HighStakes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:24 PM, psuhoffman said: @HighStakes March is where it’s at up here. In my 15 years here we’ve had a warning level March snow 10 times. Feb is skewed by that ~70” month in 2010 but if you take that one year out March is by far our snowiest month! Expand No Doubt! I've liked this set up for tomorrow all along. If we fail then it's probably because the heavier band shifts east a bit not because the cold is delayed. This isn't some marginal crappy rate dependent cold coming into our area. That's my take, I've been wrong plenty times but I think tomorrow works out for a lot of us. For our part of the sub forum specifically this is a classic March set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Becoming locked in model wise….now we wait! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 WB 12Z GFS; remember GFS was not on board until recently. Compare to 12Z yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Hope it works, my loyal Labrador companion has a failing liver and I fear this will be her last snow, so bring it for her. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:50 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Expand GFS is slower with the transition to snow and has more sleet than the models that are really slamming us. Good news is I trust the GFS the least to get those details right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:49 PM, HighStakes said: No Doubt! I've liked this set up for tomorrow all along. If we fail then it's probably because the heavier band shifts east a bit not because the cold is delayed. This isn't some marginal crappy rate dependent cold coming into our area. That's my take, I've been wrong plenty times but I think tomorrow works out for a lot of us. For our part of the sub forum specifically this is a classic March set up. Expand I agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:11 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll have some of whatever the RGEM is smoking Expand Boy I sure would love for that to be right but it always tends to overdo literally everything so there’s that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:56 PM, Buddy1987 said: Boy I sure would love for that to be right but it always tends to overdo literally everything so there’s that as well. Expand Ah so that's what RGEM stands for! Really Good Exaggeration Model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:53 PM, psuhoffman said: I agree Expand I see you travel to snowshoe quite often. Im going to timberline this evening to ski tomorrow and Sunday. Do you think they should do pretty well? 6-8" or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR looked nice 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:52 PM, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is slower with the transition to snow and has more sleet than the models that are really slamming us. Good news is I trust the GFS the least to get those details right. Expand GFS has trended colder (especially from its 18Z run yesterday), just looking at the 2-m temperatures at 12Z tomorrow. It's nearly freezing in the metro areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR RGEM NAM blend is a solid 6”+ storm here. I taketh. NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:09 PM, jayyy said: NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold. Expand I am sure they will update if and when needed. Their discussion earlier this morning mentioned that they wanted to assess the guidance that comes in this morning and early afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:09 PM, jayyy said: NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold. Expand The NWS and HPC may be just a tad better at this than all of us model watchers at AmWx 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:11 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: I am sure they will update if and when needed. Their discussion earlier this morning mentioned that they wanted to assess the guidance that comes in this morning and early afternoon. Expand Looking like a consensus around a solid 2-4” advisory event for the metros is building. Would like to see 12z and especially 18z continue this trend and it’s game on there IMO. Highly depends on rates once the transition occurs. For my area over to emmitsburg, Winchester, and on east to PSUland — this is shaping into a money march setup. Warnings looking likely for our tier by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:11 PM, jayyy said: HRRR RGEM NAM blend is a solid 6”+ storm here. I taketh. NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold. Expand LWX has every reason to play this storm conservatively for all of the usual reasons (March, temps chasing precip, etc). That being said, I do agree there is an above average potential for this to "boom" for us and I'm cautiously optimistic about this setup along and west of I-95. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:12 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: The NWS and HOC may be just a tad better at this than all of us model watchers at AmWx Expand LOL yeah, juuuuust a tad! I am confident they won't be keeping the forecast static from what it is currently. And will change as needed later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:14 PM, jayyy said: Looking like a consensus around a solid 2-4” advisory event for the metros is building. Would like to see 12z and especially 18z continue this trend and it’s game on there For my area over to emmitsburg, Winchester, and on east to PSUland — this is a money march setup. Expand Agree. I would hope we can score a decent, solid 2-4" event in most areas (there will be more for the N/W folks obviously). This could be a neat memorable event to see off the winter! Snow, wind, sharply falling temperatures! ETA: After this event, I'd be perfectly content to go full-on @mappy for spring!! Not that there's much choice, because there's literally nothing wintry afterward! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 A lot of wind too. Going to be a fun day tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:16 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Agree. I would hope we can score a decent, solid 2-4" event in most areas (there will be more for the N/W folks obviously). This could be a neat memorable event to see off the winter! Snow, wind, sharply falling temperatures! Expand If I manage to get 4-6” of snow in 6ish hours with rapidly crashing temps and 30-40+mph winds out of this storm… a storm that looked dead 48 hours out… in march nonetheless.. that’d be a GREAT way to send winter off, no doubt. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I’m not like the rest of you in liking wind. However, the wind will aid in creating snow covered roads. This may seem more like a Jan storm than a March storm for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR NAM Euro RGEM - all on board. Probably the combination we want on our side at this juncture (sub 24 hours). Only “hold out” of importance is the GFS, which still paints a few inches over the entire sub forum tomorrow. Barring some wild swing back in the other direction at 18z and 00z, I’m definitely liking our chances here. NW folks should be getting excited, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I've been really busy with work so I haven't had a chance to look but it seems we could see some intense snow showers/squalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:18 PM, jayyy said: If I manage to get 4-6” of snow in 6ish hours with rapidly crashing temps and 30-40+mph winds out of this storm… a storm that looked dead 48 hours out… in march nonetheless.. that’d be a GREAT way to send winter off, no doubt. Expand It's entirely possible the northern and western suburbs, especially those above say 600, 700 ft elevation, wind up with a truly impactful event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:14 PM, Eskimo Joe said: LWX has every reason to play this storm conservatively for all of the usual reasons (March, temps chasing precip, etc). That being said, I do agree there is an above average potential for this to "boom" for us and I'm cautiously optimistic about this setup along and west of I-95. Expand Same. This is a highly dynamic system, can't ask for much more at this time of year. I definitely get LWX being conservative for now and as I said, they made it clear in their discussion that they want to see the latest morning/afternoon guidance before pulling any triggers in terms of expanding the advisory area. But even still, the current forecast makes it evident that tomorrow will be a rough day out. They also did mention the likelihood of wind headlines, which is no surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 We might be underrated the wind event here guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:22 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not like the rest of you in liking wind. However, the wind will aid in creating snow covered roads. This may seem more like a Jan storm than a March storm for a while Expand Hey, we in the metros may bet biggers wind fun than snow, lol. Imma take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 9:10 AM, Ji said: On 3/11/2022 at 8:58 AM, Weather Will said: Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph.* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland as well as portions of northern Virginia.* WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow between 5 and 7 AM early Saturday morning. The steadiest snow will be through midday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may Expand Wow 2-4 is pathetic. Their snow maps were 3-5 last night and models got better Expand Dude, STFU. Please don't start this shit. Everybody is having a good time, knowing we will be limited and lucky to get even what we get. you are literally the ONLY person where being a petulant child. If I got 1 to 3, I'd be ecstatic. Just stop, seriously. Even 3 days ago, this didn't look like a decent event for most of us and you out here crying about bonus snow in March with real cold air and high winds in a dynamic system. You really need to stop. 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just for fun: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 4:30 PM, stormtracker said: Dude, STFU. Please don't start this shit. Everybody is having a good time, knowing we will be limited and lucky to get even what we get. you are literally the ONLY person where being a petulant child. If I got 1 to 3, I'd be ecstatic. Just stop, seriously. Even 3 days ago, this didn't look like a decent event for most of us and you out here crying about bonus snow in March with real cold air and high winds in a dynamic system. You really need to stop. Expand Is it possible to recommend this like 1000 times?? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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