ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GEFS east of 18z not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GFS colder but also weaker and it flies through the area quickly. Reminds me of the 12z Euro. Key for bigger totals in NNE will be the upslope. The synoptic piece should be good for up to 10”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Is it far enough East for ct to be in the game for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lol sharpest cut off ever moderate event here 5 to 10 miles away almost nothing That's a pivotal issue with ptype and how they label the previous 3hr QPF as either rain or snow. That's why it's jagged contours right up through here and into Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Some of the sharpest cut offs I've seen. Look at number 17. 5 minute drive from nothing to a snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's a pivotal issue with ptype and how they label the previous 3hr QPF as either rain or snow. That's why it's jagged contours right up through here and into Maine. That's odd because GFS is available in 1 hour increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 CMC a little east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Some of the sharpest cut offs I've seen. Look at number 17. 5 minute drive from nothing to a snowstorm lol COD does this too. So if you're transitioning from RA to SN it'll overdo it on the snow on the NW edge of the time steps. If the model is tagging the ptype at 18hr to be snow, Pivotal is calling the QPF in that previous 3hr or 6hr interval to be snow when the truth is somewhere in that period it flipper from RA to SN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's odd because GFS is available in 1 hour increments Yeah...they should incorporate them into the algorithms even if they don't produce all of the maps at 1hr intervals. The depth is computed by the model so the positive depth change will be more smooth than the vendor clowns. You'll see here the precip is just starting to mix in central MA under those purple reflectivities. Pivotal is throwing 3-4" of snow there along the CT river. The positive depth change only indicates about 0.5". edit…the first two maps in central Maine are an even better example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Euro gonna pull one out? Everything starting to cave to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...they should incorporate them into the algorithms even if they don't produce all of the maps at 1hr intervals. The depth is computed by the model so the positive depth change will be more smooth than the vendor clowns. You'll see here the precip is just starting to mix in central MA under those purple reflectivities. Pivotal is throwing 3-4" of snow there along the CT river. The positive depth change only indicates about 0.5". One thing I learned from messing around with the raw files is that a lot of these contour maps are providing an auto-gradient between data points that actually implies level of precision that doesn't actually exist when you look at them using a block grid plot. Except for the hires like HRRR and 3km, of course, those models are extremely detailed. Really actually makes you appreciate that no, you aren't supposed use the 48hr HRRR for questioning the GFS's synoptics lol, but it absolutely provides a look at a resolution of detail that simply isn't possible with a 0.25 degree grid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ukie? Crap model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Crap model Ya it’s always drunk and off it’s rocker…was just curious. Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 0z Euro not caving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z Euro not caving Game on! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, joey2002 said: Backed off a bit from the crazy 18z run, but still looks better than 12z for CT/MA marginal areas. meh maybe a inch less but snows in the same areas looks like a nice advisory event weathermodels is a tad higher then that map either way nice little storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR is very snowy for CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: HRRR is very snowy for CT lol warning event for alot of us 6z NAM looks less amped so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 NAM is east of 0z but not like the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 soundings are barely above freezing when the heavy stuff moves in here just need a slight shift and would be a ton of fun.. changes over eventually but looks like low end advisory amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 NAM is fairly snowy up here…much to my chagrin 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GFS looks better 6z GEFS coming out and look better.. Euro might win this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Definitely colder on nam and gfs. A little less dynamic overall so big totals aren’t happening, but could be an advisory deal into ORH county and adjacent into CT. It’s such a weird setup so low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3K NAM looks reasonable to me. Kind of meh for many, but I think it highlights the areas to watch. Maybe a little too aggressive in some those spots for snow, but gives you the idea. It’s real tenuous though so beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3K NAM looks reasonable to me. Kind of meh for many, but I think it highlights the areas to watch. Maybe a little too aggressive in some those spots for snow, but gives you the idea. It’s real tenuous though so beware. If it were to snow. What timeframe are we looking at? Like midday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it were to snow. What timeframe are we looking at? Like midday? I think 2ish give or take. Probably goes to sleet first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: NAM is fairly snowy up here…much to my chagrin Pants rising ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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