stormtracker Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 GFS a little wetter for us city folk. I'm surrounded in here by mountain folks. Wake up you mofos 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Makes sense that the cold push probably won’t be as fast/strong as models have been indicating…it’s been the case all winter. While still likely a fun morning, I’d be surprised if Baltimore metro saw more than 2” or so. There’s no indication that’s the case on the ground. It’s snowing in extreme western Maryland WV WVA into SWPA, as it was supposed to be at this hour. Changeover with heavy snow wasn’t expected until 8am or so in Baltimore proper with the worst of it being from 8 to noon. Not sure anything’s changed in the regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Warning with 3-5 here. Showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: There’s no indication that’s the case on the ground. It’s snowing in extreme western Maryland WV WVA into SWPA, as it was supposed to be at this hour. Changeover with heavy snow wasn’t expected until 8am or so in Baltimore proper with the worst of it being from 8 to noon. Not sure anything’s changed in the regard Changeover in Baltimore metro and especially east side where I am is looking closer to 9-10am to me but we’ll see. Either way I’ll enjoy my pounding rain before the changeover lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Doesn’t count unless it’s perfectly predicted by NWS or your favorite model first! 1-3" is the forecast, which I guess is about right given the range of guidance, but I would be surprised to see more than an inch. The best forcing within the cold air looks to happen west of here, and it doesn't look as impressive on latest guidance. Your area gets in on it, but then it seems to shift more to the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Changeover in Baltimore metro and especially east side where I am is looking closer to 9-10am to me but we’ll see. Either way I’ll enjoy my pounding rain before the changeover lol I am more interested in getting the fertilizer soaked in lol. Grass already greening up nicely. I am hoping for a decent few hours later with a combo of light to moderate snow falling, big wind, and crashing temps. That would be fun to watch, and I am not really concerned about how much. An inch would get me over 20, so I suppose that's my "bar". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 1-3" is the forecast, which I guess is about right given the range of guidance, but I would be surprised to see more than an inch. The best forcing within the cold air looks to happen west of here, and it doesn't look as impressive on latest guidance. Your area gets in on it, but then it seems to shift more to the NE. I’ll be surprised to see an inch here too. All systems were go in my area until I fell asleep. I should know better when you snooze you lose…sage advice I didn’t heed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Changeover in Baltimore metro and especially east side where I am is looking closer to 9-10am to me but we’ll see. Either way I’ll enjoy my pounding rain before the changeover lol IMO, you just have to look west at ground truth. If places in Mississippi can go from the upper 40s to heavy snow (thunder snow reports near Jackson), dc and Baltimore certainly can as well. The radar is looking pretty good too. Should be plenty of qpf along the 95 corridor with a storm tracking right off the coast. Appear to have some gulf interaction occurring as well. We saw a similar temperature drop and changeover to snow just a few weeks ago if I’m not mistaken. My temp is down over 3 degrees in the past hour now that we’re seeing some showers pass through. 42. 10 degrees seems a long way away, but it’s snowing less than 80 miles from my house and temps are crashing like a rock not far behind the leaning edge of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Snowing 34F. 12F drop in past 2 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: IMO, you just have to look west at ground truth. If places in Mississippi can go from the upper 40s to heavy snow (thunder snow reports near Jackson), dc and Baltimore certainly can as well. The radar is looking pretty good too. Should be plenty of qpf along the 95 corridor with a storm tracking right off the coast. Appear to have some gulf interaction occurring as well. We saw a similar temperature drop and changeover to snow just a few weeks ago if I’m not mistaken. My temp is down over 3 degrees in the past hour now that we’re seeing some showers pass through. 42. 10 degrees seems a long way away, but it’s snowing less than 80 miles from my house and temps are crashing like a rock not far behind the leaning edge of the precip. I believe that you’re in good shape but we’ve seen time and time again this winter that lower elevations seems to lag with the cold push and finally getting cold enough. I recognize this storm is a little different, but the theme of winter still likely holds true for lower elevations with a little lag in temperatures falling. Still 48 here, I doubt I get to freezing before 11am ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Ripping sleet here. Snow mixing in 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Just flipped to a wet snow here in last 5 minutes, 34.4/31.7, same as EC above, about 13 degree drop in last 2 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Wind is roaring. Ground is white. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Baltimore will definitely struggle more than say my area to changeover (that’s not just a seasonal theme… it’s an always theme) but all it will take is a few hours of heavy snow to verify the advisory on grassy and colder surfaces - even downtown. Low elevations west and southwest of here have been changing over quickly. Ground reports on twitter have pretty much uniformly been that a clean rain to snow transition is occurring after temps crash rapidly. You could be right, but I don’t think Baltimore or DC struggle all that hard given the strength of the front. IMO, based on the radar, the 95 corridor will likely make up for some of the time lost to temps with heavier precip returns once things do changeover. 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I believe that you’re in good shape but we’ve seen time and time again this winter that lower elevations seems to lag with the cold push and finally getting cold enough. I recognize this storm is a little different, but the theme of winter still likely holds true for lower elevations with a little lag in temperatures falling. Still 48 here, I doubt I get to freezing before 10-11am ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Temp drop of 5 degrees the past hour. Atmosphere is starting crank to the west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 47 with moderate rain here. Just started in the last 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 10-13 degree temp drops being reported all over WV and W VA over the past 90-120 mins. It’s almost game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 41; light rain Brunswick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Temp continues to fall. 41.5 degrees intermittently raining. WSW hoisted for 3-6 I’d honestly be elated to get an inch or two with a few hours of heavy snow and 40-50mph wind gusts. Anything more is a bonus. Rain / snow line is getting close. Currently running from Martinsburg down to Staunton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Amazing how quickly the sleet transitioned to almost all snow. Ground turning white. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 41; light rain Brunswick 7-8am, we should be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Don’t usually pay much mind to warnings and such, but believe this time NWS dropped the ball waiting as long as they did. Also not a fan of the piecemeal advisory map they have going. I think that’s looking for precision that isnt possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 I like the look of this window for my yard. Some of that is rain and then sleety verbatim on the 6z GFS, but temps are crashing during this time and it might be hanging onto a warm layer aloft that could be overcome with the heavier precip. If its a tad colder later in this period I might end up with 3" instead of an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Pretty much all snow, wind ripping, snow coming in sheets like a summer thunderstorm 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Sleet/rain mix right now. Lost 2.6 degrees the past 15 min 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pretty much all snow, wind ripping, snow coming in sheets like a summer thunderstorm Tell me more about my future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Pouring snow. Just pouring. 31F. Landscape is white. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Visibility as low as I’ve seen this winter. Snow coming sideways. As @EastCoast NPZ said, literally pouring 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 35 with heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Visibility as low as I’ve seen this winter. Snow coming sideways. As @EastCoast NPZ said, literally pouring what's the stickage report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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