Spring 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

6 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

South of the border, sure.

time 2 move 2 chicago friend

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 move 2 chicago friend

palms are thriving down here.

[A-L-E-K]

honestly contemplating adding a couple to our courtyard

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

honestly contemplating adding a couple to our courtyard

https://www.ebay.com/itm/154839724066?var=454947912027

[A-L-E-K]

condo board gonna love when i submit expenses for $300 in palms 

[Hoosier]

I think our guy from WI is suffering from some ptsd -- post traumatic spring disorder... characterized by extreme skepticism that true spring or even summerlike warmth is on the way next week due to the fact that spring has been cool thus far.

[Torchageddon]

I have ptwd - post traumatic winter disorder. The difference is mine goes away during the summer where I have little memory of how bad things can get and always believe the lie that I can overcome winter's blah mind-numbs.

[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

honestly contemplating adding a couple to our courtyard

needle palms are the way to go.

[Hoosier]

LOT already has mid 80s in the forecast for next Tuesday.  That is impressive for a week out.

[A-L-E-K]

Ready 2 hit the beach

[frostfern]

It will be fun watching the leaves suddenly grow like mad when this torch arrives.  A lot of buds are open giving a yellowish hue here and there, but the canopies are still looking pretty brown and naked.

[Chicago Storm]

On 4/18/2022 at 7:19 AM, Chicago Storm said:

As mentioned above, our next change is on tap for this week. A deeper trough is expected to move through the Western and Central US. This is still expected to bring a push of warmer temps to the Central/Eastern US and some severe potential to the Central US, later this week on into this next weekend.




The bad news is this pattern adjustment is part of a much larger overall shift, one that will bring back continued troughing to the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast starting early next week
(Final week of April)…and will likely continue as we flip the calendar into May. This will be the second time this spring that we’ve seen a notable -NAO, after not having one almost the whole winter. For those looking for sustained deep spring-like warmth and severe chances, it still isn’t happening any time soon.

As was expected, the cool/active Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast troughing pattern has continued into the first week of May.

 

The good news is...As several have recently alluded to we will be seeing another pattern flip coming up, and a significant one at that. This upcoming pattern will feature the best and most sustained spring conditions most have seen so far this year (I know that's not saying much). This new pattern will set in this upcoming weekend, continuing through next week, and then quite possibly into the following weekend (May 14/15th) as well. This upcoming pattern will be dominated by a -PNA/Western US trough, an Eastern Canada/Eastern US mean ridge, and a +NAO/Greenland area troughing. This pattern will support overall mild/warm temps for most and an active/stormy period as well.

[Chicago Storm]

Don't get too excited.  GFS is the light beer version of that at best.

how’s that working for you now?

that’s why it’s ENS>OP at this range for overall pattern recognition.

[hardypalmguy]

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

how’s that working for you now?

that’s why it’s ENS>OP at this range for overall pattern recognition.

Guess it's time to plant some palm trees. 

[Harry Perry]

Just got to Sarasota Florida yesterday and we head back next Wednesday.. safe to say that we’re bringing summer with us. Not seeing much in the long range showing a pattern flip back to cold either. Very nice signal, and as I kind of figured - we’ll go from 50’s right to 80’s with a flip of a switch. 

[Hoosier]

I think there's a reasonable chance that we see 90 in the LOT cwa next week.

I could certainly see it happening at a place like MDW, if it's not more widespread...

[frostfern]

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think there's a reasonable chance that we see 90 in the LOT cwa next week.

I could certainly see it happening at a place like MDW, if it's not more widespread...

The models show the ridge shooting up past James Bay.  It could hit 90 in Northern Ontario with what's being shown.  At least any areas where the soil is sufficiently dry.

[hardypalmguy]

18 hours ago, frostfern said:

The models show the ridge shooting up past James Bay.  It could hit 90 in Northern Ontario with what's being shown.  At least any areas where the soil is sufficiently dry.

Latest models squash this thing before it even gets going.

[A-L-E-K]

gfs has like 3 days aoa 90 at ord, lol

[hardypalmguy]

It's not all ORD.  Look north.  The heat is squashed south.

[Chicago Storm]

It's not all ORD.  Look north.  The heat is squashed south.

7 consecutive days of 70’s/80’s around MKE is the new ‘squashed south’.

in the words of alek, tth.

[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

7 consecutive days of 70’s/80’s around MKE is the new ‘squashed south’.

in the words of alek, tth.

We had that in March 2012.  Two months later isn't anything special.

[Hoosier]

LOT has been mentioning the possibility of some health concerns in their afds due to the combination of such cool wx followed by unusually warm/humid wx.  The wording raised an obvious question in my mind.  Are they actually floating the idea behind the scenes of bending the criteria that much and issuing a heat advisory for heat indices that are in the 90s?  It would kind of be like issuing a winter storm warning for an early 2-4" just because it's the first snow.

[Chicago Storm]

We had that in March 2012.  Two months later isn't anything special.

well, it would be well above normal.

maybe the warm front will stall at the border and you can sit in the 40’s all week instead.

[hardypalmguy]

well, it would be well above normal.

maybe the warm front will stall at the border and you can sit in the 40’s all week instead.

At least I don’t Duluth specials like that until august.


.

[Baum]

26 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

well, it would be well above normal.

maybe the warm front will stall at the border and you can sit in the 40’s all week instead.

we all know the fake warm fronts stall at I-80 in Illinois and surge north of Green Bay when the real heat hits.  

[Hoosier]

While the temps will be noteworthy and pretty impressive for this time of year, I think what will make this stand out from most other May heat spells is the heat/humidity combo.  Without checking in detail, I'm going to guess that most other May heat spells have not been accompanied by dews like what are progged. 

[Hoosier]

12z Euro actually has a couple spots of 80 degree dews at 132 hrs.  I hesitate to use the word impossible when it comes to weather, but I will this time.  Impossible.  No way.

[CheeselandSkies]

Of course we all kind of suspected this was coming but it's depressing to watch it unfold on the GFS. Monster CAPE/moisture finally arrives early next week but no upper support/trigger. Hello, summer.

[Baum]

33 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Of course we all kind of suspected this was coming but it's depressing to watch it unfold on the GFS. Monster CAPE/moisture finally arrives early next week but no upper support/trigger. Hello, summer.

still real early for you severe weather guys. Get the heat and dews in place and eventually there will be  match to light the gas. Oddly, lost my fascination with severe with age, but emptied out every book in the library reading about tornado events and the science behind them as a kid. So take my views with a grain of salt.