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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


Weather Will
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32 minutes ago, The Dude said:

It seemed like inflation was hitting him hard.

As always, thanks for the lol

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d say you’re getting reading to see pinks start lighting up the map 

I’m surprised the ridge west of Harrisonburg isn’t warned 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC meso analysis starting to pick up on the good frontogenetic forcing developing over the TN River Valley. There are reports from some mets on Twitter that rates are upwards of 1" - 1.5" under the band in SW TN. A good sign. 

Its gonna overperform. In fact, it already is.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:
Hi-Res FV3 took a slight step backward but still pretty decent for everyone, favored zones favored.

Here we go

The NAM and the FV3 hires. Two of my favorite toss models.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC meso analysis starting to pick up on the good frontogenetic forcing developing over the TN River Valley. There are reports from some mets on Twitter that rates are upwards of 1" - 1.5" under the band in SW TN. A good sign. 

Ground truth looks great so far. Evolution happening as expected. Perhaps a tad more robust than I expected at this juncture 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:
Hi-Res FV3 took a slight step backward but still pretty decent for everyone, favored zones favored.

Here we go

Here we go, what? The hi res FV3 uses the old GFS. Who cares if it stepped back a bit. It’s not a trend setter lol 

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Just now, Jebman said:

Here's my wag, I think many will get upgraded to Warning as total snow depths are upgraded to 5 or 6 inches.

I can easily see the northern MD counties near the PA line getting upgraded.  And maybe the western VA counties too.  Not sure of the remainder of the advisory area but we'll see!  Either way, it should be fun tomorrow I hope!!!

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50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z NAM appears to remove and potential warm layer at 800mb. Would promote a "clean" transition from rain to snow.

Definitely In line with ground truth and current OBS. Folks on Facebook and twitter down south are pretty much  indicating a clean and quick transition over to heavy snow from rain. (Thunder snow reports as well) To me, likely means models like the NAM were overdoing the sleet aspect of this storm.  

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

RGEM took a nice step towards a snowier solution for the metro. Finally moved some of the heavier stuff east.

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Add it to the list of models printing 6” IMBY. Not sure I’ve ever seen so many models agree on me seeing WSW criteria while I have an advisory up. Oh well. It’s a good thing  being under an advisory vs WSW vs blizzard warning means absolutely nothing as it pertains to the final outcome. 

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