TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Always the last min pull back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Always the last min pull back. We didn't continue the uptrend right to gametime, but let's think about what this looked like even a day or so ago and then look at the current EURO run, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Below freezing now. Cold heading east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Latest HRDPS has almost all of us getting mauled between 14-17z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Can’t help but Iove that DC and Baltimore will likely fair better than NYC and Boston with this storm. In march nonetheless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Below freezing now. Cold heading east. The cold is there, @Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 5z HRRR has 0.3-0.4” precip after the changeover for many of us near 95. That number is fairly consistent across the models. A wind blown 2-3” is looking decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Haven't had time to really look at things up until recently due to a multitude of reasons. Taking a peek at things, here's my one and only call for the storm. Hopefully you guys get a nice pasting tomorrow. I'll check in later in the day after I'm done sleeping. Currently on mid shifts. Enjoy the snow y'all Snowfall Forecast 1-3" for the metros 2-4" for the nearby burbs 4-6" for northern MoCo/Western HoCo up through Carroll County into the Hereford Zone of Balt Co (Areas below 700') 2-5" for rest of HoCo up through southern half of Balt Co 5-8" for areas over 700' along Parrs Ridge including Damascus/Mt Airy/Manchester. 4-7" for all of Frederick/Washington Counties 4-6" for Loudoun Co 2-4" for Fairfax Co 2-4" Northern Harford Co 1-3" Southern Harford Co 3-6" for Winchester up through the WV Panhandle. Iso to 7" on higher ridges 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 WB 6Z HRRR has temps at freezing by 8 am NW burbs, 10 am DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 WB 6Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Definitely a step back for the metros on the latest HRRR as far as precip totals after the changeover is concerned versus yesterdays runs. Not a huge difference up here in far N&W areas, but it’s a fairly sizable difference in Baltimore / DC from the naked eye. 00z HRDPS was similar to its previous runs. Gets the cold in there a bit faster than the HRRR and heavier returns hang back to allow some hours of very heavy snow around 14-17z with 5+“ totals near dc / bal proper …. We’re so close. We’ve got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 6z Nam still a smashing NW with the 95 screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 NAM better than 0z for DC..no more dry slot thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: 6z Nam still a smashing NW with the 95 screw zone. wha? Are you looking at the right run? There is no screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: wha? Are you looking at the right run? There is no screw zone From the map I am looking at there’s 6”+ NW of dc 3-4” over dc then 5-6” se of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Maybe I'm crazy but to go 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: From the map I am looking at there’s 6”+ NW of dc 3-4” over dc then 5-6” se of dc. Pivotal? Because NW actually got drier vs 0z. DC went from 3 on 0z to 4 inches at 6z. But meh...don't think it changes the consensus forecast. I think LWX has it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Maybe I'm crazy but to go Pivotal? Because NW actually got drier vs 0z. DC went from 3 on 0z to 4 inches at 6z. But meh...don't think it changes the consensus forecast. I think LWX has it right. Tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Unfortunately, WB 3K NAM is not good for DC, immediate suburbs, more sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Temps take longer to fall below freezing in immediate suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- 319 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north-central Maryland as well as western Loudoun County in Virginia and northern Fauquier County in Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon. Rain will change to snow between 7 AM and 9 AM this morning. A band of moderate to heavy snow is most likely through late this morning before tapering off to a lighter snow early this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may be reduced to below one- quarter mile at times. Brief near blizzard conditions are possible. Snowfall rates around one to two inches per hour are expected this morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Finally got our warnings lol. Not sure why not just blizzard warning. Text has 45-55mph wind gusts. Pretty much blizzard without the warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Finally got our warnings lol. Not sure why not just blizzard warning. Text has 45-55mph wind gusts. Pretty much blizzard without the warning. A Winter Storm Warning indicates that heavy snow of at least 6 inches in 12 hours, or at least 8 inches in 24 hours, is expected. It can also be issued if sleet accumulation will be at least half an inch. A Blizzard Warning indicates that blizzard conditions (low visibility of less than 1/4 mile due to falling and/or blowing snow, and winds at least 35 mph) are expected for at least 3 hours. Source NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Low is in western NC tracking towards central VA and should pass about 30-50 miles southeast of DCA by 12-13z. Expect snow to begin in DC and BAL around 0730h EST. Thunder-sleet likely around 0600-0730h. If you follow golf, you'll know they are fearing the potential of severe storms around JAX around 9 a.m. and this satellite image shows them developing over the eastern Gulf. Link will probably be current at any time you might be reading this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Sweet. A 3-6” warning instead of a 3-5” advisory! Must mean…. well… nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Rain; 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Makes sense that the cold push probably won’t be as fast/strong as models have been indicating…it’s been the case all winter. While still likely a fun morning, I’d be surprised if Baltimore metro saw more than 2” or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Makes sense that the cold push probably won’t be as fast/strong as models have been indicating…it’s been the case all winter. While still likely a fun morning, I’d be surprised if Baltimore metro saw more than 2” or so. This pessimism is very unusual from you. Are you ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Not even an advisory here so I wont even bother looking out the window today. If I end up with a couple inches it won't count. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not even an advisory here so I wont even bother looking out the window today. If I end up with a couple inches it won't count. Doesn’t count unless it’s perfectly predicted by NWS or your favorite model first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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