40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Totally buy that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: I didn't see the HRRR posted anywhere, Looks like the comments were on the 3K Nam that steve posted. oh shit...lol. I read Scoot's post about the HRRR first. Skim reading ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Euro is pretty weak on the whole with moisture. Looks like I get my regional min. We get downsloped after the low level fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totally buy that. Yeah, just enough to push this year ahead of 11/12 on the futility list for me. I’ve already well surpassed 15/16 which was a complete disaster out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Nice little N Shore CJ ala 12/5/03.....too bad its 99% rain this time lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Euro is pretty weak on the whole with moisture. Last few Euro runs have been pretty zzzzzz for sure. The mesos are still pretty wet here so hopefully just a Euro fail. I will take any snow at this point. Hopefully at least an inch liquid to resurface the groomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, just enough to push this year ahead of 11/12 on the futility list for me. I’ve already well surpassed 15/16 which was a complete disaster out here. It's been that bad? i give the winter a C here, slighlty below average snow, plenty of cold, I've seen worse. 2012 I was in T-shirt by the end of Feb with little snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: It's been that bad? i give the winter a C here, slighlty below average snow, plenty of cold, I've seen worse. 2012 I was in T-shirt by the end of Feb with little snow. Yes, your area is well ahead of even the elevated areas in Franklin Co. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 You would think large-scale lift should be enough for copious amounts of QPF. I don't think I've seen this posted anywhere but this 500 jet may be the strongest I've ever seen (or certainly up there). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Once again GYX waits until the last second to issue a warning. BTV is always like a day ahead. This one seems to have GYX kinda confused just based on the discos and P&C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 That sucks they don't do balloon launches from CHH anymore. OKX though could shatter the daily record and all-time record for 500mb winds measured but the issue is the jet streak moves overhead between balloon launches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: You would think large-scale lift should be enough for copious amounts of QPF. I don't think I've seen this posted anywhere but this 500 jet may be the strongest I've ever seen (or certainly up there). There will be some good precip rates, but duration is an issue. This thing will be screaming northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/03/first-call-for-stormy-saturday.html https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/03/final-call-for-stormy-saturday.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Yeah, This system is flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: It's been that bad? i give the winter a C here, slighlty below average snow, plenty of cold, I've seen worse. 2012 I was in T-shirt by the end of Feb with little snow. Near and south of the pike has been much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There will be some good precip rates, but duration is an issue. This thing will be screaming northeast. That's why I'm not all that enthused down this way for much in the way of accumulations outside of the NW Hills. I think probably much of, if not, all of CT ends up seeing some frozen precipitation but the duration will be too brief. A big question of sleet vs. snow too which would have at least some impact on travel/road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: That's why I'm not all that enthused down this way for much in the way of accumulations outside of the NW Hills. I think probably much of, if not, all of CT ends up seeing some frozen precipitation but the duration will be too brief. A big question of sleet vs. snow too which would have at least some impact on travel/road conditions. There will be 1-3 all the way to SE CT with 2-4 and then 3-6 respectively as you move NW 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, This system is flying. They always are unless it’s a cutter then they last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be some surprised folks. Qpf queens be queenin Jack's be jacking Kev just smilin 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There will be 1-3 all the way to SE CT with 2-4 and then 3-6 respectively as you move NW SE CT might struggle, but Im thinking 2-3” here is a good bet from what I’m seeing. If things get heavy, maybe we push 4”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 22 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Once again GYX waits until the last second to issue a warning. BTV is always like a day ahead. This one seems to have GYX kinda confused just based on the discos and P&C. Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow. On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow. On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow. Phin is the DIT of the great white North lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gonna be some surprised folks. Qpf queens be queenin Jack's be jacking Kev just smilin How much are you thinking for Kev? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow. On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow. Yeah, you guys are still within the window for issuing the warning and aren’t “late” or anything. Maybe BTV is just really early. It’s just always interesting to see a warning from them sometimes a day before a warning from right across the border. At this hour, there are warnings in VT and Maine but not for the Whites. I don’t think there is that much uncertainty up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow. On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow. We are also further west so we get the weather first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How much are you thinking for Kev? 4/5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 4/5 0.8"? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 4/5 I have him for 2-4". I could see 5" if everything breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yeah, you guys are still within the window for issuing the warning and aren’t “late” or anything. Maybe BTV is just really early. It’s just always interesting to see a warning from them sometimes a day before a warning from right across the border. At this hour, there are warnings in VT and Maine but not for the Whites. I don’t think there is that much uncertainty up here. May be uncertainty nearby though. Might prefer to change everyone to a headline at the same package issuance to avoid confusion. But in general no one in the north will alter what they do whether there’s a warning or not, ha. I could see it mattering more in suburbia/urban corridor to get the word out? It could also just be 4-7” and Advisory level to be honest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now