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March 12 Rain to…more rain? Maybe some snow


HoarfrostHubb
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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why would you do driveway? It’ll torch away Monday . Even tomorrow in sun pavement will melt 

I get shade on my driveway from the house. Also, there’s spots that melt and runoff into my run so I like to get that up. I may leave the end of the driveway by the road since it gets more sun.

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I realize there's a coveted hope in needling monitoring of a hopeless situation... and I hope it works out for many of you - really, seriously...

But I, for one, cannot wait until circa 2:34 PM Monday afternoon, when the temp is in process of a 30 point recovery that day, and skies will be primarily cloud free, and the wind may not be appreciably strong.   Area MOS ( FIT/ASH/BED ..which is relevant triangulum for Ayer) is 55 in MET MOS.   51 in the MAV ... but, keeping in mind, we've entered the time of year when the machine numbers tend to error cool under clear skies and zippo CAA.  

Here's the aspect that makes that day an interesting challenge for forecasting high temperatures:   snow on the ground;  decoupling Sunday night.

Of those two factors, the decoupling is the bigger.  Sunday night,  even a couple of inches of snow ( more west of course...) under the ensuing cold intrusion is probably going to decouple rather quickly. Places like Orange MA'll be 12 by dawn - probably high teens most places anyway.  That's quite the deep well to begin.  It's just that all the guidance have 850mb recovering to +2 C by late afternoon, collocating the Pike, but doing so with low mixing.   That would suggest adiabatic processing from diurnal overturning.   Not sure the adiabat gets the high... I think 925 is the BL depth, but that's +5 by 4pm, and the SA from that level supports 62-ish in the 2-meter T, so it's going to either be a huge MOS bust that day, or I'm missing something here heh... Oh, I know what it is!   Anyone actually reading this far along this tedium...  

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3 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Front just passed through,  38F and overcast. 

How is that being assessed ....?   just curious -

Front is not through here, in Ayer Mass, but I also should be on the same front as you, given to it's orientation NNE-SSW through the area.   So that's interesting.  I have been 38 all morning.   

If it ticks colder aloft, we could easily be spring cotton ball aggregates here ...so it's probably going to be an interesting day for the transition nerds - hahah

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it does look like the boundary is mid way through N CT ... not through HFD just yet -  wonder how that matches up with guidance? 

it's kind of hard to find it by wind because we're draining anyway.  But those that go west of the boundary have shed 2- 3F rather quickly when using the 'non official' Wunder sites -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it does look like the boundary is mid way through N CT ... not through HFD just yet -  wonder how that matches up with guidance? 

it's kind of hard to find it by wind because we're draining anyway.  But those that go west of the boundary have shed 2- 3F rather quickly when using the 'non official' Wunder sites -

Dropped from 43 to 38 here in 15 minutes. It moved thru 

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