/medium range.

the deed has been done.