PhineasC Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You and Alex might do well since a lot of the snow is on a N to NW wind....even during the synoptic snow portion and not just the upslope. Hopefully it doesn't amp back up and cause rain issues....if it doesn't, you can prob score double digits. Yeah that's a good direction here and definitely for Alex. He gets screwed a little sometimes on the east-flow events. BW needs this one really badly. Hopefully it juices up even more as we get into the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Just saw. Hmm. Lol…it’s over Johnny! You said it yourself. Scooter knows ..right? Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…it’s over Johnny! You said it yourself. Scooter knows ..right? Right? It probably is over for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Not for us but your work will That’s another 4” here. Got 3.25-3.50” from yesterday. Season trying hard to make things a tad more respectable here WOR. Be cool if it could pull it off? I’m not buying yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I wonder if yesterday's system being more amped is going to impact this weekend's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It probably is over for most. We’ll if that 06z Euro has a clue, it isn’t over out this way if that happened on Saturday afternoon… but as I just said I don’t think this season has it in it to pull that off. If 12z keeps going that way though, then it gets a lil more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I wonder if yesterday's system being more amped is going to impact this weekend's system. How so? Forcing this next one east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: We’ll if that 06z Euro has a clue, it isn’t over out this way if that happened on Saturday afternoon… but as I just said I don’t think this season has it in it to pull that off. If 12z keeps going that way though, then it gets a lil more interesting. Sure maybe we get a couple inches here or there but for the most part it’s over that’s what I mean. I’m sure they’ll be a rogue storm that melts in a day and people will be like see it’s not over! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 BOX into the winds Saturday... A deep positively tilted H5 trough stretching from Hudson Bay to Alabama develops on Sat. Out ahead of this high amplitude trough, strong SW flow will yield PWAT plume of 1.3 inches, or 99th percentile according to NAEFS ensemble situational awareness table. Strong jet dynamics (u and v wind component also at 99th percentile) acting on the anomalous moisture plume will support periods of heavy rain Saturday. Highs will be in the 40s but could be as warm as the 50s, depending on eventual track of surface low and associated warm sector (most likely southeast MA). All model guidance has surface wave rapidly intensifying as it tracks somewhere between the I-95 corridor to Cape Cod, then along or just off the Maine coast as a sub 970 mb low. The low continues to deepen over the Maritimes Sat night. This rapid intensification, combined with strong cold air advection on the backside and impressive pressure rise/fall couplet, will support strong to perhaps damaging winds as the low exits southern New England late Sat into Sat night. With 925mb temps rising to +10 to +13C across southeast MA and RI on Sat afternoon, the potential of damaging pre-frontal winds mixing to the surface would appear to hinge on the amount of insolation with best chance of damaging winds across the MA coastal plains away from the immediate south coast (SSTs are still in the lower 40s). NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings show winds at the top of the mixed layer at mid 40 to low 50 kts. In addition, rain likely ends as a period of snow from west to east late Sat/Sat evening, with some minor accumulations possible across the interior higher elevation across the East Slopes and northern Worcester Hills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Sure maybe we get a couple inches here or there but for the most part it’s over that’s what I mean. I’m sure they’ll be a rogue storm that melts in a day and people will be like see it’s not over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How so? Forcing this next one east? Yes lowering heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Kind of weird how flat the ARW members are on the SREFs. I usually expect them to be jackpotting Ottawa at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Metfan Blutarski? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Kind of weird how flat the ARW members are on the SREFs. I usually expect them to be jackpotting Ottawa at this point. 12z NAM looks flatter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: 12z NAM looks flatter too. Sure does...that's prob gonna get at least western SNE with some accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Kind of cool to see the Deep South getting snow. Somewhere down there Winter Wolf's relatives are saying it's not over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Tilting more favorably... baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We’ll if that 06z Euro has a clue, it isn’t over out this way if that happened on Saturday afternoon… but as I just said I don’t think this season has it in it to pull that off. If 12z keeps going that way though, then it gets a lil more interesting. still not bought into plowable for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kind of weird how flat the ARW members are on the SREFs. I usually expect them to be jackpotting Ottawa at this point. Don't do it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 NAM is gonna be violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How so? Forcing this next one east? Yes, if it was more amped than forecasted, heights wouldn't be able to recover to the degree previously forecasted in advance of this weekend deal. I mean, its not going to turn it into a KU, but it could mean a couple of inches of paste at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 That's a shift east from the 06z run on the 12z Nam, That front is further east over NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z 12k NAM with an annoying dryslot thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Nice snower for us hillbillies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 12z 12k NAM with an annoying dryslot thing NAM likes you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 More strung out along the front more SWFE looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM likes you. Yeah... it is dropping 5" through 54 hours on me noggin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Hippie and Mitch might do well in addition to the high country folk like PF and Phin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 That doesn’t sound violent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 HA, we all change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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