LP08 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 GFS gets most of the area into the 20's still by 18z Saturday. That's pretty impressive if it happens. Some snow as well flying at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 GFS is about to try and dry slot the whole area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 WB 12Z GFS: At 10 an, when GFS shows sleet, all levels seem below freezing? Warm layer there somewhere EURO is not seeing…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS: At 10 an, when GFS shows sleet, all levels seem below freezing? Warm layer there somewhere EURO is not seeing…. How do those precip totals compare to prior runs? Its gonna be cold. It’s about the precip totals IMO. I’m sure that shocks nobody 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS: At 10 an, when GFS shows sleet, all levels seem below freezing? Warm layer there somewhere EURO is not seeing…. I'm wondering if it's doing that thing @high risk(I believe) mentioned where conditions *might* briefly support sleet for like 5 minutes as it transitions to snow but then the model output renders it sleeting for the whole 3hr period or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Unrelated -- FV3 Hi-Res showing that nice squall signature on the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 CMC is a nice improvement 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 UKIE is a big improvement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: CMC is a nice improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 It’s obvious that HPC is disregarding the GFS. It’s maps line up straight with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Do that with the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Do that with the UKIE Just canceled my tee time for Saturday, guess I will sit by fireplace and watch snow tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm wondering if it's doing that thing @high risk(I believe) mentioned where conditions *might* briefly support sleet for like 5 minutes as it transitions to snow but then the model output renders it sleeting for the whole 3hr period or so. Great question! The issue you mentioned might be leading to slightly higher sleet amounts than justified by the model output, but I checked the forecast soundings, and the GFS does show profiles that favor sleet for a few hours Saturday morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: Just canceled my tee time for Saturday, guess I will sit by fireplace and watch snow tv now you've done it..no snow for anyone when you cancel a tee time for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: CMC is a nice improvement 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: UKIE is a big improvement. For you, us, me, ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: For you, us, me, ??? u me and him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: now you've done it..no snow for anyone when you cancel a tee time for snow Canceled for wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s obvious that HPC is disregarding the GFS. It’s maps line up straight with the euro. euro has been on a roll lately. For the Wednesday event....in all its runs...it never had the 850 line south of us...while the NAM,GFS,etc gave us heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It is weaker so it is further southeast. I was really hoping for some late season skiing and had planned on heading to Canaan this weekend. I hope this trend stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Canceled for wind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m getting a 404, no image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For you, us, me, ??? Looked like for everyone on both. Its really only the gfs that looks iffy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m getting a 404, no image 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looked like for everyone on both. Its really only the gfs that looks iffy at this point. Your going to be worried around qpf here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Your going to be worried around qpf here soon. No doubt. Never a doubt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m not sure the UKIE can even be used. Look at the change to the west of us. That’s massive for a 12 time difference. I’ll bet the euro won’t look like this at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not sure the UKIE can even be used. Look at the change to the west of us. That’s massive for a 12 time difference. I’ll bet the euro won’t look like this at all. I agree. Seemed like in years past it would give an idea on what the Euro was going to do but not so much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: Again, for up my way, maybe in-between? There's a chance for something a little interesting up here, and since I am on 11 inches for the entire season, I am curious about it. Not everyone did well this winter. Hey I know that joke! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 EURO looks like it’ll hold. Almost looks like the seasonal SE MD/CVA jackpot might show this run too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 53 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not sure the UKIE can even be used. Look at the change to the west of us. That’s massive for a 12 time difference. I’ll bet the euro won’t look like this at all. This post aged quite badly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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