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March 12 Rain to…more rain? Maybe some snow


HoarfrostHubb
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43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Last snow of the season for everyone. Try to cherish this one.:weep:

We all said this on Wednesday too, me included …nobody really knows that.  Next week it gets nice and mild, but after that it’s anybody's guess.    This thing coming tomorrow was a wind swept rain two days ago, with damaging winds after that.  Now it’s snow…the trend has been pretty impressive after all of us said it was over.    

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On the other hand, the other models are pretty good here in terms of liquid:

06z RGEM: 1.33"

06z 3k: 1.4"

06z 12k: 1.2"

00z FV3: 1.35"

06z GFS: 1.27"

00z GGEM: 1.26"

Nice consistency. Euro is definitely the outlier here.

This paints an event with 10-12 for the synoptic piece and then some backside upslope, maybe 3-5.

 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely colder on nam  and gfs. A little less dynamic overall so big totals aren’t happening, but could be an advisory deal into ORH county and adjacent into CT. It’s such a weird setup so low confidence. 

The reason I have very little interest in this is because its one of those "no win" scenarios....some of the weenies may get caught chasing a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow solution that really doesn't exist. If its a stronger amplified low, you rain....maybe end as an inch or two of snow. If it goes east, its because there is less N stream energy available, and while a larger ratio of precip is frozen, there is less of it...so you still get a 1-3" type of deal.

There really isn't much worth monitoring east of the Berkshires and that has been apparent for several days.

Most potential involving cold fronts is like that.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reason I have very little interest in this is because its one of those "no win" scenarios....some of the weenies may get caught chasing a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow solution that really doesn't exist. If its a stronger amplified low, you rain....maybe end as an inch or two of snow. If it goes east, its because there is less N stream energy available, and while a larger ratio of precip is frozen, there is less of it...so you still get a 1-3" type of deal.

There really isn't much worth monitoring east of the Berkshires and that has been apparent for several days.

Most potential involving cold fronts is like that.

@MJO812.

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