mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 whelp. 3-5 with blizzard conditions. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: whelp. 3-5 with blizzard conditions. This one is a little exciting to be honest. Maybe not a lot of snow, but combined with wind....different 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Close, but duration is unlikely to qualify ... Blizzard Warning criteria: Issued for frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more Oh what the hooey…just issue the Blizzard warning…3 shmee… Let’s go out in style with a shade of red we don’t often see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 17 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: Oh what the hooey…just issue the Blizzard warning…3 shmee… Let’s go out in style with a shade of red we don’t often see There's a small chance we could see one. Odds are heavily against..but I mean..it's non zero 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: This one is a little exciting to be honest. Maybe not a lot of snow, but combined with wind....different 3-4 is a lot to me. Half that in March is a gift from snowmeiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: On the fence of whether I'll allow it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it's all about getting HRDPS'd these days. but I'd count the 6" the NAM gives most of us as being NAM'd anyway Completely understand the post, but the NAM doesn't give most of us 6". This is definitely a case to look at the snow depth maps, as the 10:1 is probably an overall too generous ratio, and the model is definitely showing some sleet which gets tallied in. There are flaws with the snow depth maps, but they (right or wrong) best represent what the model is actually predicting will be on the ground. That said, even the snow depth maps are 3-4" for many. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 8 to 11 is 3 hours, but I get what you are saying. Don't think we'll quite make it. i mean, technically, if the NAMs are right, I think it would probably be -- below is the 3hr snowfall + gust panels for 8-11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You forgot to include the random, wandering black line that has no reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This one is a little exciting to be honest. Maybe not a lot of snow, but combined with wind....different I am 100% sure I will be excited about it tomorrow morning when its happening. Its just so nice outside right now and I have been craving the warmth. SAD is no joke lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can you post a start time map too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: the 3k backs up the 12k... when do we start buying into a 2-4"+ storm for everyone (outside SE MD/DE) Wow! Big change from he 3km NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 8 to 11 is 3 hours, but I get what you are saying. Don't think we'll quite make it. Yeah, probably won't meet the "technical" definition. But I'd think near-blizzard conditions are possible in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Second-to-last first call for tomorrow's event: 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Can you post a start time map too? I added start times, wind vectors, and DC escape routes just to make it more clear! 1 1 23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: I added start times, wind vectors, and DC escape routes just to make it more clear! Looks like a perverted Skew-T diagram. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, mappy said: whelp. 3-5 with blizzard conditions. you tried so hard to punt this event but it wasnt meant to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Second-to-last first call for tomorrow's event: you forgot the key. @mappy does not approve 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: you forgot the key. @mappy does not approve Hey...Jackson Pollock don't need no stinkin' key!! Besides, the legend is interspersed in all the mess anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 i approve of none of these maps. my eyes hurt 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 How do we get near blizzard conditions without a winter storm warning? Not enough total snow fall expected? If we get 5 inches doesn’t that meet the criteria? No one will take near blizzard conditions seriously with an advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Still some spread in track guidance but with the eastward trend on NAM and given its superior performance in other storms, inclined to boost my earlier airport predictions by about a full doubling to 3" BWI and DCA, 5" IAD. Probably 4, 5, 7 would be the upper limit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: How do we get near blizzard conditions without a winter storm warning? Not enough total snow fall expected? If we get 5 inches doesn’t that meet the criteria? they aren't mutually exclusive Winter Storm warning for 5+ over a span of some hours blizzard for 3+hrs of consistent blizzard conditions we probably miss both just barely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 You can have blizzard conditions on just a few inches of snow, blizzard is for winds. winter storm is for snow amounts 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, Roger Smith said: Still some spread in track guidance but with the eastward trend on NAM and given its superior performance in other storms, inclined to boost my earlier airport predictions by about a full doubling to 3" BWI and DCA, 5" IAD. Probably 4, 5, 7 would be the upper limit. LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: How do we get near blizzard conditions without a winter storm warning? Not enough total snow fall expected? If we get 5 inches doesn’t that meet the criteria? No one will take near blizzard conditions seriously with an advisory. there is no accumulation criteria for Blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Im not in until the ICON jumps on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: You can have blizzard conditions on just a few inches of snow, blizzard is for winds. winter storm is for snow amounts Thanks, got it. I think when I was younger 4 inches was enough for a winter storm warning at least inside the Beltway, but maybe I am not remembering correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Second-to-last first call for tomorrow's event: Doundounba snow dance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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