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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


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9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Makes sense that the cold push probably won’t be as fast/strong as models have been indicating…it’s been the case all winter. While still likely a fun morning, I’d be surprised if Baltimore metro saw more than 2” or so. 

There’s no indication that’s the case on the ground. It’s snowing in extreme western Maryland WV WVA into SWPA, as it was supposed to be at this hour. Changeover with heavy snow wasn’t expected until 8am or so in Baltimore proper with the worst of it being from 8 to noon. Not sure anything’s changed in the regard  

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

There’s no indication that’s the case on the ground. It’s snowing in extreme western Maryland WV WVA into SWPA, as it was supposed to be at this hour. Changeover with heavy snow wasn’t expected until 8am or so in Baltimore proper with the worst of it being from 8 to noon. Not sure anything’s changed in the regard  

Changeover in Baltimore metro and especially east side where I am is looking closer to 9-10am to me but we’ll see. Either way I’ll enjoy my pounding rain before the changeover lol

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Doesn’t count unless it’s perfectly predicted by NWS or your favorite model first!

1-3" is the forecast, which I guess is about right given the range of guidance, but I would be surprised to see more than an inch. The best forcing within the cold air looks to happen west of here, and it doesn't look as impressive on latest guidance. Your area gets in on it, but then it seems to shift more to the NE.

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3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Changeover in Baltimore metro and especially east side where I am is looking closer to 9-10am to me but we’ll see. Either way I’ll enjoy my pounding rain before the changeover lol

I am more interested in getting the fertilizer soaked in lol. Grass already greening up nicely.

I am hoping for a decent few hours later with a combo of light to moderate snow falling, big wind, and crashing temps. That would be fun to watch, and I am not really concerned about how much. An inch would get me over 20, so I suppose that's my "bar".

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

1-3" is the forecast, which I guess is about right given the range of guidance, but I would be surprised to see more than an inch. The best forcing within the cold air looks to happen west of here, and it doesn't look as impressive on latest guidance. Your area gets in on it, but then it seems to shift more to the NE.

I’ll be surprised to see an inch here too.  All systems were go in my area until I fell asleep.  I should know better when you snooze you lose…sage advice I didn’t heed. 

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3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Changeover in Baltimore metro and especially east side where I am is looking closer to 9-10am to me but we’ll see. Either way I’ll enjoy my pounding rain before the changeover lol

IMO, you just have to look west at ground truth. If places in Mississippi can go from the upper 40s to heavy snow  (thunder snow reports near Jackson), dc and Baltimore certainly can as well. The radar is looking pretty good too. Should be plenty of qpf along the 95 corridor with a storm tracking right off the coast. Appear to have some gulf interaction occurring as well.   
 

We saw a similar temperature drop and changeover to snow just a few weeks ago if I’m not mistaken.  My temp is down over 3 degrees in the past hour now that we’re seeing some showers pass through. 42. 10 degrees seems a long way away, but it’s snowing less than 80 miles from my house and temps are crashing like a rock not far behind the leaning edge of the precip. 

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4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

IMO, you just have to look west at ground truth. If places in Mississippi can go from the upper 40s to heavy snow  (thunder snow reports near Jackson), dc and Baltimore certainly can as well. The radar is looking pretty good too. Should be plenty of qpf along the 95 corridor with a storm tracking right off the coast. Appear to have some gulf interaction occurring as well.   
 

We saw a similar temperature drop and changeover to snow just a few weeks ago if I’m not mistaken.  My temp is down over 3 degrees in the past hour now that we’re seeing some showers pass through. 42. 10 degrees seems a long way away, but it’s snowing less than 80 miles from my house and temps are crashing like a rock not far behind the leaning edge of the precip. 

I believe that you’re in good shape but we’ve seen time and time again this winter that lower elevations seems to lag with the cold push and finally getting cold enough. I recognize this storm is a little different, but the theme of winter still likely holds true for lower elevations with a little lag in temperatures falling. Still 48 here, I doubt I get to freezing before 11am ish

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Baltimore will definitely struggle more than say my area to changeover (that’s not just a seasonal theme… it’s an always theme) but all it will take is a few hours of heavy snow to verify the advisory on grassy and colder surfaces  - even downtown. Low elevations west and southwest of here have been changing over quickly. Ground reports on twitter have pretty much uniformly been that a clean rain to snow transition is occurring after temps crash rapidly. You could be right, but I don’t think Baltimore or DC struggle all that hard given the strength of the front.  

IMO, based on the radar, the 95 corridor will likely make up for some of the time lost to temps with heavier precip returns once things do changeover. 
 

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I believe that you’re in good shape but we’ve seen time and time again this winter that lower elevations seems to lag with the cold push and finally getting cold enough. I recognize this storm is a little different, but the theme of winter still likely holds true for lower elevations with a little lag in temperatures falling. Still 48 here, I doubt I get to freezing before 10-11am ish

 

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Temp continues to fall. 41.5 degrees

intermittently raining. WSW hoisted for 3-6 I’d honestly be elated to get an inch or two with a few hours of heavy snow and 40-50mph wind gusts. Anything more is a bonus. 

Rain / snow line is getting close. Currently running from Martinsburg down to Staunton    

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I like the look of this window for my yard. Some of that is rain and then sleety verbatim on the 6z GFS, but temps are crashing during this time and it might be hanging onto a warm layer aloft that could be overcome with the heavier precip. If its a tad colder later in this period I might end up with 3" instead of an inch or so.

1647097200-UowFZUZnY10.png

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