Newman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 NAM and Euro seem on board for a decent advisory, maybe warning level, event for those especially NW of the fall line and into the Lehigh Valley. EE Rule? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Will post what I had in the general obs thread regarding the 12z GFS. Back end thump (might not be enough for areas S and E). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z CMC is impressive for Berks and the Lehigh Valley with 6+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Newman said: 12z CMC is impressive for Berks and the Lehigh Valley with 6+" Be nice to have at least one Warning level snow out here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Ugh.. I hate these type of events even during peak climo. Never seem to work out. My expectations are with the GFS. But I'd obviously love a cmc outcome. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Probably too late to hope for a 3-6" event in PHL but last chance so staying tuned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 It's March, always take the under. But this is most likely the last winter event we'll track for another 8 or 9 months, so I'll enjoy it for what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 As the NAM is in process, this was the 12z EC. Kinda went "all-in" and even has a couple storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Not buying it because snow behind fronts works out 2% of the time and the ECM is on a losing streak. Nope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Yeah, looks like the NAM is doing that dry slot thingy after the low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Yeah, looks like the NAM is doing that dry slot thingy after the low passes. This near the end of the run panel looks like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Even the 18z NBM brought the snow east (usually that is more conservative and pretty much nailed the last storm since it uses a number models and other data). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Mt. Holly mention of the post-storm cold after this weekend's cold frontal passage (heard a similar forecast from NBC 10 folks) - Not expected to be record cold but well below normal for March. (*hears Paul rustling through his Chesco data* ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 ANNNDDDD... the 18z GFS wants to be contrarian... again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6abc snow map...I'll take a little snow w/overnight temps around 20F and high winds to close out winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 6abc snow map...I'll take a little snow w/overnight temps around 20F and high winds to close out winter. Mt. Holly snow map - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 18z RGEM in the compromise position between NAM/EC and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z EC (everyone cashes in with "something" ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 0z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 RGEM further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Gfs also giving more love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Latest RAP… wow… warning level snows to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 RAP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 0z GFS - seems something that came in on the west coast got sampled and they are moving the low east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z NAM takes it back a bit and NBM is trying to keep up with the wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z REGEM (and throwing in the 0z Ukie for good measure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Mt. Holly overnight update and snow map (will definitely get updated this morning with the WSWs and Watch issued since the below) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 PAZ054-055-112200- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0006.220312T1100Z-220313T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0005.220312T1100Z-220313T0000Z/ Carbon-Monroe- Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg 357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Carbon and Monroe. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Consider canceling unnecessary travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ (these will probably become WWAs) Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-112200- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0007.220312T1100Z-220313T0000Z/ Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton 357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex and Warren. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Lehigh and Northampton. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z GFS (cold air coming in faster). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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