3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[BxSnowWx37]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hes annoying 

Every classroom needs a class clown,snowman is him.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

UKIE

 

More realistic than 12z 

[RU848789]

Euro is now an actual snowstorm for the 95 corridor.  Just arrived in FL to visit family, so I'll be pissed if I miss a good snowstorm, lol...

 

[Snowlover11]

meh, white rain expect for those far NW.  

 

 

edit Euro!

[brooklynwx99]

wow. ECMWF continues increasing the interaction of the TPV, notably lowering heights and leading to a colder solution

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

meh, white rain expect for those far NW 

I don't think so. Temperatures are plummeting as precip comes in. 

Dynamics FTW

[Roger Smith]

This thing is really moving along at warp speed, the dynamics could be quite intense. Thunder-sleet to heavy wind-driven snow for a few hours then clearing rapidly. (for NYC metro), and could see severe thunderstorms ahead of the sharp temp drop in eastern LI and se MA. Road crews will be confronted by flash freeze conditions shortly after the sleet begins. Think this will be particularly bad in ne NJ, lower Hudson and sw CT, gridlock traffic likely to develop as it will be mid-day Saturday in NYC metro unless people heed the weather warnings. Would expect something like 3-5" at most airports but 1.5-2 for Islip. 0.25 to 0.40" sleet l.e. before the snow portion. All gone by Monday. 

[SnoSki14]

Nam/HRRR getting a lot snowier.

[wishcast_hater]

I’m under a WWA for 2-5”. NWS trying to correct for dropping the ball on Wednesday. Looks like Snowman19 predictions of this storm going west and the southeast ridge pumping up warm air are out the window. He has 24 hours for things to change back in his favor. 

[brooklynwx99]

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

6z GFS even colder… the trend has been pretty impressive overall

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam/HRRR getting a lot snowier.

Yes

[MJO812]

6z gefs

[sussexcountyobs]

Winter storm watch up for my area and Warren county in NJ.

[Snowlover11]

we hug, we ride, we watch weenies multiple! besides snowman19.

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The model forecasts are very unusual for mid-March. I can’t remember the last time that NYC started as rain and 40s then changed to accumulating snow without a closed upper low. Progressive systems like this usually dry out before the rain can change over to snow. But it may be the all-time March record cold with this TPV phase that the models are keying in on.

 

 

2 consecutive monthly record low temperatures is impressive.

[ILoveWinter]

National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.

[Snowlover11]

10 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.

If 12z runs come in showing the same thing(shift east) they will probably jump aboard.

[snywx]

18 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.

If 12z continues the trend I would expect advisories to start flying for NE NJ and lower westchester. Most guidance now gives Orange County a 4-6” snowfall

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

If 12z continues the trend I would expect advisories to start flying for NE NJ and lower westchester. Most guidance now gives Orange County a 4-6” snowfall

Starting to look better for your area

[crossbowftw3]

8 minutes ago, snywx said:

If 12z continues the trend I would expect advisories to start flying for NE NJ and lower westchester. Most guidance now gives Orange County a 4-6” snowfall

And I’m one county away with WSW for 7-12, I don’t see the 12 for my area (that’d be elevation dependent) but 7-8” is a realistic goalpost 

 

ends up being kind of pointless in the end considering it’ll be vaporized by Wednesday but hey, we take what we can get especially if this is the end 

[snywx]

35 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

And I’m one county away with WSW for 7-12, I don’t see the 12 for my area (that’d be elevation dependent) but 7-8” is a realistic goalpost 

 

ends up being kind of pointless in the end considering it’ll be vaporized by Wednesday but hey, we take what we can get especially if this is the end 

What’s sad is even with the 3/9 event and tomorrow’s potential we still barely break 30” for the season. What a disaster

[hudsonvalley21]

43 minutes ago, snywx said:

If 12z continues the trend I would expect advisories to start flying for NE NJ and lower westchester. Most guidance now gives Orange County a 4-6” snowfall

Agree, and the WWA posted for Orange County is in that advisory criteria. Winter Storm Warning would be for 6”+ up this way. 
It will be interesting too see what the 12z runs show coming up.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree, and the WWA posted for Orange County is in that advisory criteria. Winter Storm Warning would be for 6”+ up this way. 
It will be interesting too see what the 12z runs show coming up.

12z HRRR has a nice area of 4-8”

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.

Not surprised given the unusual setup. They'll likely be behind the ball until the event begins. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

12z HRRR has a nice area of 4-8”

 

Nice trends 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

12z HRRR has a nice area of 4-8”

 

With the 12z run the HRRR has 4-8” anywhere along and to the N and W of I95.

[hudsonvalley21]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Not surprised given the unusual setup. They'll likely be behind the ball until the event begins. 

They could bump up things in their afternoon package after looking at the 12z runs

[LoboLeader1]