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March 12 Rain to…more rain? Maybe some snow


HoarfrostHubb
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  On 3/10/2022 at 6:29 PM, dendrite said:

Am I the only one not wowed by the wind with this?

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It's really not a big deal anymore, we're sacrificing a really fun dynamic system so Boston can get s slushy inch of snow (and yes, we totally control the outcome). 

 

I'll be in VT most of next week so I hope models trend back a bit to a more dynamic system with a bit more QPF. 

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  On 3/10/2022 at 6:41 PM, mob1 said:

The low slipping east and not getting vertically stacked also tempers the upslope aspect quite a bit. 

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That it does.  GFS, GGEM and ICON seem to wrap it up more and have much more significant looking upslope signals.  At those backside thermal profiles, even 0.25” QPF can pad stats 4-8” of fluff.  That’s what will be needed to get 10-12”+ IMO.

Sort of like it’s a 5-7” 10:1 synoptic snow and the upslope is the key to really taking it up to that 10-12”+.

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  On 3/10/2022 at 6:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

H85 doesn't even close off until its over E MA.

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This whole thing looks almost specious to me frankly.    I may not have the best handle on this, admittedly ...   But, this has been either leaning, or just 'acting like it wants to' lean more stretched/W-E orientation.  The GFS merely doesn't want to give up?   might be that - Euro comes a little more E ... 

There'll be a wave on the boundary... I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up weaker as we close in.  

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