Ji Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 blahThe 00z is already out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, The Dude said: It seemed like inflation was hitting him hard. As always, thanks for the lol 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d say you’re getting reading to see pinks start lighting up the map I’m surprised the ridge west of Harrisonburg isn’t warned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Congrats on 2-4 inches snow, and 45-55 mph NW winds to go along with it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC meso analysis starting to pick up on the good frontogenetic forcing developing over the TN River Valley. There are reports from some mets on Twitter that rates are upwards of 1" - 1.5" under the band in SW TN. A good sign. Its gonna overperform. In fact, it already is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Hi-Res FV3 took a slight step backward but still pretty decent for everyone, favored zones favored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: I hear Tom Petty singing freee fallin! Boulder, CO style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 The last time the Blue Ridge (and DC/Baltimore for that matter) was under a Blizzard Warning was 6 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Hi-Res FV3 took a slight step backward but still pretty decent for everyone, favored zones favored.Here we go 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hi-Res FV3 took a slight step backward but still pretty decent for everyone, favored zones favored. Here we go The NAM and the FV3 hires. Two of my favorite toss models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC meso analysis starting to pick up on the good frontogenetic forcing developing over the TN River Valley. There are reports from some mets on Twitter that rates are upwards of 1" - 1.5" under the band in SW TN. A good sign. Ground truth looks great so far. Evolution happening as expected. Perhaps a tad more robust than I expected at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 The PA counties along the M/D line just got warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: The PA counties along the M/D line just got warned. They’ve been warned all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hi-Res FV3 took a slight step backward but still pretty decent for everyone, favored zones favored. Here we go Here we go, what? The hi res FV3 uses the old GFS. Who cares if it stepped back a bit. It’s not a trend setter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: The PA counties along the M/D line just got warned. They were upgraded by CTP this afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: They’ve been warned all day. Oh hmm whoops. I thought I saw earlier it was just a watch all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The last time the Blue Ridge (and DC/Baltimore for that matter) was under a Blizzard Warning was 6 years ago. Wonder what occurred just over 6 years ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Oh hmm whoops. I thought I saw earlier it was just a watch all day. It was a watch until an hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: It was a watch until an hour ago Wrong. It was upgraded to warning around noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Wrong. It was upgraded to warning around noon. You can see the warning info in thier disco from 1pm if you want to go look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Wrong. It was upgraded to warning around noon. I live in York county and it was definitely around noon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Wonder what occurred just over 6 years ago! Hmmm, my memory is vague here, what are you referring to exactly??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Here's my wag, I think many will get upgraded to Warning as total snow depths are upgraded to 5 or 6 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Join in the Zoom chat! @psuhoffman is live and dazzling us with his knowledge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Just now, Jebman said: Here's my wag, I think many will get upgraded to Warning as total snow depths are upgraded to 5 or 6 inches. I can easily see the northern MD counties near the PA line getting upgraded. And maybe the western VA counties too. Not sure of the remainder of the advisory area but we'll see! Either way, it should be fun tomorrow I hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 0z HRW WRF 2 (I know, not a great model blah blah) with roughly 6-8 hours of accumulating snow after the changeover depending on location. It and the HRRR have been extremely consistent all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 RGEM took a nice step towards a snowier solution for the metro. Finally moved some of the heavier stuff east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 RGEM improved for 80% for most of the area along 95 and inside the Beltways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 00z NAM appears to remove and potential warm layer at 800mb. Would promote a "clean" transition from rain to snow. Definitely In line with ground truth and current OBS. Folks on Facebook and twitter down south are pretty much indicating a clean and quick transition over to heavy snow from rain. (Thunder snow reports as well) To me, likely means models like the NAM were overdoing the sleet aspect of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 45/Light Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: RGEM took a nice step towards a snowier solution for the metro. Finally moved some of the heavier stuff east. Add it to the list of models printing 6” IMBY. Not sure I’ve ever seen so many models agree on me seeing WSW criteria while I have an advisory up. Oh well. It’s a good thing being under an advisory vs WSW vs blizzard warning means absolutely nothing as it pertains to the final outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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