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3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

HVSnowLover

By HVSnowLover,
in New York City Metro

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here. 

12z NAM also backed off on the QPF along the coast vs. the 06z run. This thing will be moving along quickly.

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White Gorilla
White Gorilla

Snowhole19 jumps on a no snow forecast with great enthusiasm?  Shocking!! 

snowman19
snowman19

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM an

HVSnowLover
HVSnowLover

I hope everyone in Sloatsburg is ok if they get 6 inches tomorrow.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah, I don't see much for the coast here-very rare to have precip last long enough for the cold air to come in not to mention rain warmed ground and middle of the day in mid-March....maybe a coating on the grass...

You do realize this will be an enlogated low ? This isn't the typical rain to snow situation. The coast will see snow.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You do realize this will be an enlogated low ? This isn't the typical rain to snow situation. The coast will see snow.

Will see snow, but accumulation?  Not much if any.    

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

People are underestimating this even near the coast. Flash freezes will happen.

Unlikely.  Very rare event.  Once the drier air rushes in, things will dry out fast especially with it being mid-day in March.

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

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Posted
2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are underestimating this even near the coast. Flash freezes will happen.

It will snow for several hours probably but the good stuff so to speak which the coast really needs for accumulation in March will probably only be a 1-2 hour window sometime tomorrow between noon and 2. 

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here. 

This is so damn spot on. I almost have nothing else to say.
also factor in ground temps will be extremely warm from today. So snow will have a real hard time sticking. I think by the time the 20s hit the coast your looking at light snow. 
 

I do think everyone sees a paste of white, as it will not be melting with temps dropping

snow removal and salting will be needed everywhere 

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is so damn spot on. I almost have nothing else to say.
also factor in ground temps will be extremely warm from today. So snow will have a real hard time sticking. I think by the time the 20s hit the coast your looking at light snow. 
 

I do think everyone sees a paste of white, as it will not be melting with temps dropping

snow removal and salting will be needed everywhere 

Hopefully the winds won’t be much of a factor along with the paste. Don’t need the tree and power line issues.

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

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Honestly this could go either way, a small shift in track and a 1-2 hour difference in changeover could mean less than 1 inch vs 3. Of course lean low NYC Metro and Southern LI anytime it's a March storm. I'd say HV North and West of the Tappan Zee probably pretty good shape for at least 3-6. The wildcard area probably Northern LI/Immediate NW of the city.      

 

 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
Just now, HVSnowLover said:

The 1 inch liquid zone on CMC would probably be the best dynamics and thats the zone I was just talking about with the best chance of a surprise

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=qpf_024h&rh=2022031112&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 

That's what it'll come down to.

That's how you get accumulations during the day in mid March. 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GGEM is similar to the RGEM. Changeover in NYC a few hours later than the NAM and GFS. So less accumulation. Untreated surfaces could still get slick with temperatures rapidly falling through 20s.

AAC73134-4A8C-47E7-81FE-C811E8E2B901.thumb.png.e0be480c5a2ec4fc6f67c4e8cba8519e.png
5D60B6E5-787C-4035-B66A-CFEADF877BE3.thumb.png.05b1668b46824d92e2d267656df05b1b.png

03F694AB-3212-4D96-B5D5-4481FC5BC7E4.thumb.png.39cb954bdf538a9b137fbd8e34a92b64.png

 

The z's confuse me but basically If NYC changes over by noon decent chance of upside, if after 1 pm much less chance.    

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are underestimating this even near the coast. Flash freezes will happen.

That I do think will happen-tons of black ice on the roads Sat night. But the accumulating snow could go either way. As others mentioned an hour or two difference in the changeover time will mean a lot. NW of the city should have a decent period of snow. If it can snow hard in the city for a while it should stick since temps will be dropping below freezing. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Thats why it's kind of odd the HRRR and RGEM are so far apart, those are the mesos that have done best all winter. 

 

The RGEM really sucks in anafrontal type scenarios or where you have incoming cold air...it usually is way too slow bleeding it in...the changeover will probably be closer to what the NAM or HRRR shows but I still do not expect much snow near the metro once you have the gradient flow through 700 being most NW...the HRRR shows snow 20-23Z in NYC but reality is that would be flurries...the period from 17-19z when you're more NNE or N is when you'd see your snow.  Any sort of NW flow in a rain-snow scenario here never pans out...you need to be N-NE

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STORMANLI

STORMANLI

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

 Z time or Zulu time is the time in Greenwich UK.  It is 5 hours ahead of NYC now but on Sunday when daylight savings time returns it will be 4 hours ahead.  Also known as Greenwich Mean Time.

Sorry, should have added that Z is for Greenwich UK being at zero degrees longitude.

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah, I don't see much for the coast here-very rare to have precip last long enough for the cold air to come in not to mention rain warmed ground and middle of the day in mid-March....maybe a coating on the grass...

Could just cut and paste this statement, story of this winter...

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

How has the HREF been this season? It was somewhat too aggressive with the last slip/snow event this week. Is there a 12z HREF out yet? 

If temps are marginal it will be too high usually...it showed 2-3 mean across whole area last event which was obviously too much...it has 1-2 from NYC to the Suffolk border and 2-4 NYC west with some 4-5 inch areas Orange County and NW NJ

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