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March 12 Rain to…more rain? Maybe some snow

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

Fired up the old wxstar4000 sim

Great Snow 1717
Great Snow 1717

we will recognize the weenie outfit...

OceanStWx
OceanStWx

I thought with his prominence he upslopes in every direction?

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 6:03 PM, powderfreak said:

Euro is pretty weak on the whole with moisture.

84DA7CF3-30AE-4A93-83CB-BBA4C739983F.thumb.png.d840a206f5202b1ba98fa0156028ca05.png

 

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Last few Euro runs have been pretty zzzzzz for sure. The mesos are still pretty wet here so hopefully just a Euro fail. I will take any snow at this point. Hopefully at least an inch liquid to resurface the groomers. 

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 6:12 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, just enough to push this year ahead of 11/12 on the futility list for me.  I’ve already well surpassed 15/16 which was a complete disaster out here. 

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It's been that bad? i give the winter a C here, slighlty below average snow, plenty of cold, I've seen worse. 2012 I was in T-shirt by the end of Feb with little snow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 6:51 PM, weatherwiz said:

You would think large-scale lift should be enough for copious amounts of QPF. I don't think I've seen this posted anywhere but this 500 jet may be the strongest I've ever seen (or certainly up there). 

image.png.f52b63033ab62013eef8d9ec3efc95d3.png

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There will be some good precip rates, but duration is an issue. This thing will be screaming northeast.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 6:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There will be some good precip rates, but duration is an issue. This thing will be screaming northeast.

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That's why I'm not all that enthused down this way for much in the way of accumulations outside of the NW Hills. I think probably much of, if not, all of CT ends up seeing some frozen precipitation but the duration will be too brief. A big question of sleet vs. snow too which would have at least some impact on travel/road conditions. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 7:04 PM, weatherwiz said:

That's why I'm not all that enthused down this way for much in the way of accumulations outside of the NW Hills. I think probably much of, if not, all of CT ends up seeing some frozen precipitation but the duration will be too brief. A big question of sleet vs. snow too which would have at least some impact on travel/road conditions. 

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There will be 1-3 all the way to SE CT with 2-4  and then 3-6 respectively as you move NW

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 6:53 PM, PhineasC said:

Once again GYX waits until the last second to issue a warning. BTV is always like a day ahead.

This one seems to have GYX kinda confused just based on the discos and P&C. 

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Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow.

On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 7:22 PM, OceanStWx said:

Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow.

On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow.

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Phin is the DIT of the great white North lol 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 7:22 PM, OceanStWx said:

Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow.

On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow.

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Yeah, you guys are still within the window for issuing the warning and aren’t “late” or anything. Maybe BTV is just really early. It’s just always interesting to see a warning from them sometimes a day before a warning from right across the border. At this hour, there are warnings in VT and Maine but not for the Whites. I don’t think there is that much uncertainty up here. 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 7:22 PM, OceanStWx said:

Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow.

On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow.

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We are also further west so we get the weather first :P

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 7:27 PM, PhineasC said:

Yeah, you guys are still within the window for issuing the warning and aren’t “late” or anything. Maybe BTV is just really early. It’s just always interesting to see a warning from them sometimes a day before a warning from right across the border. At this hour, there are warnings in VT and Maine but not for the Whites. I don’t think there is that much uncertainty up here. 

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May be uncertainty nearby though.  Might prefer to change everyone to a headline at the same package issuance to avoid confusion.  But in general no one in the north will alter what they do whether there’s a warning or not, ha. I could see it mattering more in suburbia/urban corridor to get the word out?

It could also just be 4-7” and Advisory level to be honest?

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