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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


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This is still primarily a rain event for areas along and east of I-95, despite what the latest Euro runs are depicting. I just can't see it. And there likely won't be a prolonged sleetfest either. This is a  pretty clear cut cold chasing precip situation imo. Sure there could be a brief period of frozen but not likely anything significant for the lowlands. Remains to be seen how areas NW of the Fall line can do with this, but better odds for at least a couple inches. This still looks like a moderate snow event for places far west/NW, maybe heavy for the far western highlands.

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The center moves along so fast that dynamics will change at breakneck speed too. Track appears to be RIC-SBY-eLI-wBOS and it takes a mere six hours to go that far (RGEM 12z and 18z guidance). 

For DCA would expect winds to back around ESE to NE to NW during that six hour period, rain to sleet to snow but probably only about 1" snow ending with squalls and wind gusts to 45 mph. Airport amounts may be something like 1.2" BWI, 1.4" DCA, 2.2" IAD. Hourly temps something like 45, 40, 35, 32, 30, 29, 28 in that segment. 

Snow amounts will increase gradually northwest of DC to 3" around FDK and 7-10" in some higher locations. Near blizzard conditions will develop (reduced visibility in blowing snow briefly spreading into I-95 corridor during squalls). Probably some thunder with the sleet and snow portions. 

Areas just northwest of I-95 could have very slick roads as a result of sleet, flash freeze and snow accumulating on roads, further north it will be mostly snow which will make road conditions somewhat easier to maintain and further south melting will leave roads only slushy or wet. Looks like the most wintry conditions will be 15z-18z (10 a.m. to 1 p.m.). 

 

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Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS.

I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high.

 

Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

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Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS.

I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high.

 

Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

They just changed mine from all snow after 10am to after 8am

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Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS.
I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high.
 
Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
StormTotalSnowWeb1.jpg
Lol..zero chance the ville get 3-5
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:
Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS.
I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high.
 
Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
StormTotalSnowWeb1.jpg

Lol..zero chance the ville get 3-5

That would make your chance less than zero I suppose 

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13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The center moves along so fast that dynamics will change at breakneck speed too. Track appears to be RIC-SBY-eLI-wBOS and it takes a mere six hours to go that far (RGEM 12z and 18z guidance). 

For DCA would expect winds to back around ESE to NE to NW during that six hour period, rain to sleet to snow but probably only about 1" snow ending with squalls and wind gusts to 45 mph. Airport amounts may be something like 1.2" BWI, 1.4" DCA, 2.2" IAD. Hourly temps something like 45, 40, 35, 32, 30, 29, 28 in that segment. 

Snow amounts will increase gradually northwest of DC to 3" around FDK and 7-10" in some higher locations. Near blizzard conditions will develop (reduced visibility in blowing snow briefly spreading into I-95 corridor during squalls). Probably some thunder with the sleet and snow portions. 

Areas just northwest of I-95 could have very slick roads as a result of sleet, flash freeze and snow accumulating on roads, further north it will be mostly snow which will make road conditions somewhat easier to maintain and further south melting will leave roads only slushy or wet. Looks like the most wintry conditions will be 15z-18z (10 a.m. to 1 p.m.). 

 

I have been on this board and the prior board for over 15 years now and usually sit and listen. I have yet to see even one of your forecasts come true.

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

So the most likely is the snow depth change.  Am I safe to hug that?  Is there a worse snow map to hug?  Is there a least snow most likely snow map?  How about a you ain’t getting shit map?  I’m open to suggestions

We tend to do well when the pessimism ratchets up and the Euro gets tossed faster than Dennis Rodman in his prime

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10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

We tend to do well when the pessimism ratchets up and the Euro gets tossed faster than Dennis Rodman in his prime

Ok.  I’m at 9 on this one.  Cold chasing precip in March is like me chasing my wife upstairs…both end with nothing to report. 

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