Chris78 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Canadian’s gonna like us Yep. Don't really want to post snow maps lol but it's pretty much a wide spread 3 to 6 from DC westward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Yep. Don't really want to post snow maps lol but it's pretty much a wide spread 3 to 6 from DC westward.It’s below freezing in DC by hr39 too so a lot of it should stick just fine, especially with the rates - liking the runs tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The rap looks sweet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Negnao said: The rap looks sweet. I hear you….no maps…..we can just talk it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Will stay up for the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Will stay up for the King Thank God we're sneaking this event in just before the clock change...... 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Lol 00z GEFS mean is 3 to 4 inches in DC Snow depth is 1 to 3 on the mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 00z Ukie wasn't as great as 12z... but still 1-3/2-4 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 48 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Yep. Don't really want to post snow maps lol but it's pretty much a wide spread 3 to 6 from DC westward. I'll be that guy. Take with a grain of salt yadda yadda but I think your area will get a few inches (maybe more). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I'll be that guy. Take with a grain of salt yadda yadda but I think your area will get a few inches (maybe more). Fingers crossed. Do you think you see a foot in deep creek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I’m so glad some of you declared winter over 5 weeks ago I’d be happy with an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 EURO colder and a bit wetter thru hr38 - snowing at a solid clip in DCwidespread 1”+/hr at 39 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 wow, this run really upped the ante. gonna be 2”+ more than the previous based on 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Fingers crossed. Do you think you see a foot in deep creek? I've been slammed at work today so haven't really looked at guidance until you referenced the CMC. I'd say <6" - 20% 6-10" - 50% >10" - 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 take your pick of snow map -- I know which I'd prefer but not scoffing at the widespread 2-3" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: take your pick of snow map -- I know which I'd prefer but not scoffing at the widespread 2-3" Wow, Euro not fooling around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Didn’t think I’d see this for Westminster in mid March lol. Saturday Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 14 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Didn’t think I’d see this for Westminster in mid March lol. Saturday Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 39. Breezy, with a northwest wind 14 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.Similar language even in the close burbs… man, if we can pull off a really fun windy storm, I’d have to boost my winter grade up a whole letter. “Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between noon and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 44. Breezy, with a northwest wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 06z HRRR smokes the region (4-8 for most)... WSW criteria even into the snow depth maps 13z SAT to 17z SAT is the money time period... at 15z SAT tries for 0.2" QPF at DCA in one hour lol KDCA sounding at 12z SAT is heavy wet snow... QPF ends by around 19z. 06z HRRR shows around 0.6" QPF in the 6 hour time period between 12z and 18z for DCA 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z HRRR smokes the region (4-8 for most)... WSW criteria even into the snow depth maps 13z SAT to 17z SAT is the money time period... at 15z SAT tries for 0.2" QPF at DCA in one hour lol KDCA sounding at 12z SAT is heavy wet snow... QPF ends by around 19z. 06z HRRR shows around 0.6" QPF in the 6 hour time period between 12z and 18z for DCA So basically a weenie run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRR / Euro / RAP / CMC blend for $500 please honestly though… when do we begin to take this backend snow possibility seriously? I’d be elated at a backend 2-3” up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z 12K NAM. Heavy snow in the bal dc metro corridor as it’s pouring rain in NYC and BOS. ps - where was this low positioning during the late January blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3k nam 6Z - several hours of snow after the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 WB 6Z 3K NAM….. first time in awhile everything trending in the right direction inside 24 hours…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 WSW and WWA's coming from LWX shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: WSW and WWA's coming from LWX shortly Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun- 357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland as well as portions of northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow between 5 and 7 AM early Saturday morning. The steadiest snow will be through midday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX says WWA's may be coming soon for metros .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level trough and its associated strong cold front will approach the Appalachians through this evening. The southern stream system will begin to phase with the northern stream system, causing the trough to become more neutrally tilted while surface low pressure develops and strengthens along the front. Much of this evening may turn out dry, but rain will quickly overspread late tonight into early Saturday morning in response the cold front and its associated low pressure approaching the area. The low will rapidly intensify as it passes through the area Saturday morning along with the strong cold front. A strong northwest wind will develop behind this system, bringing in much colder air. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s ahead of the front will fall rapidly into the 20s and 30s behind the front Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon (teens and single digits along the ridge tops). The potent upper-level trough will pass through the area behind the cold front Saturday afternoon/early evening. Given the strong dynamics with the upper-level trough, this does cause an anafrontal setup, where a period of precipitation is expected to occur on the cold side of the boundary. Therefore, rain is expected to end as a period of snow for most areas. Latest guidance has shifted slightly east with the track of the surface low, hence allowing the cold air to spill in quicker. With this scenario, confidence increases for accumulating snow across most locations Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still highest over the Mountains and west of Interstate 95, but having that been said there is increasing confidence for snow accumulation along and east of Interstate 95 as well. Typically, it is difficult to get a rain changing to snow setup east of the mountains on a northwest flow in the low-levels, especially for this time of year. However, reasons for increasing confidence in this occurring are that there is Arctic air being drawn into this system behind the cold front. Also, there is stronger Fgen forcing in the 850-700mb layer behind the cold front, and there are coupling jet streaks in the upper-levels (right entrance of northern stream and left exit of southern stream). The strong dynamics suggest that a period of moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation will add to the cooling from a dynamical standpoint while the Artic air is rushing in. For these reasons, we have issued a Winter Storm Warning in the Allegheny Highlands and northern VA Blue Ridge Mountains with advisories elsewhere late Friday night into Saturday. For locations farther east (the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas), they certainly may need to be added to the advisory. However, with a slightly later start time, thinking was to re-assess with the latest information later this morning or afternoon. For along/west of the Allegheny Front, there may be a break when the synoptic snow ends around midday Saturday, but additional snow showers are expected, and some may be heavy due to an unstable atmosphere, deep boundary layer that has moisture, and temps in the DGZ. Near blizzard conditions are possible. Confidence was too low for a Blizzard Warning at this time, since it may be more localized. Strong winds are expected behind the cold front Saturday morning through at least Saturday evening. Strong cold advection coupled with rapidly rising pressure behind the cold front and a deep mixing layer suggests that 50 to 55 mph are likely across much of the area during this time. Wind headlines will likely be needed during this time. Dangerously low wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees are possible along the ridges later Saturday afternoon/Saturday night. Elsewhere, wind chills near zero are most likely west of the Blue Ridge Mountains with single digits and teens elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Snow may be heavy at times has been put in the zones... including DC metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Snow may be heavy at times has been put in the zones... including DC metro My first thread and I did not kill the storm!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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