3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[Snowlover11]

Just now, LoboLeader1 said:

 

might get burned.

[BxSnowWx37]

I dont think models are handling the power from the cold coming itself,if the low is maturing riding up to the bm then it's gonna snow hard in nyc. Let's not forget the extreme precip rates with colliding airmasses, it might be a case of western areas getting their 6+..coastal areas catching up and passing their totals due to the enhanced precip shield. Things to look for folks..

[BxSnowWx37]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM has the changeover in NYC around the same time as the HRRR at 16z.

 

 

Nyc gets creamed for a while if this happens which I was just alluding to.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Nyc gets creamed for a while if this happens which I was just alluding to.

Yes better

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM has the changeover in NYC around the same time as the HRRR at 16z.

 

 

Further east

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

I dont think models are handling the power from the cold coming itself,if the low is maturing riding up to the bm then it's gonna snow hard in nyc. Let's not forget the extreme precip rates with colliding airmasses, it might be a case of western areas getting their 6+..coastal areas catching up and passing their totals due to the enhanced precip shield. Things to look for folks..

It's going to be very difficult for the city on east to accumulate anywhere near 6 inches. This thing is flying and is basically over by late afternoon. I think the nam is way overdone in my area in MHV also. We are not getting 9-10 inches. It would be great by I don't see anybody in the area getting more than 6-7 inches N and W and far less NYC and east. 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM has the changeover in NYC around the same time as the HRRR at 16z.

 

 

Intense dynamics in play. Will probably be a sleet vs snow battle for a bit with heavier rates leaning towards snow.

[chrisNJ]

3 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Winter storm watch up for my area and Warren county in NJ.

Curious when the changeover occurs in Warren County.  11 AM-12 PM?  Also curious if the roads will remain just wet since it'll be in the mid 30s or if they become a mess with the heavy rates.  We have to load a marching band truck and travel to Central NJ around 12-1 and I think it could be a mess up that way. 

[SnoSki14]

I think travel impacts are being underestimated. Models clearly showing temps crashing into the 20s by Saturday afternoon especially just west of the city. 

Good thing it's Saturday and not a weekday. 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Rain to sleet than snow. NYC only needs 2.1” to make it to 20” on the season. Looks like very slick conditions as everything freezes solid with temperatures eventually falling below 20°.

 

Very unusual to see temperatures drop into the 20s during the day in mid March. As long as dynamics hold this will be a flash freeze event.

Forecast lows in the teens tomorrow night with wind chills near or below 0 with gusty conditions. Very impressive given very warm March so far. 

[sussexcountyobs]

14 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

Curious when the changeover occurs in Warren County.  11 AM-12 PM?  Also curious if the roads will remain just wet since it'll be in the mid 30s or if they become a mess with the heavy rates.  We have to load a marching band truck and travel to Central NJ around 12-1 and I think it could be a mess up that way. 

My gut tells me between 9 and 10am.. Roads will ice up quickly with temps crashing as the snow starts.

[BxSnowWx37]

34 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's going to be very difficult for the city on east to accumulate anywhere near 6 inches. This thing is flying and is basically over by late afternoon. I think the nam is way overdone in my area in MHV also. We are not getting 9-10 inches. It would be great by I don't see anybody in the area getting more than 6-7 inches N and W and far less NYC and east. 

Yeah im not on the 9 inch bandwagon either but with heavy precip and a flash freeze,I  think it piles up fast and I do think we reach 4 to 6 here in the city. Snow ratios are going increase as it gets colder also which should maximize accumulations before it ends 

[Tatamy]

16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

My gut tells me between 9 and 10am.. Roads will ice up quickly with temps crashing as the snow starts.

That’s probably a good time estimate.  I am anticipating the changeover about 8 AM out where I am in Bethlehem, PA.  One thing that I do not feel is being emphasized enough will be the strong winds which will result in blowing and drifting of the snow especially to the N and W of NYC.  Winds could reach 30-40 mph in gusts and this will have major impacts on travel in those areas.

[HeadInTheClouds]

RGEM 

 

[HVSnowLover]

Models kind of all over the place still, obviously NW will be better with this than SE although dynamics could make for a wild few hours near or even in the city. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

RGEM 

 

It's interesting how 24 hours out the NAM has double the RGEM for your area. NAM has been so fickle all winter. Probably best to go with an RGEM/CMC/Euro/HRRR blend at this point.     

[jm1220]

Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. 

I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. 

I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city. 

I'm sure somehow LI especially north shore will way overperform the city with this but agree the best chance for more significant snow (>3 inches) would be North and West of the Tappan Zee.  

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

If 12z runs come in showing the same thing(shift east) they will probably jump aboard.

Yes I think WWA would be extended to all of Westchester and NE NJ after the 12z suite

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's interesting how 24 hours out the NAM has double the RGEM for your area. NAM has been so fickle all winter. Probably best to go with an RGEM/CMC/Euro/HRRR blend at this point.     

Nam is horrible and the run to run changes are laughable. Last night's 00z 3k gave me less than an inch and today's 12z gives me 10. I don't trust it one bit. RGEM has been the far better meso. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. 

I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city. 

Any thoughts on how this compares to Christmas Day 2002?  Up until that storm I had never seen any real 'wraparound snow' follow heavy rain, but that one was pretty awesome - about 6" of absolute paste.   Haven't seen anything remotely close to that storm since then either.

[MJO812]

HRRR has done really well this winter 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Any thoughts on how this compares to Christmas Day 2002?  Up until that storm I had never seen any real 'wraparound snow' follow heavy rain, but that one was pretty awesome - about 6" of absolute paste.   Haven't seen anything remotely close to that storm since then either.

That storm bombed out near the coast 

[North and West]

Any clarity on timing, say like 6:40 am and you’re on a plane and trying to take off?


.

[HVSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has done really well this winter 

Thats why it's kind of odd the HRRR and RGEM are so far apart, those are the mesos that have done best all winter. 

[HVSnowLover]

18 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Nam is horrible and the run to run changes are laughable. Last night's 00z 3k gave me less than an inch and today's 12z gives me 10. I don't trust it one bit. RGEM has been the far better meso. 

NAM has support lol but I know this isn't the model you trust either

[HeadInTheClouds]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Thats why it's kind of odd the HRRR and RGEM are so far apart, those are the mesos that have done best all winter. 

HRRR is usually in it's best range under 12 hours. 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Any thoughts on how this compares to Christmas Day 2002?  Up until that storm I had never seen any real 'wraparound snow' follow heavy rain, but that one was pretty awesome - about 6" of absolute paste.   Haven't seen anything remotely close to that storm since then either.

This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here. 

yeah, I don't see much for the coast here-very rare to have precip last long enough for the cold air to come in not to mention rain warmed ground and middle of the day in mid-March....maybe a coating on the grass...