Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph.* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland as well as portions of northern Virginia.* WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow between 5 and 7 AM early Saturday morning. The steadiest snow will be through midday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility mayWow 2-4 is pathetic. Their snow maps were 3-5 last night and models got better 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 My first thread and I did not kill the storm!!!You definitely tried to kill it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: My first thread and I did not kill the storm!!! You definitely tried to kill it though I will take what is being forecasted in a heartbeat…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 WB 6Z NBM nice uptick overnight compared to 0Z. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 06z GFS still nice.. 2-4/3-5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Blah 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: My first thread and I did not kill the storm!!! Yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Running the Celtic Canter 5k and bar crawl afterwards in Westminster tomorrow in the snow will be GREAT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Only been half paying attention the last few days, but Saturday is trending towards a beer drinking / Jebwalking kinda of day. All chips in for the final round. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Great write-up this morning by LWX: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level trough and its associated strong cold front will approach the Appalachians through this evening. The southern stream system will begin to phase with the northern stream system, causing the trough to become more neutrally tilted while surface low pressure develops and strengthens along the front. Much of this evening may turn out dry, but rain will quickly overspread late tonight into early Saturday morning in response the cold front and its associated low pressure approaching the area. The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is expected to end as a period of snow for most areas. Latest guidance has shifted slightly east with the track of the surface low, hence allowing the cold air to spill in quicker. With this scenario, confidence increases for accumulating snow across most locations Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still highest over the Mountains and west of Interstate 95, but having that been said there is increasing confidence for snow accumulation along and east of Interstate 95 as well. Typically, it is difficult to get a rain changing to snow setup east of the mountains on a northwest flow in the low-levels, especially for this time of year. However, reasons for increasing confidence in this occurring are that there is Arctic air being drawn into this system behind the cold front. Also, there is stronger Fgen forcing in the 850-700mb layer behind the cold front, and there are coupling jet streaks in the upper-levels (right entrance of northern stream and left exit of southern stream). The strong dynamics suggest that a period of moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation will add to the cooling from a dynamical standpoint while the Artic air is rushing in. For these reasons, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning in the Allegheny Highlands and northern VA Blue Ridge Mountains with advisories elsewhere late Friday night into Saturday. For locations farther east (the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas), they certainly may need to be added to the advisory. However, with a slightly later start time, thinking was to re-assess with the latest information later this morning or afternoon. For along/west of the Allegheny Front, there may be a break when the synoptic snow ends around midday Saturday, but additional snow showers are expected, and some may be heavy due to an unstable atmosphere, deep boundary layer that has moisture, and temps in the DGZ. Near blizzard conditions are possible. Confidence was too low for a Blizzard Warning at this time, since it may be more localized. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday morning through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere. Winds may gradually diminish later Saturday night while dry and very cold conditions persist. One other concern is for a strong to severe storm or even an isolated tornado near extreme southern MD early Saturday morning. The warm sector will be nearby with the low passing through, and there will be plenty of low and deep layer shear. However, confidence is low at this time since instability may not be rooted within the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: 06z GFS still nice.. 2-4/3-5 And still time for improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Go snow go. Bring spring in with a bang. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 41 minutes ago, mappy said: Blah It’s a Saturday and will be gone by Monday. Seems like potentially really interesting and fun for 24 hours though. I’m rooting like hell to maximize and then spring is here Tuesday. Win win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 BlahWhat in the modeling csused this to drop from this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Looks good you really can't ask for more in March. We get two days of solid winter and then it warms up. sometimes we get snow in March and it lasts 3 hours with temps in 60s next day. I plan to enjoy every flake because it will likely be the last round. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It’s a Saturday and will be gone by Monday. Seems like potentially really interesting and fun for 24 hours though. I’m rooting like hell to maximize and then spring is here Tuesday. Win win. I hope you get what you want! Enjoy it friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 What's interesting is if a certain someone went to noaa.gov and typed in their zip code it would NOT have a WWA for their location right now....hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's interesting is if a certain someone went to noaa.gov and typed in their zip code it would NOT have a WWA for their location right now....hmmmmm Pray for the snow hole lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I wonder if this could be a sneaky storm like early March 1999. That one dropped about 13” on us (Fairfax) and was extremely unexpected. It was a completely different story east of the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 @HighStakes called it yesterday. This has the potential to be the biggest event of the season for Northern and western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looks exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: @HighStakes called it yesterday. This has the potential to be the biggest event of the season for Northern and western areas. If I get more than 4" (which is my highest total this winter), I'm turning my green tag in and leaving. yall can wish for what you want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: If I get more than 4" (which is my highest total this winter), I'm turning my green tag in and leaving. yall can wish for what you want. No you won’t 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: If I get more than 4" (which is my highest total this winter), I'm turning my green tag in and leaving. yall can wish for what you want. I hope you get 3.9. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: No you won’t 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: I hope you get 3.9. Randy wouldn't let me even if I tried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Seriously though, I hope you guys get a good last snow before spring returns next week. don't mind me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 06z EURO steady from overnight, puts the heaviest snow over the metro. Image order is Kuchera/10:1/Snow Depth 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: Seriously though, I hope you guys get a good last snow before spring returns next week. don't mind me. Yeah, normally if this were just a bit of white rain with chillier temperatures I wouldn't really care and would think "blah!" But I have to say I'm really into it now given the highly dynamic setup and blast of cold/winter for a day! It'll be in the 60s next week, but it's kinda cool to have winter go out with a literal bang! Just keep thinking TULIPS! They are coming in about another month I believe!! And yes, when they do, photos will be forthcoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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