Birds~69 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 6z GFS (cold air coming in faster). Isn't the precip moving out faster as well? Anything worthwhile done by 3pm-ish? I thought late afternoon/6pm or so yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Isn't the precip moving out faster as well? Anything worthwhile done by 3pm-ish? I thought late afternoon/6pm or so yesterday... I think the issue may be that the low is much stronger than what we saw with the last storm and is juicier, so more total qpf available. The timing of the cold as the heavier precip departs will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Waiting for today's WPC update from yesterday evening but even then, it was a non-zero chance for 4+" in much of the CWA except S/E with yesterday's evaluation. IMHO, if that low somehow moves east of where the models have shown it, all that heavier frozen moves east with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I think the issue may be that the low is much stronger than what we saw with the last storm and is juicier, so more total qpf available. The timing of the cold as the heavier precip departs will be key. That's always the case in these rain to snow events. That's why they're so difficult to predict. Usually get screwed but occasionally the weather Gods throw us a bone... 31F/Fog...tad icy on windshield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I know it's the 6z GFS (a 12z would be better) but just for the heck of it to look at what it thinks the timing is for the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z NAM with the temp timing. And note since this is a nor'easter, there will be some strong winds with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 wsw up for us for 3-5 lets see if we can make it to the warning phase Lol. 5” would a winner for the season let’s do this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Here was Mt. Holly's storm summary just before 6 am - (flash freeze for us in the SE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 WPC's update for this morning - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 SPC actually has parts of the CWA in Marginal and Slight Risk for severe for SWDY2 (am guessing due to winds) - SWDY1 (not sure if this means we will have some convective t-storms from the nor'easter - possibly due to the low starting to bomb as it moves away plus the temp changes to come, but it seems to suggest it) - SWDY2 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 This comes on the five year anniversary of Stella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 12z NAMs (both regular and 3km) are colder and bring more snow to Philly and I-95. Jackpot is in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos with 6-10”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 12z NAMs (both regular and 3km) are colder and bring more snow to Philly and I-95. Jackpot is in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos with 6-10”. NAM (at least the 3k) is doing a "double low" thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Yes, NAM coming in hot & heavy again, fwiw. I'll still take the under on accumulations but think the snow could fall heavy for a few hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Good thing the salt and shovel are still out on the porch. Bring on some flakes this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 outdoor soccer tournament tomorrow should be brutal, would love for the snow to come in earlier so games get cancelled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I have zero expectations along 95. Would be nice to squeeze out an inch or two but not expecting more than white rain. Lehigh valley looks solid though I still don't think those maps of 6-8" verify with it falling during the day. It will have to be snowing hard for that to happen despite the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I went 3-6" far N and W lollis to 8" (Reading-Allentown), 2-5" West Chester-KOP-Doylestown, c-3" East of there to the River. Subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Every one of the mesos are on board now. Big adjustments last 18hrs for sure. Still a little time to go, but looks solid with a classic late season rain to snow track wave along a front type thing. Globals out to lunch with thermals on this one. Underestimating the CAA push coming. Squalls likely Saturday evening and night as well. Last hurrah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Gfs coming in line with the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: This comes on the five year anniversary of Stella Who or what is Stella?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Who or what is Stella?? Winter storm 5 years ago… we ended up getting more sleet than forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 12z GFS (and corresponding update to the NBM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Who or what is Stella?? That is a Weather Channel naming thing. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, MacChump said: outdoor soccer tournament tomorrow should be brutal, would love for the snow to come in earlier so games get cancelled and they're cancelled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Warnings going up to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, MGorse said: That is a Weather Channel naming thing. So stupid to name winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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