CAPE Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM; Maybe I need to start posting the snow maps for next January… A lot of precip for here. Mostly rain and sleet. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 This is still primarily a rain event for areas along and east of I-95, despite what the latest Euro runs are depicting. I just can't see it. And there likely won't be a prolonged sleetfest either. This is a pretty clear cut cold chasing precip situation imo. Sure there could be a brief period of frozen but not likely anything significant for the lowlands. Remains to be seen how areas NW of the Fall line can do with this, but better odds for at least a couple inches. This still looks like a moderate snow event for places far west/NW, maybe heavy for the far western highlands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM; Maybe I need to start posting the snow maps for next January… Yeah. I am done with this winter. Bring on the torch and lets reload for next winters fail. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: Remains to be seen how areas NW of the Fall line can do with this, We are cooked NW of the fall line too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: Congrats! After living through Calvert winters, you deserve it (I grew up in Owings) Thanks man, was secretly contemplating what it would take to convince my wife to drive back up tomorrow and pitch a tent for the storm and camp out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 hours ago, mdhokie said: whoa that WSW reads like it was written by a weenie. 6-12, blizzard conditions, hypothermia possible! I remember we used to get blizzard warnings around here in the before times, back when I was still in my late twenties.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We are cooked NW of the fall line too. The professionals would disagree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The professionals would disagree I feel good about this for your area. I think you will get the goods with this one. Send pics. It’s been a while since I have seen snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The professionals would disagree WPC is certainly a little bullish - has the 50% for >2” running just NW of the NW DC border. Don’t know if they consider snow depth, but I like to see it regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The professionals would disagree Good luck brother. I'm praying for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The center moves along so fast that dynamics will change at breakneck speed too. Track appears to be RIC-SBY-eLI-wBOS and it takes a mere six hours to go that far (RGEM 12z and 18z guidance). For DCA would expect winds to back around ESE to NE to NW during that six hour period, rain to sleet to snow but probably only about 1" snow ending with squalls and wind gusts to 45 mph. Airport amounts may be something like 1.2" BWI, 1.4" DCA, 2.2" IAD. Hourly temps something like 45, 40, 35, 32, 30, 29, 28 in that segment. Snow amounts will increase gradually northwest of DC to 3" around FDK and 7-10" in some higher locations. Near blizzard conditions will develop (reduced visibility in blowing snow briefly spreading into I-95 corridor during squalls). Probably some thunder with the sleet and snow portions. Areas just northwest of I-95 could have very slick roads as a result of sleet, flash freeze and snow accumulating on roads, further north it will be mostly snow which will make road conditions somewhat easier to maintain and further south melting will leave roads only slushy or wet. Looks like the most wintry conditions will be 15z-18z (10 a.m. to 1 p.m.). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z EURO has the system a lot more put together. Looking like it should be a wetter run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO has the system a lot more put together. Looking like it should be a wetter run. If you wouldn't mind also checking the 10m winds - I realize Euro always overdoes it, but curious what its showing. The WSW for the mountains mentions 40-55 gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Pick whichever kind of snow map speaks to you the most -- all are generally an improvement -- can't say it is for everyone, but mostly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Odds for my yard: Trace or more: 75% 0.1” or more: 40% 1” or more: 15% 2” or more: lolz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: If you wouldn't mind also checking the 2m winds - I realize Euro always overdoes it, but curious what its showing. The WSW for the mountains mentions 40-55 gusts. I got 10m winds -- this is the most impressive panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS. I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high. Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I got 10m winds -- this is the most impressive panel. Thanks, sorry I meant 10m. We do wind well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS. I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high. Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. They just changed mine from all snow after 10am to after 8am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS. I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high. Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.Lol..zero chance the ville get 3-5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS. I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high. Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Lol..zero chance the ville get 3-5 That would make your chance less than zero I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The center moves along so fast that dynamics will change at breakneck speed too. Track appears to be RIC-SBY-eLI-wBOS and it takes a mere six hours to go that far (RGEM 12z and 18z guidance). For DCA would expect winds to back around ESE to NE to NW during that six hour period, rain to sleet to snow but probably only about 1" snow ending with squalls and wind gusts to 45 mph. Airport amounts may be something like 1.2" BWI, 1.4" DCA, 2.2" IAD. Hourly temps something like 45, 40, 35, 32, 30, 29, 28 in that segment. Snow amounts will increase gradually northwest of DC to 3" around FDK and 7-10" in some higher locations. Near blizzard conditions will develop (reduced visibility in blowing snow briefly spreading into I-95 corridor during squalls). Probably some thunder with the sleet and snow portions. Areas just northwest of I-95 could have very slick roads as a result of sleet, flash freeze and snow accumulating on roads, further north it will be mostly snow which will make road conditions somewhat easier to maintain and further south melting will leave roads only slushy or wet. Looks like the most wintry conditions will be 15z-18z (10 a.m. to 1 p.m.). I have been on this board and the prior board for over 15 years now and usually sit and listen. I have yet to see even one of your forecasts come true. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I'll take the 18z RGEM for a fun Saturday morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 So the most likely is the snow depth change. Am I safe to hug that? Is there a worse snow map to hug? Is there a least snow most likely snow map? How about a you ain’t getting shit map? I’m open to suggestions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So the most likely is the snow depth change. Am I safe to hug that? Is there a worse snow map to hug? Is there a least snow most likely snow map? How about a you ain’t getting shit map? I’m open to suggestions We tend to do well when the pessimism ratchets up and the Euro gets tossed faster than Dennis Rodman in his prime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: We tend to do well when the pessimism ratchets up and the Euro gets tossed faster than Dennis Rodman in his prime Ok. I’m at 9 on this one. Cold chasing precip in March is like me chasing my wife upstairs…both end with nothing to report. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Ok. I’m at 9 on this one. Cold chasing precip in March is like me chasing my wife upstairs…both end with nothing to report. Except you with a torn ACL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 53 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pick whichever kind of snow map speaks to you the most -- all are generally an improvement -- can't say it is for everyone, but mostly. What's that heavier blob over southern Maryland? Hmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The professionals would disagree The “professionals” have had a rough few months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Per euro...Loudoun never sees any rain lol. Its all winter precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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