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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


Weather Will
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More seriously, I like this 12z 3k NAM more than any previous meso runs for MBY. I noticed last night on the super long range hrrr, that it focused a wave of heavier precip through the metro corridors around 12-15z as cyclogenesis intensified to our south, but had it as snow. Earlier NAM runs had that as rain for us, but this NAM finally has it as snow as well. I think that feature is pretty critical to getting accumulation in the metros and lowlands below the fall line. If it’s ripping fatties and 31-34F as advertised, it will accumulate. If that feature is rain and it only turns to snow with that broad diffuse backside anafrontal precipitation, I’m a lot more skeptical of daytime accumulation outside the rural areas. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

More seriously, I like this 12z 3k NAM more than any previous meso runs for MBY. I noticed last night on the super long range hrrr, that it focused a wave of heavier precip through the metro corridors around 12-15z as cyclogenesis intensified to our south, but had it as snow. Earlier NAM runs had that as rain for us, but this NAM finally has it as snow as well. I think that feature is pretty critical to getting accumulation in the metros and lowlands below the fall line. If it’s ripping fatties and 31-34F as advertised, it will accumulate. If that feature is rain and it only turns to snow with that broad diffuse backside anafrontal precipitation, I’m a lot more skeptical of daytime accumulation outside the rural areas. 

Rates are king in the spring.

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Regarding the "cut back" amounts on the NAM, I wonder how much of this has to do with the SLP placement.  Notice at 12Z it is much farther northeast (appears to go where the convection is??).  I'm using the 10m wind/SLP plot here from TT because it's less busy and you can see the "L" more clearly than the regular radar/SLP plot:

[animate output image]

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5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z 3K NAM….. first time in awhile everything trending in the right direction inside 24 hours….

6F2DA96B-D985-4DB0-9F41-01D66EB721E7.png

2129B5F4-861C-439B-8A53-FC7C050BCC6B.png

Those snow depth maps are awful. The reason in our area the kuchera and 10-1 maps are usually overdone is because often the models are simply wrong about it snowing at all.  If the model is just wrong and the rain snow line ends up further north and we get no snow…or 3 hours of snow instead of 8 hours…then of course the snow maps will bust. But where it actually does end up snowing those depth maps are atrociously low. Trust me from someone who spends a great deal of time in winter in Vermont or WV or Colorado…places where it does actually end up snowing…the depth maps are awful and always just low. 

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5 hours ago, Ji said:
6 hours ago, Weather Will said:
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph.* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland as well as portions of northern Virginia.* WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow between 5 and 7 AM early Saturday morning. The steadiest snow will be through midday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may
 

 

Wow 2-4 is pathetic. Their snow maps were 3-5 last night and models got better

1. Who cares. We see everything they see.  Make your own assessment. 
2. it’s a different shift. Maybe the day shift was simply being more liberal and the night shift is more conservative.  Perhaps had the night shift been on yesterday the forecast would have been 1-2”. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1. Who cares. We see everything they see.  Make your own assessment. 
2. it’s a different shift. Maybe the day shift was simply being more liberal and the night shift is more conservative.  Perhaps had the night shift been on yesterday the forecast would have been 1-2”. 

JI isn't happy unless he's unhappy.

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2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

06z EURO steady from overnight, puts the heaviest snow over the metro. 

Image order is Kuchera/10:1/Snow Depth

GIFEURO.thumb.gif.8303a6094816052cf14ee13e1ed60fae.gif

The Euro shows the jackpot of the snow directly over my house, the one weekend this whole winter I will not be there. I will be further north in southern PA at a swim meet, somehow I might get less snow. I think I might lose it if this happens. 

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10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Same plot shown above but for the College Park area. Nice omega within DGZ but as is usually the case; a warm nose to worry about

nam3km_2022031112_fh27_sounding_38.99N_76_94W.thumb.png.1372d609320308c76ce91014dd813662.png

This is a completely different situation than worrying about warm air intruding in the mid levels. The warm air is on its way out at this time, and every successive sounding shows the 850 temps dropping.

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43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m going with the Kuchera 12:1 daytime March snow ratios 

You know my thoughts regarding what way boundary temps have been going lately…but if temps do actually drop below freezing AND it’s coming down 1-2” per hour like guidance is showing…ratios could be high in those bursts. That intensity will mix out any warm later and block enough solar to render that moot. Lots of ifs in there though. But I do think this scenario has more upside potential than most of our marginal threats lately. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hi-Res FV3 has had it's best run of the storm.

1647133200-20ZONeMFXs4.png

If we are saying that the snow depth maps are bunk (thanks @psuhoffmanfor the permission to do that) then we gotta start thinking about 1-2" as the floor. Ceiling looks increasingly like WSW criteria. 

I might actually get less snow at the meet than at home, though being further north will probably help me with ratios in the storm and gives me more room if the cold air is delayed. But at the same time Im a bit nervous 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You know my thoughts regarding what way boundary temps have been going lately…but if temps do actually drop below freezing AND it’s coming down 1-2” per hour like guidance is showing…ratios could be high in those bursts. That intensity will mix out any warm later and block enough solar to render that moot. Lots of ifs in there though. But I do think this scenario has more upside potential than most of our marginal threats lately. 

Definitely.  And this is a highly dynamic setup which helps a lot I'm sure.  I suppose this is how they can get similar heavy snow events (relatively speaking) in more southern areas late in the season, even as they also would have a higher sun angle and warmer antecedent ground.

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@HighStakes March is where it’s at up here. In my 15 years here we’ve had a warning level March snow 10 times.  Feb is skewed by that ~70” month in 2010 but if you take that one year out March is by far our snowiest month!  

march>December it seems from this point on. its actually sad....i love December snow

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