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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
I was supposed to go to snowshoe tonight with the kids. Decided to stay here for the storm and go tomorrow evening. Kids would rather play in the snow here anyways, it will be too windy to ski comfortably tomorrow, and I think it’s going to be a better even here!  Snowshoe MIGHT end up with a higher total if they get some decent upslope but the more dynamic event will be here Imo. 

Still waiting for your what can go wrong post lol

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
I was supposed to go to snowshoe tonight with the kids. Decided to stay here for the storm and go tomorrow evening. Kids would rather play in the snow here anyways, it will be too windy to ski comfortably tomorrow, and I think it’s going to be a better even here!  Snowshoe MIGHT end up with a higher total if they get some decent upslope but the more dynamic event will be here Imo. 

Still waiting for your what can go wrong post lol

I think those are only for 10-12+ inchers :lol: But really it seems like this one is more straightforward.

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There is no reason I know to think this will be a low ratio snow from the standpoint of what is actually falling. Accumulation may be a different story. You could have powder falling onto warm surfaces that would turn to mush. Doesn’t make it a low ratio snow IMO

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

I wonder if this sneaky event will give us more than the march 2001 blizzard. Would be wild if dc gets close to the snowfall amount of march 1993

Superstorm 1993 also happened on a Saturday. 13 inches out here in Clifton, Virginia. I doubt we get close to that but 6 would be special storm.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re going to drive yourself crazy if you pay attention to every hourly hrrr wobble. God help us all when the new NAM replacement and short range ensemble system go live and are both hourly!  

Storm threads are going to be unreadable

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Driving out to Deep Creek now. On 270, easily the worst highway in the world. Why haven’t they added lanes north of Clarksburg? 
 

anways hope everyone scores snow tomorrow.  Should be some fun weather at least. 

Wave at Meadow Mountain for me as you pass by.  So jealous I miss out on this one.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re going to drive yourself crazy if you pay attention to every hourly hrrr wobble. God help us all when the new NAM replacement and short range ensemble system go live and are both hourly!  

True….actually the HRRR has been pretty consistent giving me 6 inches plus.   It would be the biggest snowfall of the season in SW Frederick, MD.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think we get much rain. Most of the precip is behind the front. 

Ah, thanks. Haven’t followed it at all until today, even then at arms length. First time I’ve looked at a model in weeks lol

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

If 23z hrrr is to be believed (lol), out of my .7 qpf, only .1 is pure rain

We have one thing going in our favor with this event in that we're seeing fresh artic air being injected into this event and it's not just evaporational cooling trying to overcome a cruddy airmass.

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29 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Ok so timing wise, rain changes to snow early am, then blizzard 8-11am, then snow+ after that until late afternoon? Then low teens/single digits tomorrow night? Also, 40-50mph winds?

Is this about right? :weenie:

A little bit o' Superstorm, a little bit o' Feb 14 2015, a little bit o' ...

Wasn't there a storm in March of 1984 that was real dynamic around here and dropped a few inches of snow along with very strong winds? Same storm that caused the Carolinas tornado outbreak that killed dozens (was one of my earliest severe weather memories, I was in Columbia SC visiting relatives with my parents on my school break at the time. I'll never forget looking to the northwest at this ungodly huge supercell.) 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re going to have to put in some sort of ground rules when that happens or you’re right it will probably be a train wreck. 

Why does anybody care? Ain’t like it’s some scientific paper we’re writing here. This is about people’s excitement and love of snow. How about we just have fun?

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22 minutes ago, mappy said:

Don’t think they can because it starts as rain?

Down here, likely.  But that hasn't stopped them before.  It feels like the people that brine have a sadistic side to them knowing if they put it down extra heavy then cars look like pop tarts on wheels.  Frosted pop tarts that is.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why does anybody care? Ain’t like it’s some scientific paper we’re writing here. This is about people’s excitement and love of snow. How about we just have fun?

 

I think because the obsessing over every wobble of the short terms models WHILE THE EVENT IS GOING ON is already tedious as ****. Before even more short term modeling comes on board. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why does anybody care? Ain’t like it’s some scientific paper we’re writing here. This is about people’s excitement and love of snow. How about we just have fun?

We will see. I predict it won’t be fun having to read through 3 pages of trolls causing freak outs after every hourly hiccup run. I hope I’m wrong. Maybe we’re ready. But I have my doubts. 

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

 

I think because the obsessing over every wobble of the short terms models WHILE THE EVENT IS GOING ON is already tedious as ****. Before even more short term modeling comes on board. 

I just skip right over those posts. Doesn’t affect me at all.

Im gonna be enjoying the snow and the fun here at the same time. I won’t be reading tomorrow’s postings trying to glean some nugget of meteorological science.

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3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Down here, likely.  But that hasn't stopped them before.  It feels like the people that brine have a sadistic side to them knowing if they put it down extra heavy then cars look like pop tarts on wheels.  Frosted pop tarts that is.

It should be made illegal. Seriously 

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

When it is this close to game time don't we have models coming out roughly every freakin hour anyways?  This is what we do.  Having one more hourly model is a warrant "ground rules" lol come on man.

49/41

 as cold advection in the wake
of the front will be exceptionally strong through a deep layer.

 

 

 

Again we will see. The hrrr only goes to 18 hours. If the new system goes to 60 or 84 like the NAM…well people will be like….

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by the time the storm gets here!  

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