stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo. The dreaded Grey. I'll allow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, H2O said: Florida Ave might cave Actually Conn/ Ave is higher elevation where I am. I'm going to get 6 to 12" due to my 300 ft elevation. Can barely breathe up here. Thinner air. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 W borderline temps I agree rooting for a bit of sleet early on will actually enhance accumulations by putting down a base to help overcome daylight and mid March 16 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Oy gevalt!! Put the poster on Ignore or just stop responding to the posts. It's just a sad attempt at getting attention. I feel like I say this every year multiple times, but people can't stop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo. I’d rather this conservative climo look with some upside potential thank you sir great map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's slightly less impressive but still a great run. gross. Ill stick with the more fun high res maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO why is the 12z euro always so dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: why is the 12z euro always so dry? It’s the 8th wonder of the world. Wait that’s Andre the Giant. 9th wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, mattie g said: Put the poster on Ignore or just stop responding to the posts. It's just a sad attempt at getting attention. I feel like I say this every year multiple times, but people can't stop. This. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Serious question (and I am not complaining- I am excited about any snow tomorrow): Why does NWS have Staunton in the 1-2" range on their expected snowfall map, but has a 66% probability that Staunton will get over 2"? Aren't those two things mutually exclusive? They both have the 10:26 am time stamp. As a teacher of math, I am befuddled by this. 63 degrees here NW of Staunton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: PSU... 1 hour ago, Ji said: and if i dont get a winter storm warning..im going to lose my mind 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Deep Thoughts by PSU 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 extra hour of sunlight got ingested by models finally 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Decent odds of a 3" snowstorm (10:1, at least) for much of the subforum, per the EPS. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The first one ESPECIALLY--my whole position about digital snow and snow maps, lol You can't lose what ya never had!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: The first one ESPECIALLY--my whole position about digital snow and snow maps, lol You can't lose what ya never had!! There's always the Murphy's Law that goes, "You can't win, you can't break even, you can't even quit the game!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Actually Conn/ Ave is higher elevation where I am. I'm going to get 6 to 12" due to my 300 ft elevation. Can barely breathe up here. Thinner air. Wouldn’t 6” be over your head? Good thing you got the sled dogs. Saves on gas too!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Serious question (and I am not complaining- I am excited about any snow tomorrow): Why does NWS have Staunton in the 1-2" range on their expected snowfall map, but has a 66% probability that Staunton will get over 2"? Aren't those two things mutually exclusive? They both have the 10:26 am time stamp. As a teacher of math, I am befuddled by this. 63 degrees here NW of Staunton The probability values are an experimental automated product obtained using output from an ensemble of models. It is one of several tools including models, satellite, radar, and observations used by forecasters when obtaining the forecast value of 1-2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Decent odds of a 3" snowstorm (10:1, at least) for much of the subforum, per the EPS. Yellowed and light-oranged!! Been awhile since I've seen those probabilities where I'm at, this close in to an event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Would this be a bad time to say any snow I get just adds to my 100% seasonal snowfall totals? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Now I'm wondering if the icing over affects the Sunday AM commute at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Wouldn’t 6” be over your head? Good thing you got the sled dogs. Saves on gas too!! I think you mean over his shoulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I think you mean over his shoulder. no, he meant head. Randy is short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Sweet! North side of my yard is in the @Ellinwood blue! South side is eating grey. Got to move the snowboard tonight… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z HRRR looks juced thru 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Sweet! North side of my yard is in the @Ellinwood blue! South side is eating grey. Got to move the snowboard tonight… You might hecks yourself if you do. Stick with where it is and let the March sun angle fall where it may 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 My main concern is in half dozen instances in last two years temps have been 3-5 degrees too warm from model predictions. This time we are at least not dropping from 70+ but will temps and thus timing for changeover be well off once again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, H2O said: You might hecks yourself if you do. Stick with where it is and let the March sun angle fall where it may Luckily this is happening tomorrow... if it was Sunday that extra hour of daylight would screw us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 WB 18Z HRRR at 8 am 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Ripping at 9am - temps below zero along and east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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