CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looks like the 18z HRRR cut back a bit. I think anything more than maybe an inch or so could be tough SE of Ray to ORH to TOL. Roughly anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: May be uncertainty nearby though. Might prefer to change everyone to a headline at the same package issuance to avoid confusion. But in general no one in the north will alter what they do whether there’s a warning or not, ha. I could see it mattering more in suburbia/urban corridor to get the word out? Yeah, I think it's the Portland and Manchester crowds that drive the bus with issuing these products, which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the 18z HRRR cut back a bit. I think anything more than maybe an inch or so could be tough SE of Ray to ORH to TOL. Roughly anyways. Better here. Juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Will can help with this. About a week after superstorm 93 we had an event with the antecedent day having bees flying around. Rain began and I noticed mid evening snow mixing in. The next morning I cleared 6 inches. I am certainly not predicting that for mby but it seems similar in nature including a cold stab immediately afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yeah, you guys are still within the window for issuing the warning and aren’t “late” or anything. Maybe BTV is just really early. It’s just always interesting to see a warning from them sometimes a day before a warning from right across the border. At this hour, there are warnings in VT and Maine but not for the Whites. I don’t think there is that much uncertainty up here. Yeah, 48 hours lead time is a LONG time for a warning. I tend to think it's too much time and the public often gets confused when the snow is supposed to start. Also there are plenty of events that slide away or cut north inside the last 48 hours. We're always confident...until we're not. 13 minutes ago, mreaves said: We are also further west so we get the weather first That's honestly the argument most times. Just now, PhineasC said: Yeah, I think it's the Portland and Manchester crowds that drive the bus with issuing these products, which makes sense. As far as hype goes, yes. But the timing of issuing I don't much care who lives there, I mostly try and hit high traffic news times. Before they wake up, after dinner, before the 11 pm news, etc. CAR just happened to opt for 10 am today which made us stick out. We wanted to see all the 12z guidance before making a southern extent warning call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR still pretty agressive for my hood. Not sure I buy anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Will can help with this. About a week after superstorm 93 we had an event with the antecedent day having bees flying around. Rain began and I noticed mid evening snow mixing in. The next morning I cleared 6 inches. I am certainly not predicting that for mby but it seems similar in nature including a cold stab immediately afterwards. St Patty's Day night. I remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR trying to flip to SN by like midday here, would be better if this were an overnight type deal, daytime snow in march, especially with antecedent airmass being scoured away is not a good snowmaker imho, unless it absolutely rips, will be windy though especially if that upper jet streak mixes down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, 48 hours lead time is a LONG time for a warning. I tend to think it's too much time and the public often gets confused when the snow is supposed to start. Also there are plenty of events that slide away or cut north inside the last 48 hours. We're always confident...until we're not. That's honestly the argument most times. As far as hype goes, yes. But the timing of issuing I don't much care who lives there, I mostly try and hit high traffic news times. Before they wake up, after dinner, before the 11 pm news, etc. CAR just happened to opt for 10 am today which made us stick out. We wanted to see all the 12z guidance before making a southern extent warning call. Appreciate the insight, it all makes sense as to the timing. Probably best to wait for the best info before making the call. I think the colors on the advisory maps only matters to the deranged weenies here like me anyway. One thing BTV does that I find weird is they issue exact numbers for snowfall forecasts (like Stowe will be shown at 12.7", Burlington 10.3" etc.). I find that to be kinda abnormal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: St Patty's Day night. I remember that. Yes! I think it was a Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Advys hoisted for ORH, Tolland, Ct Valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: Appreciate the insight, it all makes sense as to the timing. Probably best to wait for the best info before making the call. I think the colors on the advisory maps only matters to the deranged weenies here like me anyway. One thing BTV does that I find weird is they issue exact numbers for snowfall forecasts (like Stowe will be shown at 12.7", Burlington 10.3" etc.). I find that to be kinda abnormal. It's the default setting to be honest. There are arguments for and against. One number (it shouldn't be to the tenths though) is just the middle and most likely forecast. But ranges show uncertainty better. The problem is ours aren't dynamic like Ryan's can be. So we only can ever say 8-12" or 12-18", never 10-14". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Appreciate the insight, it all makes sense as to the timing. Probably best to wait for the best info before making the call. I think the colors on the advisory maps only matters to the deranged weenies here like me anyway. One thing BTV does that I find weird is they issue exact numbers for snowfall forecasts (like Stowe will be shown at 12.7", Burlington 10.3" etc.). I find that to be kinda abnormal. ALY does that too, but not all the time... earlier it had 2.3" for around here, now a range is spit out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I am once again surrounded by advisories, with just a hazard outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yes! I think it was a Wednesday? Yes, and then a week later there was a marginal 8-10" storm for north of the pike....basically a front ender at 32-33F isothermal sounding. That was poorly forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z NAM going west a solid tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM going west a solid tick. Yeah stronger for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM going west a solid tick. Much better here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, and then a week later there was a marginal 8-10" storm for north of the pike....basically a front ender at 32-33F isothermal sounding. That was poorly forecasted. Right! That one a week later gave me about 10. That per recall did it until a rogue 2 inches deep into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Much better here. Yeah the dynamics look much better on that run....hopefully it plays out with stronger dynamics. Weak and strung out it not going to be as fun....even if it might get 1.5" of slush on the weak scenario versus 0.7" on the stronger scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3km is actually snowier for SNE and more potent with the dynamics than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 NAM kuchera is nearly 20" here. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3km is actually snowier for SNE and more potent with the dynamics than 12z. Can you post it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, tavwtby said: HRRR trying to flip to SN by like midday here, would be better if this were an overnight type deal, daytime snow in march, especially with antecedent airmass being scoured away is not a good snowmaker imho, unless it absolutely rips, will be windy though especially if that upper jet streak mixes down Its all about the rates…if it’s snowing heavy(inch an hr stuff) it’s gonna accumulate daytime or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can you post it will. Kuchera (not posting 10 to 1 in this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Kuchera (not posting 10 to 1 in this) Thank you. I’ll take 5 plus inches…that would get me close to 40” on the year. Still a good amount below average, but more respectable for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looks like the 3k nam is having those issues along the nose of that upper level jet…specifically the poleward exit region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like the 3k nam is having those issues along the nose of that upper level jet…specifically the poleward exit region. The end output is not crazy though. Seems in line with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kuchera (not posting 10 to 1 in this) Jeezuz, that’s a plastering out here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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