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3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

HVSnowLover

By HVSnowLover,
in New York City Metro

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White Gorilla
White Gorilla

Snowhole19 jumps on a no snow forecast with great enthusiasm?  Shocking!! 

snowman19
snowman19

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM an

HVSnowLover
HVSnowLover

I hope everyone in Sloatsburg is ok if they get 6 inches tomorrow.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

This thing is really moving along at warp speed, the dynamics could be quite intense. Thunder-sleet to heavy wind-driven snow for a few hours then clearing rapidly. (for NYC metro), and could see severe thunderstorms ahead of the sharp temp drop in eastern LI and se MA. Road crews will be confronted by flash freeze conditions shortly after the sleet begins. Think this will be particularly bad in ne NJ, lower Hudson and sw CT, gridlock traffic likely to develop as it will be mid-day Saturday in NYC metro unless people heed the weather warnings. Would expect something like 3-5" at most airports but 1.5-2 for Islip. 0.25 to 0.40" sleet l.e. before the snow portion. All gone by Monday. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 12:15 PM, bluewave said:

The model forecasts are very unusual for mid-March. I can’t remember the last time that NYC started as rain and 40s then changed to accumulating snow without a closed upper low. Progressive systems like this usually dry out before the rain can change over to snow. But it may be the all-time March record cold with this TPV phase that the models are keying in on.

 

 

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2 consecutive monthly record low temperatures is impressive.

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Snowlover11

Snowlover11

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 12:33 PM, ILoveWinter said:

National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.

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If 12z runs come in showing the same thing(shift east) they will probably jump aboard.

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 12:33 PM, ILoveWinter said:

National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.

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If 12z continues the trend I would expect advisories to start flying for NE NJ and lower westchester. Most guidance now gives Orange County a 4-6” snowfall

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crossbowftw3

crossbowftw3

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 12:53 PM, snywx said:

If 12z continues the trend I would expect advisories to start flying for NE NJ and lower westchester. Most guidance now gives Orange County a 4-6” snowfall

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And I’m one county away with WSW for 7-12, I don’t see the 12 for my area (that’d be elevation dependent) but 7-8” is a realistic goalpost 

 

ends up being kind of pointless in the end considering it’ll be vaporized by Wednesday but hey, we take what we can get especially if this is the end 

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 12:59 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

And I’m one county away with WSW for 7-12, I don’t see the 12 for my area (that’d be elevation dependent) but 7-8” is a realistic goalpost 

 

ends up being kind of pointless in the end considering it’ll be vaporized by Wednesday but hey, we take what we can get especially if this is the end 

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What’s sad is even with the 3/9 event and tomorrow’s potential we still barely break 30” for the season. What a disaster

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 12:53 PM, snywx said:

If 12z continues the trend I would expect advisories to start flying for NE NJ and lower westchester. Most guidance now gives Orange County a 4-6” snowfall

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Agree, and the WWA posted for Orange County is in that advisory criteria. Winter Storm Warning would be for 6”+ up this way. 
It will be interesting too see what the 12z runs show coming up.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2022 at 12:33 PM, ILoveWinter said:

National Weather Service still not biting for much of a snow threat in the immediate NYC metro, in fact you've got to get to Orange County before you find an Advisory. Expected accumulation in CPK is 0.6 and the high end amount is 2.

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Not surprised given the unusual setup. They'll likely be behind the ball until the event begins. 

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