3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[EastonSN+]

Would much rather get a light snowfall from a weaker system than rain and wind from a wound up one.

[HVSnowLover]

Every storm this winter has been wetter than modeled and also the CMC which has become sort of the go to model has almost double the qpf of the Euro so I wouldn't be too worried yet about not having enough precip with this.  I'd still be way more concerned about the rain/snow line reaching the coast than this being too dry.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

A low bombing from 996 to 972 in 12 hours isn't really strung out a crap, I think the Euro might be underdoing the qpf a bit and also it's unfortunate this storm is moving so fast. It goes from the Carolinas to east of Maine in 12 hours but it's certainly not weak.  

I haven’t seen the upper low maps but I’d assume those aren’t closing off until the storm is done for us. That’s what would really drive the precip west. If those stay strung out/not closed off, it may be more like a glorified frontal passage. 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I haven’t seen the upper low maps but I’d assume those aren’t closing off until the storm is done for us. That’s what would really drive the precip west. If those stay strung out/not closed off, it may be more like a glorified frontal passage. 

I wouldn't get too caught up with the OP Euro, the CMC is still throwing very heavy snow back into the catskills and Central NYS, the track is obviously further west of the Euro but not by that much. 

 

   

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Gulf origin storm, amps, no NAO/AO blocking, no 50/50, thunderstorms blowing up in the SE, this is going to correct northwest. The models are underestimating the SE ridge right now 

Okay so you don't agree with ANY of the models.  There must be a special Snowhole model you run out of your basement.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

A low bombing from 996 to 972 in 12 hours isn't really strung out a crap, I think the Euro might be underdoing the qpf a bit and also it's unfortunate this storm is moving so fast. It goes from the Carolinas to east of Maine in 12 hours but it's certainly not weak.  

The storm moving so fast is a product of the lack of blocking this year.

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I said yesterday for things to be interesting we'd need a way east trend to account for the typical last minute NW trend. We have now gotten the way east trend. There is now a little wiggle room for interior parts of the subforum. For NYC and southeast it's still basically going to take a miracle to see more than an inch or two.   

this is basically a "climo" storm and what you typically see in March.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Okay so you don't agree with ANY of the models.  There must be a special Snowhole model you run out of your basement.

 

All of the models look like the Euro and NAM? You are so vapid….

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d rather have the windy rainstorm and inland finally gets their overdue snowstorm than the strung out crap storm being described. Way too many of those this winter. 

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if inland areas make up their snowfall deficit compared to us with this storm.  I dont care what the indices say, it's nearly impossible for them to have this little snowfall compared to us.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

All of the models look like the Euro and NAM? You are so vapid….

In your statement you said "the models" so that basically means ALL the models.  You never said that there was a single model you agreed with.

 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All of the models look like the Euro? You are so vapid….

Every model has trended toward the Euro and the Euro just keeps trending east, Euro is either going to regain respect with this storm or it can be thrown in the garbage. 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if inland areas make up their snowfall deficit compared to us with this storm.  I dont care what the indices say, it's nearly impossible for them to have this little snowfall compared to us.

Agree I mean well inland can still snow into late March/April, I know people say pattern this, winter over etc but who knows what could pop up for them still. Also I still think Euro is too dry and factoring in ratios most of upstate NY and NE will do well with this, maybe there will be less snow west of Syracuse.  

[romba]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All of the models look like the Euro and NAM? You are so vapid….

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree I mean well inland can still snow into late March/April, I know people say pattern this, winter over etc but who knows what could pop up for them still. Also I still think Euro is too dry and factoring in ratios most of upstate NY and NE will do well with this, maybe there will be less snow west of Syracuse.  

Yeah and just because winter ends doesn't mean the snow season ends.  Sure, we're out of deep winter, but this is one of the most unpredictable times of the year.  So it's hilarious when people try to broadbrush patterns and make very specific predictions when we all know that the chances are none of us will be right.

 

[mikem81]

Thought the GEPS was interesting in terms of track

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, romba said:

lol oops, if that was his 5th post he won't have a comeback for what I just said to him last.  He'll probably go all American Psycho tonight waiting for tomorrow to make his "comeback."

Everyone lock your doors tonight.

 

[mikem81]

Take with the typical NAVY grain of salt, but noticeable this close to an event

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

HRRR basically has the change line to EWR-NYC by 16Z so it seems to indicate its going to go with snow to the coast 18-22...overall the HRRR has been fairly good recently to my surprise at 24-48...it never was impressed near the metro with this last storm and was rainier than the NAM/RGEM at 18-24 hours out

[mob1]

NAM is a lot more amped and west

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

NAM is a lot more amped and west

I wish the Nam was right for yesterday's storm.

[mob1]

Man, if I can lock this in for my ski trip... 

 

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Man, if I can lock this in for my ski trip... 

 

That’s a gradient of nothing to 2’ in about 85 miles, with my house at 6-7” in the middle of that. Very much vibes of 12/17/20 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

That’s a gradient of nothing to 2’ in about 85 miles, with my house at 6-7” in the middle of that. Very much vibes of 12/17/20 

Considering it's riding a frontal boundary, the gradient will likely be significant. I'm really agonizing over my decision to lock in my trip to Killington, I should've left the option open to change to Whiteface if it trends West. 

[mob1]

Hi Res NAM

[snowman19]

The new NAM   https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM   https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

This proves right here that snowman19 should be named rainman19. 

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This proves right here that snowman19 should be named rainman19. 

He does this not because he hates snow, but likes to piss off people in general.  Trolls and losers are of such grain. 

[mob1]

RGEM

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM/NAM are probably too far west if you ask me but I still do not like the setup anyway near the coast with the 3k nam or Euro setup 

[wdrag]

Hi!  I toss this in here.  It will soon get lost, but if anyone catches this.. you're welcome to join the North Jersey Weather Observers group in a zoom meeting that begins at 7PM.  The pertinent details are in the link below.  Capacity is 100 so priority goes to the NJWO, but I'm sure if you're interested in processes that I use to make a forecast from trends In Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather and use of Robert Harts FSU page, plus use of NWS graphics,  this would be a good time to sit in and monitor - ask questions.  I'm sure the first 15-20 minutes of the meeting that starts at 7, will be dedicated to the NJWO minutes/business. 

 

I'll be logged on  early but won't go into any Q&A, forecasting processes until after 7PM.  This will be more or less the way I prepare for my winter hazardous wx 6AM FB post (BOS-AVL). 

Please don't try to use the members only link.  Use the longer(in blue) zoom link below that.  Begin logging in at 650 and if any problems, Dave Dabour will try to ease the access. Thank you.  

https://njwo.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/zoom-meeting-members-only-link/