TSSN+ Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Lucy was told to pack her bags and was sent down to the minors for this event. No punts allowed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Y’all tell me how in mid-March we get a-trending blizzard potential up to start time on models but in Jan/Feb, we couldn’t buy a 50 miles shift 180 hours out… “Wavelengths” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Has anyone asked IronTy if this is even possible? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Y’all tell me how in mid-March we get a-trending blizzard potential up to start time on models but in Jan/Feb, we couldn’t buy a 50 miles shift 180 hours out… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: You can have blizzard conditions without any snow falling at all. It is all about visibility. Oh yeah I wasn't disagreeing with that at all--just giving a theory as to why 3-inch blizzard seems weird despite being scientifically correct, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 At this point.. pretty much no major model shows MBY getting less than 4-6” in under 8 hours. I taketh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 WB 18Z GFS…. Off the scale cold anomaly on Sunday am… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, George BM said: from LWX afternoon disco: The combination of moderate to heavy snowfall and very high winds could produce localized near blizzard conditions tomorrow morning, making conditions very hazardous for travel. A Blizzard Warning was considered, but confidence wasn`t high enough in the quarter mile visibility requirement being met for three hours straight. Brief snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour can`t be ruled out for within the aforementioned intense frontogenetic snowfall band tomorrow morning. The greatest opportunity for this to occur in the metro areas would be between 8 and 11 AM. Steady snow will gradually wind down from west to east during the early to middle portions of tomorrow afternoon. so they chose a winter weather advisory--but blizzard warning was considered. Thats like someone going to Ruth Chris steak house and ordering the filet of fish sandwhich 3 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: SV is some shit how far have we come? this is the 18z GFS 2 days ago for 12z Saturday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Somebody chime in here because yall are quiet and now I'm thinking I'm reading an old map or some shit. This can't be right You're reading an old map. Well, not really. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: so they chose a winter weather advisory--but blizzard warning was considered. Thats like someone going to Ruth Chris steak house and ordering the filet of fish sandwhich The problem with the blizzard warning is that most people outside of our group don’t know what that means and assume it’s 2 feet of snow. But I agree they could’ve gone with the winter storm warning…. Maybe they’re not that confident and it probably won’t reach 5 inches Maybe they’re not that confident and it probably won’t reach 5 inches who knows who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: SV is some shit why does it say 15:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The @losetoa6 storm! We should be money for this one! Classic march setup for our latitude to cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The problem with the blizzard warning is that most people outside of our group don’t know what that means and assume it’s 2 feet of snow. But I agree they could’ve gone with the winter storm warning…. Maybe they’re not that confident and it probably won’t reach 5 inches Maybe they’re not that confident and it probably won’t reach 5 inches who knows who knows if you issue a winter storm warning and we get 4 inches...nobody will care. And it happens all the time. But when you issue a winter weather advisory after considering a blizzard warning and most models are showing 4-6 inches of of snow..it dosent make any sense. just give me my damn winter storm warning! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 WRF-ARW — add it to the list. Very similar outcome to other mesos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Ji will see the back edge before it even snows 1 flake. This thing is hauling A#$. Should be a pretty intense 4 to 6 hours ! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 FV3-Hires also gets it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: if you issue a winter storm warning and we get 4 inches...nobody will care. And it happens all the time. But when you issue a winter weather advisory after considering a blizzard warning and most models are showing 4-6 inches of of snow..it dosent make any sense. just give me my damn winter storm warning! They can always upgrade. It’s a slippery slope for them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I know a lot of folks either focus on far NW areas or the immediate metro areas….but keep in mind that the area of best lift often occurs by the rain/snow line. Highly possible the jackpot ends up being somewhere between Winchester and Baltimore or DC. MoCo & HoCo could be in a prime position as far as being cold enough for snow and far enough SE for more intense precip. Fairly confident someone is going to successfully walk that tight rope and see 6-8 out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I’m thinking 1/2” to 1” with slushy accumulation on grass. For everyone else. I have to stick to my 6-8” call for here. Made days ago!!! Which people laughed at!!!! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Also In Lwx disco Snow Squall Warnings may be needed to the east of the mountains tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. These snow squalls may produce brief whiteout conditions along with high winds, making travel treacherous. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m thinking 1/2” to 1” with slushy accumulation on grass. For everyone else. I have to stick to my 6-8” call for here. Made days ago!!! Which people laughed at!!!! Lol finally--a non cape storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ji said: why does it say 15:1 ratio? 15.1. Highest snow amount on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i admire your commitment to public safety. Lol, and I'm pretty sure Ji and others here admire your commitment to public snarkery. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m thinking 1/2” to 1” with slushy accumulation on grass. For everyone else. I have to stick to my 6-8” call for here. Made days ago!!! Which people laughed at!!!! Lol Huh? 0.5-1” for who? Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Has anyone asked IronTy if this is even possible? There's gonna be a lot of slow singing and flower bringing when this event disappoints. It's over. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: There's gonna be a lot of slow singing and flower bringing when this event disappoints. It's over. 80% of the fun is the digital snow maps and speculation. Pretty wild that after 80 degrees sunday we talking about a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 80% of the fun is the digital snow maps and speculation. Pretty wild that after 80 degrees sunday we talking about a blizzard I asked my wife what she thought and she said that happiness equals reality minus expectations. And then she told me to leave her alone and stop wasting her time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, jayyy said: I know a lot of folks either focus on far NW areas or the immediate metro areas….but keep in mind that the area of best lift often occurs by the rain/snow line. Highly possible the jackpot ends up being somewhere between Winchester and Baltimore or DC. MoCo & HoCo could be in a prime position as far as being cold enough for snow and far enough SE for more intense precip. Fairly confident someone is going to successfully walk that tight rope and see 6-8 out of this. You rang? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 now comes the hard part...we got to drop 32 degrees by 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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